$25----->25k Bankroll Challenge on Ignition

Goat value line. The 8 screwed me haha

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($31.15) [VPIP: 15.4% | PFR: 10.3% | AGG: 30% | Flop Agg: 25% | Turn Agg: 33.3% | River Agg: 33.3% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 39]
HERO ($41.01) [VPIP: 27.6% | PFR: 23.3% | AGG: 39.7% | Flop Agg: 44.1% | Turn Agg: 36.4% | River Agg: 40.5% | 3Bet: 10.2% | Fold to 3Bet: 57.9% | 4Bet: 12.2% | Hands: 71456]
BB ($25.92) [VPIP: 17.3% | PFR: 13.9% | AGG: 30.4% | Hands: 214]
UTG ($40.10) [VPIP: 21.3% | PFR: 18.6% | AGG: 39.1% | Hands: 1274]
HJ ($56.77) [VPIP: 33.3% | PFR: 29.2% | AGG: 16.7% | Hands: 24]
CO ($24.68) [VPIP: 28.6% | PFR: 7.1% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 14]

Dealt to Hero: 7♦ A♦

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Raises To $0.75, HERO Raises To $3.26, BB Folds, BTN Calls $2.51

Hero SPR on Flop: [4.12 effective]
Flop ($6.77): A♥ 3♠ Q♦
HERO Bets $0.65 (Rem. Stack: $37.10), BTN Calls $0.65 (Rem. Stack: $27.24)

Turn ($8.07): A♥ 3♠ Q♦ 8♥
HERO Checks, BTN Checks

River ($8.07): A♥ 3♠ Q♦ 8♥ A♣
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $4.03 (Rem. Stack: $23.21), HERO Raises To $37.10 (allin), BTN Calls $23.21 (allin)

Overbluffed turn spot

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($32.34) [VPIP: 21.4% | PFR: 7.1% | AGG: 12.5% | Hands: 14]
SB ($47.01) [VPIP: 20.8% | PFR: 17.8% | AGG: 57.1% | Hands: 101]
BB ($24.88) [VPIP: 29.7% | PFR: 21.6% | AGG: 44.4% | Hands: 37]
UTG ($29.01) [VPIP: 35.8% | PFR: 30.9% | AGG: 34.6% | Flop Agg: 41.7% | Turn Agg: 33.3% | River Agg: 20% | 3Bet: 3.8% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 82]
HERO ($34.47) [VPIP: 27.6% | PFR: 23.3% | AGG: 39.7% | Flop Agg: 44.1% | Turn Agg: 36.4% | River Agg: 40.5% | 3Bet: 10.2% | Fold to 3Bet: 57.9% | 4Bet: 12.2% | Hands: 71456]
CO ($42.89) [VPIP: 34.5% | PFR: 32.2% | AGG: 50% | Hands: 92]

Dealt to Hero: 9♣ T♣

UTG Raises To $0.57, HERO Raises To $1.68, CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Folds, UTG Calls $1.11

Hero SPR on Flop: [7.37 effective]
Flop ($3.71): 8♦ 9♦ 6♣
UTG Checks, HERO Checks

Turn ($3.71): 8♦ 9♦ 6♣ K♦
UTG Checks, HERO Bets $1.22 (Rem. Stack: $31.57), UTG Raises To $5.21 (Rem. Stack: $22.12), HERO Calls $3.99 (Rem. Stack: $27.58)

River ($14.13): 8♦ 9♦ 6♣ K♦ 3♠
UTG Checks, HERO Checks

What conditions do you use this bet small/x/XR line in. Would you do it in a SRP? In this hand if the river was a blank would you do it?

It's nuanced, so basically these are the major factors I'm considering.

1) Position of my opponent, if he is UTG for example I am not jamming because he has too many strong Ax

2) Run out. The more dangerous the run out the less inclined I'll be to jam.

3) The flop texture, I'll deviate from solver solutions based on how population constructs their range.

Let's take two flops:

AKx

ATx

Let's say you go very small OTF and turn goes x/x. You are OTR with A7s. I'm more likely to jam A7s on the first board than the second board. That's because strong Kx will bet to get value from my TT-QQ, but Tx won't bet for fear of losing to JJ-KK.

4) My opponent's sizing, if my opponent is betting B75 or less in C-X-B then I will start going thinner for value. The smaller the size the thinner I go.

5) Minor point but if my opponent understands MDA, you will need specific reads for this deviation. This is an overbluffed line in general so the better my opponent the more likely I will be to use it.

I'm assuming you are mostly talking about BvB wrt to SRP? It doesn't work as well there because players overfold on Ace high boards.

Tough spot but we have to call. C-B-B is underbluffed on Ace high boards from regs, but it is overbluffed from fish.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($39.76) [VPIP: 22.1% | PFR: 12.9% | AGG: 19.6% | Hands: 169]
SB ($30.10) [VPIP: 15.8% | PFR: 13.2% | AGG: 33.3% | Hands: 40]
HERO ($41.74) [VPIP: 27.6% | PFR: 23.3% | AGG: 39.7% | Flop Agg: 44.1% | Turn Agg: 36.4% | River Agg: 40.5% | 3Bet: 10.2% | Fold to 3Bet: 57.8% | 4Bet: 12.2% | Hands: 71583]
UTG ($26.60) [VPIP: 33.3% | PFR: 30% | AGG: 71.4% | Hands: 30]
HJ ($28.53) [VPIP: 25% | PFR: 12.5% | AGG: 0% | Flop Agg: 0% | Turn Agg: 0% | River Agg: 0% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 8]
CO ($21.65) [VPIP: 75% | PFR: 25% | AGG: 57.1% | Flop Agg: 33.3% | Turn Agg: 100% | River Agg: 50% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 66.7% | Hands: 4]

Dealt to Hero: K♥ K♠

UTG Folds, HJ Raises To $0.85, CO Calls $0.85, BTN Folds, SB Folds, HERO Raises To $3.50, HJ Calls $2.65, CO Calls $2.65

Hero SPR on Flop: [1.71 effective]
Flop ($10.60): 2♣ T♥ A♦
HERO Bets $1.05 (Rem. Stack: $37.19), HJ Folds, CO Calls $1.05 (Rem. Stack: $17.10)

Turn ($12.70): 2♣ T♥ A♦ 6♥
HERO Checks, CO Bets $6.35 (Rem. Stack: $10.75), HERO Calls $6.35 (Rem. Stack: $30.84)

River ($25.40): 2♣ T♥ A♦ 6♥ 9♦
HERO Checks, CO Bets $10.75 (allin), HERO Calls $10.75 (Rem. Stack: $20.09)

Terrible call here by me. 0EV in theory but underbluffed and this pool is super tight so I need to just fold river.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($25) [VPIP: 20.5% | PFR: 15.7% | AGG: 32.1% | Hands: 85]
SB ($30.72) [VPIP: 30.4% | PFR: 13% | AGG: 35.7% | Hands: 23]
HERO ($58.36) [VPIP: 27.6% | PFR: 23.3% | AGG: 39.7% | Flop Agg: 44.1% | Turn Agg: 36.4% | River Agg: 40.5% | 3Bet: 10.2% | Fold to 3Bet: 57.8% | 4Bet: 12.2% | Hands: 71583]
UTG ($36.18) [VPIP: 18.9% | PFR: 18.9% | AGG: 29.4% | Flop Agg: 33.3% | Turn Agg: 33.3% | River Agg: 20% | 3Bet: 8.7% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 77]
HJ ($55.35) [VPIP: 21.6% | PFR: 15.6% | AGG: 48.3% | Hands: 201]
CO ($31.28) [VPIP: 14.9% | PFR: 9% | AGG: 46.2% | Hands: 69]

Dealt to Hero: K♥ A♥

UTG Raises To $0.62, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Folds, HERO Raises To $3.36, UTG Calls $2.74

Hero SPR on Flop: [4.81 effective]
Flop ($6.82): 9♦ K♦ 6♠
HERO Bets $3.41 (Rem. Stack: $51.59), UTG Calls $3.41 (Rem. Stack: $29.41)

Turn ($13.64): 9♦ K♦ 6♠ 3♦
HERO Checks, UTG Bets $6.82 (Rem. Stack: $22.59), HERO Calls $6.82 (Rem. Stack: $44.77)

River ($27.28): 9♦ K♦ 6♠ 3♦ 8♠
HERO Checks, UTG Bets $22.59 (allin), HERO Calls $22.59 (Rem. Stack: $22.18)

I think in the AK hand we can just continue the turn for 1/3. Think people will basically never bluff raise ott, and we still get a lot of value from TT-QQ w/ diamond that just checks turn.

Bet sizing is probably the single hardest part about poker.

In this spot we don't just bet 1/4 and call it a day. We need to mostly jam because of the board texture, another interesting note is that BB has a high frequency donk lead.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
HERO ($48.11) [VPIP: 27.6% | PFR: 23.3% | AGG: 39.7% | Flop Agg: 44% | 3Bet: 10.2% | 4Bet: 12.2% | Fold to 4Bet: 52.6% | Hands: 71812]
SB ($25.72) [VPIP: 20.4% | PFR: 17.3% | AGG: 22.4% | Hands: 265]
BB ($30.40) [VPIP: 25% | PFR: 22.5% | AGG: 28.8% | Flop Agg: 25.9% | 3Bet: 9.8% | Fold to 3Bet: 40% | 4Bet: 26.7% | Hands: 245]
UTG ($42.10) [VPIP: 13.1% | PFR: 10.7% | AGG: 22.2% | Hands: 84]
HJ ($25.35) [VPIP: 14.1% | PFR: 9.6% | AGG: 36% | Hands: 139]
CO ($30.35) [VPIP: 66.7% | PFR: 66.7% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 3]

Dealt to Hero: A♠ A♣

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, HERO Raises To $0.60, SB Folds, BB Raises To $2.40, HERO Raises To $5.70, BB Calls $3.30

Hero SPR on Flop: [2.15 effective]
Flop ($11.50): 8♣ Q♦ T♦
BB Checks, HERO Bets $42.41 (allin), BB Folds

I'd like it better in a looser formation since UTG doesn't have many one diamond hands. Population is over 4betting QQ preflop.

Another point which actually contradicts my first point is you don't get value from TT-QQ with a diamond if you bet 1/3. They have 11 outs so they are getting direct odds.

I think the argument to bet turn has nothing to do with getting thin value but on how population will play river nodes in C-C-B. It's very underbluffed so we can play face up OTR.

Most conventional poker wisdom is incorrect.

Another spot where fish overbluff with OB sizing.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($100.03) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 1]
HERO ($33.35) [VPIP: 27.6% | PFR: 23.3% | AGG: 39.7% | Flop Agg: 43.9% | Turn Agg: 36.3% | River Agg: 40.8% | 3Bet: 10.2% | 4Bet: 12.1% | Hands: 72430]
BB ($54) [VPIP: 55.6% | PFR: 22.2% | AGG: 54.5% | Flop Agg: 60% | Turn Agg: 33.3% | River Agg: 66.7% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 75% | Hands: 9]
UTG ($31.87) [VPIP: 23.1% | PFR: 18.3% | AGG: 46.4% | Hands: 377]
HJ ($33.09) [VPIP: 21.1% | PFR: 13.2% | AGG: 16.7% | Hands: 253]
CO ($32.65) [VPIP: 21.1% | PFR: 15.4% | AGG: 29% | Hands: 418]

Dealt to Hero: Q♦ 9♦

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Folds, HERO Raises To $0.75, BB Calls $0.50

Hero SPR on Flop: [21.73 effective]
Flop ($1.50): Q♥ K♣ 7♥
HERO Checks, BB Bets $0.75 (Rem. Stack: $52.50), HERO Calls $0.75 (Rem. Stack: $31.85)

Turn ($3): Q♥ K♣ 7♥ 3♦
HERO Checks, BB Bets $1.50 (Rem. Stack: $51), HERO Calls $1.50 (Rem. Stack: $30.35)

River ($6): Q♥ K♣ 7♥ 3♦ K♠
HERO Checks, BB Bets $6.25 (Rem. Stack: $44.75), HERO Calls $6.25 (Rem. Stack: $24.10)

It's all good to consider whether to bet or check turn, but of course we are still getting value from QQ-TT with a diamond lol. Villain being priced in against our bet doesn't mean we aren't getting value 😊

We are getting value and they are priced in, lol

tbh I almost never see people 4b QQ/JJ in this formation. Even KK I see mixed in as a call quite often.

This is a pretty infrequent spot though so could definitely be sample size.

I should of said IP isn't making a mistake by calling a 1/3 sized bet OTT.

I think what I was trying to get at was we aren't betting 1/3 to target those hands, the point of betting small is to target weaker Kx not TT-QQ with a diamond since it's EV+ for IP to call.

+EV relative to folding to a bet, but -EV relative to checking back

Yeah we would prefer a check from OOP if we have QQ-TT.

After thinking about it some more I do think wereallgonnamakeit is right and betting smaller OTT is better against this population, we get an easy river decision.

One thing I learned that really surprised me was you can actually jam flop/turn when you have <50% equity to the pot because of pot odds.

So for instance if we are OTF with like 40% equity in a 4bp. We still jam flop because of how much money is already in the pot.

One of these training sites has a calculator that show's this, I forget which site it was.

Gross

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($25.66) [VPIP: 19.4% | PFR: 16.4% | AGG: 33.3% | Hands: 314]
HERO ($32.61) [VPIP: 27.6% | PFR: 23.3% | AGG: 39.7% | Flop Agg: 43.9% | Turn Agg: 36.3% | River Agg: 40.8% | 3Bet: 10.2% | Fold to 3Bet: 57.9% | 4Bet: 12.1% | Hands: 72466]
BB ($52.62) [VPIP: 15.9% | PFR: 4.5% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 44]
UTG ($52.39) [VPIP: 22.8% | PFR: 18% | AGG: 46.4% | Hands: 384]
HJ ($33.23) [VPIP: 33.3% | PFR: 33.3% | AGG: 100% | Flop Agg: 100% | Turn Agg: 100% | River Agg: 100% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 3]
CO ($54.52) [VPIP: 16.3% | PFR: 14.3% | AGG: 30% | Hands: 99]

Dealt to Hero: A♣ A♠

UTG Folds, HJ Raises To $0.50, CO Folds, BTN Folds, HERO Raises To $2.55, BB Folds, HJ Calls $2.05

Hero SPR on Flop: [5.62 effective]
Flop ($5.35): J♦ 2♥ A♦
HERO Bets $0.55 (Rem. Stack: $29.51), HJ Raises To $3.77 (Rem. Stack: $26.91), HERO Calls $3.22 (Rem. Stack: $26.29)

Turn ($12.89): J♦ 2♥ A♦ 4♥
HERO Checks, HJ Bets $9.66 (Rem. Stack: $17.25), HERO Calls $9.66 (Rem. Stack: $16.63)

River ($32.21): J♦ 2♥ A♦ 4♥ 8♥
HERO Checks, HJ Bets $17.25 (allin), HERO Calls $16.63 (allin)

For as much progress as poker has made in the past 20-25 years, one thing that has not progressed at all is win rate metrics. We are still using EV BB and BB/100 from the early 2000's.

Do you guys think EVBB/100 is more accurate than regular BB/100 or just flawed in a different way?

Non poker related but I found this interesting.

Casual 360 million dollar clerical error in the shorting of DJT Trump stock by Blackrock. Also the dead gunman was in a Blackrock commercial.

As poker players we understand Bayesian Inference, the odds of that being a coincidence are slim to none.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/worl...

Okay back to your regularly scheduled programming.

that article was written by someone with a room temperature iq

it starts by pointing out what shorting a stock is and says that's what the firm did, but then later says it instead purchased put options - both want stock price to go down, but are very different things - many options are also purchased as a way to hedge against losses as well

the "linkage" between blackrock and APW is that APW own shares of blackrock

As poker players, we understand there are fish at the tables. Some have chips and cards at the poker table, others write for Times of India, others seek out whatever nonsense that fits their world view.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmati...

EVbb/100 removes one small part of the variance equation. Not flawed in a different way really, the other flaws are the same.

None of what you said has any bearing on what I just said. I don't care if the person writing the article is stupid I just care about the facts.

Shorting a stock and then blaming it on a clerical error could MAYBE be considered coincidental. And then right before the assassination attempt could be a second coincidence.

But then this happens. Third coincidence? I'd lay -100000 no chance.

https://youtu.be/SoJ7HHkvtBE?si=cUKvRvP5...

Yeah I've heard this argument a bunch of times but it's not true imo.

Here's a HH to refute it.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($25.66) [VPIP: 20.4% | PFR: 17.3% | AGG: 32.7% | Hands: 335]
HERO ($32.61) [VPIP: 27.6% | PFR: 23.3% | AGG: 39.6% | Flop Agg: 43.9% | Turn Agg: 36.2% | River Agg: 40.8% | 3Bet: 10.2% | Fold to 3Bet: 57.9% | 4Bet: 12.1% | Hands: 72585]
BB ($52.62) [VPIP: 14.9% | PFR: 4.3% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 47]
UTG ($52.39) [VPIP: 22.6% | PFR: 17.9% | AGG: 46.4% | Hands: 392]
HJ ($33.23) [VPIP: 33.3% | PFR: 33.3% | AGG: 100% | Flop Agg: 100% | Turn Agg: 100% | River Agg: 100% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 3]
CO ($54.52) [VPIP: 16.8% | PFR: 15.1% | AGG: 26.9% | Hands: 121]

Dealt to Hero: A♣ A♠

UTG Folds, HJ Raises To $0.50, CO Folds, BTN Folds, HERO Raises To $2.55, BB Folds, HJ Calls $2.05

Hero SPR on Flop: [5.62 effective]
Flop ($5.35): J♦ 2♥ A♦
HERO Bets $0.55 (Rem. Stack: $29.51), HJ Raises To $3.77 (Rem. Stack: $26.91), HERO Calls $3.22 (Rem. Stack: $26.29)

Turn ($12.89): J♦ 2♥ A♦ 4♥
HERO Checks, HJ Bets $9.66 (Rem. Stack: $17.25), HERO Calls $9.66 (Rem. Stack: $16.63)

River ($32.21): J♦ 2♥ A♦ 4♥ 8♥
HERO Checks, HJ Bets $17.25 (allin), HERO Calls $16.63 (allin)

sick derail

Imo you should always use EVbb for estimating win rate, and bb/100 for variance calculations

pre-rake EVbb/100 vs regs would be interesting since the average is 0

EV loss vs regs (so compared to GTO) is a good measure of pool skill but some people make a lot of good but "incorrect" plays

I'm confused isn't your EVbb and bb won the same here

you're politarding on about stuff you don't understand - nor does the author you use as a source understand either for that matter

there's several blatant inaccuracies (that could have been fact checked in 30 seconds) written in that article - so we don't even know if the basis of it that they wanted 12 put options and it went through as 1200 is real or not because the author is clearly just winging it - or even worse, intentionally writing disinformation knowing it gets clicks from fish - and again, even if that is what happened, you are in absolutely no position to determine the likelihood of those errors - this is again, without even addressing that the firm in question has zero ties to blackrock nor the absurd notion that blackrock seeks out extras in tv commercials for assassination missions

there's a reason why i shared the wiki link for confirmation bias, you want it to be true so you're hunting for any evidence and happily accept anything that is clearly incorrect - beginning to see more clearly now how you're capable of caging yourself into low stakes