2024 ELECTION THREAD
The next presidential race will be here soon! Please see current Bovada odds. Thoughts?
at least the radical left tries to concoct reasons about why the Dems aren't crushing (like purportedly, for them being pro Israel is what costs votes). they are wrong but they are trying to find what to change at least.
I think most readers of this forum know that a Kelly or a Shapiro nominee, who had won primaries fair and square with the normal process, who don't talk lgbtq123abc+ bullshit nor are pro open borders or pro medicaid for illegals or against fracking would be sailing at 98% in the models, but admitting the right Might Be Right about some policy issues and excesses of portions of the democratic party is worse than risking losing elections that you should always win on paper I guess
at least the radical left tries to concoct reasons about why the Dems aren't crushing (like purportedly, for them being pro Israel is what costs votes). they are wrong but they are trying to find what to change at least.
I think most readers of this forum know that a Kelly or a Shapiro nominee, who had won primaries fair and square with the normal process, who don't talk lgbtq123abc+ bullshit nor are pro open borders or pro medicaid for ille
It's nice to see you use "radical left" to refer to actual leftists for once, rather than anyone who doesn't think Luciomtopia is all meadows and butterflies and other mediocre metaphors.
Good one from reddit today
Seem the poster who got ban ( don’t remember is name) , predicting easy win for trump just 2 weeks ago was as right has the red wave promises in 2022…
Again another fail but they always forgot trump keep losing for a long time now.
But it’s trump so , criminal , sex offfender , loser who cares right …
There will be no motivation problems this time. And the maga cult has never been big, just loud.
There definitely could be a motivation problem from the far Left, who see Biden as responsible for what they consider a Palestinian genocide. Even though they can’t (or don’t want to) discern between this and what would be an accelerated eviscerating of Palestinians if Trump regains power, there is a sentiment among them (which isn’t new) of both parties suck, voting for the lesser evil is still voting for evil, etc.
To what extent they connect Harris to this issue, and to what extent it has on depressing the voter turnout of this voting bloc will only be known after the fact. It certainly smacks of the same depressed turnout by this group in 2016 when they felt like HRC and the DNC conspired to torpedo Bernie Sanders’ campaign.
But I think your other point also doesn’t stand, about R turnout.
I predicted a Dem win in 2020 but incorrectly guessed that it would be because Trump would have lost support between 2016 and 2020, but somehow he inexplicably improved on his 2016 numbers by 10 million people.
I mean…ya
Not all from the maga cult. And a very large number of them turned against him after Jan 6th. It was only the culties that dug in their heels. He's losing independents hand over fist these days. He had gained a lot of those because of lies about the economy.
I agree not all are MAGA cult. I'm guessing like half would prefer Mitt Romney. But if you stil pull the lever for Trump after all that he says how unqualified he is I don't really cut much slack. I disagree he's losing people. His favorability polling is at ll time highs....maybe it will drop but after Jan 6th it's hard to think f anything he could do to get it to a rational number.
And he lost to milk toast Joe Biden (which is a testament to how easy he was to beat if you just motivate people to get out and vote).
The flip side of that was Biden was basically generic Dem and Trump did't get blown out.
Big fan of the "weird" movement
Make no mistake. He's clearly losing now and has no current hope of stopping things from getting much worse. The republicans' best hope is to drop out, but that will go much worse for them than it did for the democrats. Trump is the only glue pretending to hold that splintered party together at this point.
Trump is actually winning right now against Harris though she has been gaining ground since Biden has stepped down.
There have been two types of polls in the states where polls have been taken: Heads Up polls and polls with all current state candidates. Harris is trailing from an electoral college standpoint in both. We will assume Kamala will win NJ (which Biden trailed Trump by 1 point), NM and VA all of which have no polls since 7/21. In the Heads Up polls Trump is ahead 280 to 256. In the multi candidate polls Trump is ahead by 296 to 241.
Here are the current totals as of 7/31/24 polls taken from 7/21 onward.
Format is [
AZ(4|3): Kamala trails 2.8% HU and 2.3% MC with 6.7% 3rd and 3.7% Un, Biden was trailing by 5.5% prior standing in AZ (multiple polls).
CA(0|1): Kamala up by 24% MC, Biden was up by 20% in CA (multiple polls)
FL(1|1): Kamala trails by 7% HU and 8% MC with 6% 3rd and 8% Un, Biden trailed by 8.8% (multiple polls)
GA(5|4): Kamala trails by 1.2% HU and 2.5% MC with 5.8% 3rd and 4.8% Un, Biden trailed by 5.9% (multiple polls).
ME(1|1): Kamala leads by 9% HU and 8% MC after Biden had been trailing by 1% in the latest poll
MI(5|5): Kamala now leads by 1.2% HU and 1.6% MC with 8.6% 3rd and 4.6% Un, Biden had been trailing by 2.4% (multiple polls).
MN(2|2):Kamala leads by 8.5% HU and 4.5% MC with 8% 3rd and 5.5% Un, Biden had been tied (multiple polls).
NC(1|2): Kamala trails by 2% now both HU and MC with 6.5% 3rd and 4.5% Un, Biden had been trailing by 6.9% (multiple polls).
NH(2|3): Kamala still leads by 5.5% HU and 6.3% MC now. Biden had been trailing by 1% in the latest poll.
NV(2|2): Kamala is ahead by 0.5% HU and trails by 1% MC with 8.5% 3rd and 4.5% Un. Biden had been trailing by 5.7% (multiple polls).
OH(1|1): Kamala trails by 10% HU and 9% MC. Biden had been trailing by 9.3% (multiple polls)
OR(1|1): Kamala leads by 5% in HU and MC with 4% 3rd and 11% Un. Biden was up by 11% in the latest poll (with 19% for 3rd party and 12% undecided).
PA(7|6): Kamala trails by 0.7% HU and 0.4% MC with 9.5% 3rd and 1.5% Un. Biden had been trailing by 4.4% (multiple polls).
WA(0|1): Kamala leads by 14% MC. Biden had also been leading by 14% in most recent poll.
WI(4|4): Kamala leads by 1.3% HU and trails by 0.2% MC with 6.8% 3rd and 3.5% Un, Biden had been trailing by 2.3% (multiple polls).
Looking at the Multi Candidate polls only, Kamala can win by holding MI and taking PA (19 electoral votes) and WI (10 electoral votes) which are extremely close right now. GA and NC both have 16 electoral votes so either can figure in as an alternative to PA if Kamala can also win NV for the additional 6 electoral votes. Winning just PA and NV won't get it done.
The Heads Up polls show Kamala has gained 4.7% on average in swing states since 7/21 while the Multi Candidate polls show Harris has gained 3.8%. The good news about that is that as undecided voters decide to vote it looks like it might favor Kamala whereas in the past two elections the undecided voters swung to Trump. Especially if there is a decline in 3rd party votes as we move forward.
Harris has already been on the highest vote total ticket of all time. If she wins the general she will do so by getting the 2nd or 3rd most votes ever for a presidential candidate. It’s not a Ford situation where a guy ended up being president even though most Nixon voters in 76 probably didn’t know who he was.
Trump will end this election with the most general election votes of all-time.
He might even already have the record.
If my faulty venice ai is right, Trump has 122m (2016 + 2020, Biden has 98m (2008 + 2012 + 2020). Barack has bronze with 93m.
Trump's record will be pretty untouchable after this run. Mainly because most people aren't crazy to run again after losing and
Spoiler
there will be no more voting
If my faulty venice ai is right, Trump has 122m (2016 + 2020, Biden has 98m (2008 + 2012 + 2020). Barack has bronze with 93m.
Trump's record will be pretty untouchable after this run. Mainly because most people aren't crazy to run again after losing and
Spoiler
there will be no more voting
Seems pretty wrong.
Biden had 81mm+ votes in 2020. If you include 2008 and 2012 hes over 200 million
Doesn't seem like a huge achievement. Since population grows over time, every election is odds on to set a record turnout and therefore record numbers of votes for each candidate (assuming the popular vote is split roughly 50/50), no?
Doesn't seem like a huge achievement. Since population grows over time, every election is odds on to set a record turnout and therefore record numbers of votes for each candidate (assuming the popular vote is split roughly 50/50), no?
Ya. The key to holding the record is ensuring there are no more elections after you.
one way to gauge how bad Harris is as a candidate (compared to a tough centrist candidate for the Dems, in red leaning areas) is to check the differential in polls between her and Dem Senate candidates.
in Ohio the latest polls has trump at +9, Brown at +4.
https://www.politico.com/live-updates/20...
while previously we might have supposed it was about Biden cognitive decline and debate disaster, we know have further information about the fact that it's indeed (unsurprisingly) about too-leftist candidates being hated by independents , never Trumpers and so on.
the Dem brand isn't toxic, leftism is, in purple areas.
Same as the gop brand isn't toxic, some republican deranged candidates are (trump isn't anymore), in other purple areas.
gop threw away 2 seats in the Senate in 2022 by having insane, deranged people running in close races. the Dems might be throwing away (or at a minimum, risking for more than they should) the presidency doing the same kind of mistake
Doesn't seem like a huge achievement. Since population grows over time, every election is odds on to set a record turnout and therefore record numbers of votes for each candidate (assuming the popular vote is split roughly 50/50), no?
The main thing is being on multiple tickets. Nixon has more than Obama because he was VP or POTUS nominee 5 times.
Never mind what I changed. The electoral totals were correct... Hopefully Kamala will continue to improve
Legit hilarious that the democratic party finally realized that Trump just hates to be laughed at. That's it. Full stop.
Will be interesting to see if he debates. He almost has to, no?
