2024 ELECTION THREAD
The next presidential race will be here soon! Please see current Bovada odds. Thoughts?
Beshear my boy. 8c on Polymarket was v nice.
I have no idea why I like Beshear. I know nothing about it. Just seemed like a good dark horse pick. Ride or die.
He's like +800 on polymarket right now. If you're only getting +450 you're rugging yourself.
Shapiro is very close to ev right now
Where does one get a copy of Agenda 47???? Here???
True I didn’t care much to double and triple check if the post was legit or not since no link couldn’t be found and I wasn’t very interest in it since I believe project 2025 , filled with ex advisors and friends of trump , is a real possibility .
Especially from trump actions .
Regardless , taking your link and see details from it :
https://rncplatform.donaldjtrump.com/?_g...
I can’t copy paste …..strange but anyway.
They want to dismantle the education department and promote prayers and reading the bible in class .
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_...
The Project seeks to infuse the to government and society with conservative Christian values.
Project 2025 recommends abolishing the Department of Education, whose programs would be transferred to other agencies or terminated.[22][23]
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Another thing said will go after those (democrats) who used government as a weapon (….) and make Republican have greater control on Washington .
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_...
It proposes reclassifying tens of thousands of federal civil service workers as political appointees, in order to replace them with people loyal to the president.[8][9] Proponents argue it would dismantle what they view as a vast, unaccountable, and mostly liberal government bureaucracy.
Obviously they won’t announce the very bad stuff but we can feel the tone of what’s coming .
It’s fascinating how effective the messaging of ‘MAGAs are freaks and very weird dudes’ has been and how this seems to have enraged them more than the fascist stuff
I guess it makes sense. When you remove legitimacy of their threat and just stick to calling them creepy incel weirdos who shouldn’t be taken seriously on any level like (insert certain posters ITT) and shouldn’t be engaged with or normalized they struggle with demanding to be taken seriously. Goes back to the argument that the second you’ve chosen to engage bad faith actors in actual arguments to prove them wrong rather than laugh in their ****ing face and call them the deeply unserious incel clowns they are you’ve lost the argument by propping them up instead of shitting on them further
Some new polls came out today (the overall # of polls will be in parenthesis) that includes all candidates running. She has improved over Biden's numbers in 12 states and is tied in 1 (WA). All polls here were started after 7/21/24 when Biden officially dropped out:
AZ(3): Kamala trails by 2.3% now, Biden was trailing by 5.5% prior standing in AZ (multiple polls). Latest poll Kamala is up by 4% !!!
CA(1): Kamala up by 24%, Biden was up by 20% in CA (multiple polls)
FL(2): Kamala trails by 7.5%, Biden trailed by 8.8% (multiple polls)
GA(5): Kamala trails by 2.6%, Biden trailed by 5.9% (multiple polls). Latest Poll is tied ...
ME(1): Kamala leads by 8% now after Biden had been trailing by 1% in the latest poll
MI(6): Kamala now leads by 0.8%, Biden had been trailing by 2.4% (multiple polls). Latest poll has Kamala ahead by 12% !!!
MN(3): Kamala leads by 6.3% now, Biden had been tied (multiple polls). Latest poll has Kamala ahead by 10% !!!
NC(2): Kamala trails by 2% now, Biden had been trailing by 6.9% (multiple polls). Latest poll has Kamala trailing by 1% ...
NH(2): Kamala still leads by 6% now. Biden had been trailing by 1% in the latest poll.
NV(2): Kamala trails by 1% now. Biden had been trailing by 5.7% (multiple polls). Latest poll is tied ...
PA(3): Kamala trails by 0.4% now. Biden had been trailing by 4.4% (multiple polls). 2nd latest poll has Kamala up by 4%, latest poll down by 2% ...
WA(1): Kamala leads by 14% now. Biden had also been leading by 14% in most recent poll.
WI(4): Kamala now trails by 0.2%, Biden had been trailing by 2.3% (multiple polls). Latest poll Kamala trails by 1% (3 prior polls were all tied)...
Overall Kamala has improved an average of about 4.1% ahead of Biden's prior position in each state and 3.6% in swing states (those with leads of under 5%).
Her polling has improved by 1.1% avg in all states since the last set of polls came out. So she is still going strong.
I think part of the spur is Vance. He is starting to remind me of Sarah Palin...
When Trump made his pick, I thought Ramaswamy would be the obvious choice. He honestly kicked ass talking the couple weeks prior. Then they immediately followed up the news with a Trump-Vance election sign and I instantly thought my god he passed on him because his name wouldn't look good on the signs. That is obviously not the only reason, but dang it if Trump don't think like that.
I'm revisiting that now as I watch JD Vance flop-sweat-bomb every time he is on stage. Ramaswamy would be killing it, creating this title fight atmosphere, but instead the GOP is imploding. Insane 180 by both parties in two short weeks. Would have never imagined.
I'm revisiting that now as I watch JD Vance flop-sweat-bomb every time he is on stage. Ramaswamy would be killing it, creating this title fight atmosphere, but instead the GOP is imploding. Insane 180 by both parties in two short weeks. Would have never imagined.
Couldn't have happened to a nicer bunch!
When Trump made his pick, I thought Ramaswamy would be the obvious choice. He honestly kicked ass talking the couple weeks prior. Then they immediately followed up the news with a Trump-Vance election sign and I instantly thought my god he passed on him because his name wouldn't look good on the signs. That is obviously not the only reason, but dang it if Trump don't think like that.
I feel that because most of our politicians (including Trump and Harris) dont talk much policy and rely more on vibes, we kind of just discount policy. However, Ramaswamy talks about policy a lot, and it is actually very radical. He basically wants to do to the entire federal govt what Musk did to Twitter, that is fire the majority of federal employees.
It seems like Trump just wants to lazily distract his base by saying racist stuff, and steal for his personal benefit. I never saw him as someone who would want to have anything to do with someone that has such radical ideas; just too much work.
And that isn't even going into any possible race reasons he wouldn't want Ramaswamy.
we can't cherry pick what Trump says to fit the narrative of our pre-established beliefs.
Trump says something the other day about people not needing to vote. - Yes that's proof he will be a dictator.
Trump says project 2025 should dissolve and has nothing to do with him or his campaign. - This time he's lying.
Trump has made reference to being a dictator multiple times. Someone has to be blinded by self-interest to not think it preoccupies his thoughts, which means he likely means it.
Denver Post: Trump says ‘a lot of people like it’ when he floats the idea of being a dictator
People don’t seem to mind the idea of former President Donald Trump acting as a dictator, he told Time magazine in an interview that drew swift rebuke from the Biden-Harris campaign.
Seem Harris gaining lot of momentum right now .
Hopefully she will wait until this momentum dies out before nominating her VP.
I guess once it dies , nominating a vp should keep the train rolling ?
When Trump made his pick, I thought Ramaswamy would be the obvious choice. He honestly kicked ass talking the couple weeks prior. Then they immediately followed up the news with a Trump-Vance election sign and I instantly thought my god he passed on him because his name wouldn't look good on the signs. That is obviously not the only reason, but dang it if Trump don't think like that.
I'm revisiting that now as I watch JD Vance flop-sweat-bom
vivek while I still think his ideas are dogshit when it comes to cutting agencies by 90% and banning kids from social media, two awful policies has done a fantastic job coming across presidential and charismatic to an extent compared to any republican that has run. Even though I would not vote for him right now, I respect him because hes the only politician that was running for pres that legit not only talked policy but actually got into the WEEDS of his things and went INTO his thought process behind his stances and policy. especially with the two things i stated above, he said he things about the FDA that ofc weve been hearing Europeans talk about wrt FDA. he has talked more policy in those repub debates than i have heard harris her entire career.
the way he has handled himself even leading up to JD was the choice, I don't get how they thought JD was the pick to bridge ohio and MI but we could be wrong
DNC gonna get an insane boost and I think they should be in the drivers seat after the convention.
im surpised nate silver is saying the boost is only limited nad will wear off, hes been saying its still leaning red and will be coming into election night but Id like to see what he is looking at
vivek while I still think his ideas are dogshit when it comes to cutting agencies by 90% and banning kids from social media, two awful policies has done a fantastic job coming across presidential and charismatic to an extent compared to any republican that has run. Even though I would not vote for him right now, I respect him because hes the only politician that was running for pres that legit not only talked policy but actually got into t
In the current climate of Reality Show Presidency Season III he was the perfect choice. A charismatic toadie straight out of central casting. The yang to Trump's yin. But I sincerely believe Trump can't have any shine around him. His narcissism demands all the shine all the time. Submissive toadies only. Vance is also more a plant than a pick, if we're being honest with ourselves. Trump didn't make that decision.
I don't like this because of the tone and actions of these campaigns when they are ahead or think they are going to win is not very strategic. Every campaign acts like the Hillary campaign every time it gets any momentum, being in its bubble, doing whatever it really wants to do. They want no progressives or progressive adjacent types. Plus not everyone was happy that Kamala was ushered in, Obama being one of them. He likes Mark Kelly which is why the market likes Kelly and I don't see why it would be wrong. Beshear is the smarter pick, but does the campaign think it has to strategize all that much? I think Dems will pick who the insiders want in their miniature, Grinch sized hearts. It will be a pick which is good for them more than what is more likely to get a win.
Remember Tim Kaine foisted on the ticket in the wake of the Bernie bomb? That's who the Democratic party is and they are not going to change.
AFP: 'Weird' Trump hates being laughed at. So Harris is laughing
"Weird." Democrats want this to be the word of 2024 -- their secret weapon to bring down Donald Trump.
"Trump is old and quite weird?" as a Kamala Harris campaign statement put it.
"Just plain weird," Harris said.
Trump has built a political career on mocking everyone from opponents to his own staffers.
But being the butt of the joke makes him furious.
"I hate when people laugh at me," he told a rally earlier this month.
That "weird" jibe is Harris's bid, in her come-from-behind campaign, to get the whole country laughing.
Where President Joe Biden used formal -- often grandiose -- speeches to frame Trump as an existential boogeyman, Harris's team is trying to shrink the Republican into something more like an unpleasant clown.
As long as they don’t get into “deplorable” territory I think this is solid strategy. Just keep provoking Trump to lash out at a woman. Works for him against a man but I think it’s going to be pretty bad vs a woman without the baked in negative image Hillary had.
only $499
Shapiro is 72% to be VP nominee.
Beshear 2nd at 12%
Kelly and Walz 7% each
The executive power line isn't very specific. It seems more like a left leaning talking point than an actual course of action.
Between cutting federal employees, enacting school choice, deregulation businesses, making abortion a state issue and not federal gov't issue and reducing gov't involvement in healthcare it sounds like the main goal of both agenda 47 and project 25 is to reduce the power of the federal gov't and therefore the president.
You posted this without much context. Did you see any other major takeaways?
I feel that because most of our politicians (including Trump and Harris) dont talk much policy and rely more on vibes, we kind of just discount policy. However, Ramaswamy talks about policy a lot, and it is actually very radical. He basically wants to do to the entire federal govt what Musk did to Twitter, that is fire the majority of federal employees.
I haven't heard Ramaswamy talk much, but I think coming up with a plan to fire 1/2 of the current federal employees over a 4 year term is a great way to start. Then hire back for jobs if they are actually needed.
I get that he is a random guy that not many voters know about and as long as it stays that way he is fine, but if you judge a governor by how his largest city andy is screwed. He allowed rioters to take over the city for a year+ and Louisville is still one of the bottom 3 US cities in term of economic/foot traffic recovery in downtown zones post-covid. It is like a ghost town compared to where it was 5 years ago and he deserves a huge percentage of the blame.
He also released a bunch of inmates in KY because he was more worried about them getting covid than the safety of the public and 48% of them were caught and arrested for committing another crime within 1 year.
Sickening. Kelly is the value pick in my estimation. The dems are always trying to appeal to the conservatives instead of their own base. The baldness actually works for them in that effort. Plus it makes up for, at least symbolically, Kamala's perception of not caring about the border. Kelly looks like a MAGA wacko and that can appeal to the OG identitarians, the conservatives. The fact that blending symbols doesn't usually have an additive effect in politics is a lesson the dems will never learn (and because of laziness and cowardice in the voting public they never have to).
Who knows what these insular nuts are going to do, but Beshear seems like south of 1% to me, like no way. I think the betting market isn't cynical enough.
Shapiro seems like such a can of worms and Kelly such an easy pick. It concerns me that announcement will be in Philly.
tihs is why i assume people are exhausted a bit sre his rhetoric is dumb af he doesn't have the votes but he didn't say "dont vote" idk how these headlines get drawn in between trump and harris and peopel filling in their words at times, mostly its been on trump who gets the short end of that
