$25----->25k Bankroll Challenge on Ignition

Yes they overcall flop, my MDA doesn't go that granular on exact combos but they over defend vs cbets (even more so when you realize they over defend preflop).

You should be barreling turn more since they overfold turn but you need to be careful on the 2BW textures vs betters regs since this spot is overbluffed.

Wouldn't we still want to bet the turn in that case?

If a reg thinks the turn is overbluffed, then aren't they going to call hands worse than AT?

You're probably one of like five people in the world who knows/remembers that, and I doubt regs will intuitive understand it or act much on it.

Fwiw I've been sub-profiling regs and the better ones are mostly just less exploitable. But iggy mid/high stakes is at least somewhat different in that regards, definitely against the bots

Fun strat, reminds me of the reverse bumhunting thread

I'd add

4. Fish tend to get stacked by a different reg and leave

So I think it's similar to reverse bumhunting in that you need everything to go perfectly and you lose a decent amount of EV when it doesn't work out

by DooDooPoker P

HJvsBTN3BET

4♠4♥3♦

88/99 high frequency X back's OTF!

Does appear counterintuitive, especially in respect of equity protection. Are we checking mid-pairs to induce bluffs on later streets? Or are we checking to avoid being x-raised, even though this isn't necessarily -EV for us? Maybe we are pot-controlling to avoid getting value-owned by TT-QQ (assuming HJ doesn't have 55-77 in their defending range)?

It would be interesting to see how often fish actually do leave via some type of software. I'm not sure it's as often as people think. A lot of fish will buy in for like 30bb or some non max number and then when they get stacked they will reload on a revenge tour. Fish are highly emotional.

Hard to know the exact reason but GTO is mostly using B75 and 88/99 are 0 EV calls OTF. The problem is no one is folding 88/99 on 443r OTF in this formation.

I could see some type of sick leveling going on where you gain value from worse Tx. My comment was just in general and not specific to ATs.

In depth poker theory is a little silly though, stuff like this doesn't actually matter wrt to win rate.

This is the blueprint to making real money at poker. There is a ceiling but it's a pretty high one (250k/year probably).

1. You play online to get repetitions in and understand basic poker theory.

2. Get yourself to a level where you will be better than 99% of the live poker population (A 50nl winning reg is probably a good benchmark).

3) Slowly transition to live games starting at 1/2 and slowly move your way up.

4) Start playing exclusively 5/10+ live games. And hopefully 10/20 and 10/25.

I'll highlight this person who did this to perfection (whether intentionally or unintentionally it doesn't really matter).

Kvnd.

He was a regular poster in the microstakes forum for a few years and was a solid 50nl reg, him and I had some private messages back and forth where we were both trying to get a grasp on MDA and population tendencies.

He transitioned to live poker, maybe about 2 years ago or possibly a little more.

His results.

This should be almost everyone's goal if they are trying to maximize making money at this game.

Okay back to peanut stakes.

UTGvsBB theory is always interesting.

KJss is 100% X back here. Even AJo mixes.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($26.06) [VPIP: 23.8% | PFR: 23.8% | AGG: 50% | Hands: 23]
SB ($30.35) [VPIP: 60% | PFR: 40% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 5]
BB ($30) [VPIP: 50% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 33.3% | Flop Agg: 0% | Turn Agg: 0% | River Agg: 100% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 100% | Hands: 2]
HERO ($64.69) [VPIP: 27.5% | PFR: 23.3% | AGG: 39.9% | Flop Agg: 44.4% | Turn Agg: 36.6% | River Agg: 40.3% | 3Bet: 10.1% | 4Bet: 12.2% | Hands: 69769]
HJ ($26.57) [VPIP: 18.8% | PFR: 15.7% | AGG: 20.9% | Hands: 428]
CO ($25) [VPIP: 21.4% | PFR: 21.4% | AGG: 25% | Hands: 14]

Dealt to Hero: J♠ K♠

HERO Raises To $0.50, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Calls $0.25

Hero SPR on Flop: [26.82 effective]
Flop ($1.10): K♥ T♠ Q♣
BB Checks, HERO Bets $0.55 (Rem. Stack: $63.64), BB Calls $0.55 (Rem. Stack: $28.95)

Turn ($2.20): K♥ T♠ Q♣ 7♠
BB Checks, HERO Bets $1.65 (Rem. Stack: $61.99), BB Calls $1.65 (Rem. Stack: $27.30)

River ($5.50): K♥ T♠ Q♣ 7♠ K♦
BB checks, HERO ?

Spot #2 that is hard.

Huge Donk Spot OTT for UTG. That means you don't bet your weaker 2 pair here ever. Even more so if we nodelock UTG to never donking.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($65.75) [VPIP: 33.3% | PFR: 33.3% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 3]
SB ($33.38) [VPIP: 22.2% | PFR: 18.5% | AGG: 40% | Hands: 27]
BB ($25) [VPIP: 14.3% | PFR: 14.3% | AGG: 100% | Hands: 7]
UTG ($63.46) [VPIP: 25% | PFR: 25% | AGG: 33.3% | Flop Agg: 0% | Turn Agg: 0% | River Agg: 100% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 5]
HJ ($2.56) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 1]
HERO ($36.63) [VPIP: 27.5% | PFR: 23.3% | AGG: 39.9% | Flop Agg: 44.4% | Turn Agg: 36.6% | River Agg: 40.4% | 3Bet: 10.1% | Fold to 3Bet: 58% | 4Bet: 12.2% | Hands: 69815]

Dealt to Hero: J♦ Q♦

UTG Raises To $0.55, HJ Folds, HERO Raises To $1.63, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Folds, UTG Calls $1.08

Hero SPR on Flop: [9.7 effective]
Flop ($3.61): Q♥ K♦ 6♣
UTG Checks, HERO Bets $1.10 (Rem. Stack: $33.90), UTG Calls $1.10 (Rem. Stack: $60.73)

Turn ($5.81): Q♥ K♦ 6♣ J♣
UTG Checks, HERO Checks

River ($5.81): Q♥ K♦ 6♣ J♣ 2♣
UTG Bets $0.50 (Rem. Stack: $60.23), HERO Raises To $5.60 (Rem. Stack: $28.30), UTG Folds

Theory OTT for UTG.

KJs/QJs 100% check OTT.

Imagine they'll have more KQ/KJ and sets @25nl than gtow too, given disparity in 4b

Another good exploit I haven't heard anyone talk about. Stop ranging monotone boards and play more passively/theory oriented.

Here is a a made up HH but it illustrates the exploit.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
HERO ($30) [VPIP: 27.5% | PFR: 23.3% | AGG: 39.9% | Flop Agg: 44.3% | Turn Agg: 36.6% | River Agg: 40.4% | 3Bet: 10.1% | 4Bet: 12.2% | Hands: 69867]
SB ($31.74) [VPIP: 30.3% | PFR: 18.2% | AGG: 38.5% | Hands: 33]
BB ($27.86) [VPIP: 16.7% | PFR: 8.3% | AGG: 25% | Flop Agg: 50% | Turn Agg: 0% | River Agg: 0% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 14.3% | Hands: 12]
UTG ($32.03) [VPIP: 18.5% | PFR: 14.8% | AGG: 50% | Hands: 57]
HJ ($42.86) [VPIP: 30% | PFR: 23.3% | AGG: 33.3% | Hands: 31]
CO ($66.47) [VPIP: 22.6% | PFR: 16.8% | AGG: 31.6% | Hands: 309]

Dealt to Hero: T♦ A♦

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, HERO Raises To $0.50, SB Folds, BB Calls $0.25

Hero SPR on Flop: [24.87 effective]
Flop ($1.10): Q♠ 4♠ K♠
BB Checks, HERO Checks

Turn ($1.10): Q♠ 4♠ K♠ T♥
BB Bets $0.70, HERO calls $0.70.

River ($2.50): Q♠ 4♠ K♠ T♥ 3♠
BB Bets $1.85, HERO Raises to $7

I do think showdown bias effects the discrepancy in folding frequencies here but it's so far over MDF that it will still print plus no one bluffs monotone boards. They are underbluffed (which is interesting). So you get an underbluffed spot that is over folding.

MDA for this spot ---->aggregate plus filters.

69% aggregate folding frequency (already an overfold).

Now let's compare this to filtered:

I know it's a smaller sample size so I checked every other position and also B30-BF and they are all over the aggregate data and way over the MDF threshold.

I made up the HH and had to fix it but it works on either run out.

I'm definitely a lazy range bettor on these double bw mono flops, if population is underbluffing monoboards (xr flop/turn in particular) then small flop cbets should perform well since we can bxb or bbb aggressively right? Or do people play worse against the xx flop line, I tend to like putting more air in turn barrels so that if board runs out 4flush we can just bluff everything and expect high fold equity to the triple barrel

Most everything is mixed so a line is only going to be as good as the player who has studied it. It's not possible to say which line is better, you should take lines that you are comfortable with and lines that the population are not.

So in your example, if you like putting air in turn barrels then you need to see if there are overfolds to a turn barrel on monotone boards (there are) and also look at xc-xc-xf lines on 4 to flush turns/rivers on monotone boards.

The best line to take will change against each individual so we can't know the best line, the best we can do is understand the ranges and tendencies for the line we took.

right that makes sense, the data I've seen does indeed show a large overfold on 4flush rivers to bbb lines, wasn't sure about mono boards on turn thanks for the confirmation

Trying some new lines out here since I've been playing deeper. Let me know what you guys think about this one, maybe bigger turn xr in retrospect but I still want to be able to OB river so not too big.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($47.39) [VPIP: 20% | PFR: 20% | AGG: 42.9% | Flop Agg: 66.7% | Turn Agg: 50% | River Agg: 0% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 11]
SB ($27.01) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 4]
HERO ($64.31) [VPIP: 27.5% | PFR: 23.3% | AGG: 39.8% | Flop Agg: 44.3% | Turn Agg: 36.6% | River Agg: 40.4% | 3Bet: 10.1% | 4Bet: 12.1% | Cold Call: 9.3% | Hands: 70137]
UTG ($45.68) [VPIP: 33.3% | PFR: 33.3% | AGG: 100% | Hands: 3]
HJ ($26.42) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 3]
CO ($32.13) [VPIP: 22.1% | PFR: 18.6% | AGG: 59.1% | Hands: 90]

Dealt to Hero: A♣ T♠

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Raises To $0.60, SB Folds, HERO Calls $0.35

Hero SPR on Flop: [35.99 effective]
Flop ($1.30): J♣ Q♥ 9♥
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $0.62 (Rem. Stack: $46.17), HERO Calls $0.62 (Rem. Stack: $63.09)

Turn ($2.54): J♣ Q♥ 9♥ 3♦
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $4.74 (Rem. Stack: $41.43), HERO Raises To $9.48 (Rem. Stack: $53.61), BTN Calls $4.74 (Rem. Stack: $36.69)

River ($21.50): J♣ Q♥ 9♥ 3♦ 5♣
HERO Bets $53.61 (allin)

I'm guessing turn XR is quite bad especially at 25nl

As played I'd block river

Probably should explain lol. I think weak regs you just attack the check back range here, and you'll probably run into inelasticity OTR

And thinking more it doesn't seem like a great bluff spot so maybe just check river and hope they're scared to bluff too and you can chop/win

This is 25nl blitz on ACR fwiw.

Blocking river is interesting and not something I thought of in game. Betting small to target FD is pretty neat.

I've done some MDA studying on B30-OB turn and it looks like they underfold turn but I think the river is overfolded by a bit vs the OBs and FD missed data point (I think we have talked about this spot before actually but the turn wasn't an OB it was B70).

I think I might like checking river better after thinking about it but a counter point is us being deeper is better for my bluff. If he has a hand that I unblock like 2 pair or something then he is unblocking straights and I'll play T8/KT like this pretty often. I actually think weak tight blitz regs would fold here more than a higher stakes player.

It's also possible I have the best hand OTR and could block bet/check like you said. Blocking might be worse than checking since it will induce too often given the SPR is 1ish.

2 pair and all sets are the same hand here but I think population would rather call QQ than Q9s even though it doesn't make sense. That definitely makes my jam worse. The FD missing makes it better and the deeper stacks make it better vs 2 pair (if I'm thinking like villain).

All in all I think you are right and this is my hierarchy - let me know what you think.

Check>Jam>Bet small.

Is this measuring relative to Pio? You'll have a lot of +EV bluffs in this line, but it's runout dependent in theory

I was just measuring it relative to MDF.

Do you agree sets are more likely to call river over 2 pair even though they are same hand? I think even at higher stakes this will be true.

If you go through a bunch of boards in GTOWizard for XC-XR-B, you'll see a lot of very +EV bluffs, very -EV bluffs, and merges

For my Pio hands alpha is 41.7% for SRP IP PFR B-BC-F and it's folding 47.6%