2024 ELECTION THREAD
The next presidential race will be here soon! Please see current Bovada odds. Thoughts?
It’s sad to see Walz depart from MN, but he is as good as advertised. Put aside the speech and he is just a salt of the earth, honorable, stand up guy. Teacher, national guard, congressperson with an impeccable record and an amazing governor. We were trying to hide him away here but you all found him, so sad for us but great for the country
Occurs to me I should temper any enthusiasm when I remind myself she's running against a guy with 30-something felony convictions, who was found liable of sexual assault in civil court, who effectively brought the end of Roe v Wade in a country where the majority are pro-choice. Then he's a draft dodger, Putin apologist, who attempted to overthrow election results. Half the people in his inner circle now publicly paint him as a POS, include his former VP. Paying hush money to porn stars, that little Jan 6 incident and about 100 other things I don't have time to list.
So good job Harris but this is what you're neck and neck with and so I'm probably giving too much credit
nate silver officially has polling up for Harris now. his polling was the only one that had trump still as a fav up until 2 days ago. trump is in a uphill battle between now and November now
Well at least it's a well oiled machine ready for the three month battle. Genius came up with clear path to victory here, or did FellaGaga-52 tip him off?
Continuing to campaign against Joe Biden doesn't seem like the best strategy but it's at least on brand
Anybody remember the "Mack North" SNL sketches from the 90s? Not quite the same thing but reminds me of it. Will Ferrell wins a Congressional race and continues to run ads mocking the loser after the election is over
Well at least it's a well oiled machine ready for the three month battle. Genius came up with clear path to victory here, or did FellaGaga-52 tip him off?
I remember the first time I looked up Joe Biden on Twitter, and I thought whoever was writing up his tweets for him was doing a good job.
Every time I look at what Trump writes I know Trump actually wrote it.
in fire and fury they said one of the most frustrating things in the world for his staffers are their inability to stop him from tweeting whatever whimsy comes into his mind at whatever odd hours - how they often battled to take his twitter away but he'd never give it up nor agree to stop posting without running things by them first
Continuing to campaign against Joe Biden doesn't seem like the best strategy but it's at least on brand
Anybody remember the "Mack North" SNL sketches from the 90s? Not quite the same thing but reminds me of it. Will Ferrell wins a Congressional race and continues to run ads mocking the loser after the election is over
Never heard of Mack North before, but I like it.
I remember the first time I looked up Joe Biden on Twitter, and I thought whoever was writing up his tweets for him was doing a good job.
Every time I look at what Trump writes I know Trump actually wrote it.
There's a funny story from the guy who first set up Trump's twitter account and for a while Trump would tell him to tweet stuff. One day he saw Trump messing around with his phone for a long time and didn't think much of it. A couple days later he saw a Trump tweet he didn't send, he asked around and nobody else working for him did either and he realized it was Trump. He compared it to Jurassic Park when the raptors learn how to open doors.
that tweet is amazing
So I assume Harris plays the moderate out of the two?
I can't believe you actually believe that. He doesn't "look like" he's ever taken an order is much, much different than "doesn't work well". Can you not see the difference? How about this - She doesn't look like she could be a CEO. And just to be clear, I don't think "look" in this case is anything other than his appearance.
I see where you're coming from with that as you're focusing more on the "look" than I was. I'd suggest there's an understandable double standard at play there, in that saying a woman doesn't look like she could be a CEO is in line with a lot of fairly common sexist viewpoints, whereas if someone said a man doesn't look like he's ever done X, my first assumption would be that it was based on characteristics of that particular person, not his gender. That's how I read the initial post.
Anyway, I think I've taken us down a bit of a derail here, so I'll let it go at that and agree to disagree if that's where we're at. 😀
While the odds of Trump winning the election are slowly getting lower and lower on polymarket (at 52% now), the odds of a republican trifecta (which they call a "sweep" in that site) are at 33% after having recently touched a bottom of 28%.
Is it just noise, or we had some relevant house/senate polls coming out in republican favor?
What in the world is this Walz guy? A political candidate with substance and character? What the hell is going on out there?
A curios underdiscussed dynamic in recent polls is the large drop in support for RFK jr , who went from over 10% before the debates, to 5% now in polling averages (national).
A curios underdiscussed dynamic in recent polls is the large drop in support for RFK jr , who went from over 10% before the debates, to 5% now in polling averages (national).
Why is this curious? The percentage of people who will toy with the idea of voting for someone like RFK Jr. is much larger than the percentage that will actually do it. But as the election nears, many drift back to voting for someone who can win. And many start to pay a bit more attention and reluctantly conclude that the person who they were planning to vote for is a little nutty, a lot unprepared, or in the case of RFK Jr., both nutty and unprepared.
This happens fairly frequently in the U.S.
Why is this curious? The percentage of people who will toy with the idea of voting for someone like RFK Jr. is much larger than the percentage that will actually do it. But as the election nears, many drift back to voting for someone who can win. And many start to pay a bit more attention and reluctantly conclude that the person who they were planning to vote for is a little nutty, a lot unprepared, or in the case of RFK Jr., both nutty
Because it happened in like 40 days and we are still 90 days from the elections.
Ross Perot in 1996 was polling at pre-debate RFK jr numbers in the summer and ended up taking 8.4. RFK has already crumbled to 5% as the average of many good polls.
Johnson in 2016 was polling close to 9% up until the end of september (took 3.3% at the end). This recent example is probably what you have in mind.
It's surprising at least to me that people are seeing clarity so soon this cycle, especially given how low the net approval rates are both main candidates.
And keep in mind MANY states aren't in play at all (very popolous ones at that, often enough), so it would be the perfect opportunity for anyone not in love with either candidate to vote third party to signal that, in those states.
El Señor Free Speech Absolutist does it again
This is a real exchange between the US legislature and a member of the executive branch
“Ms Clinton, did you wipe the servers where your emails were stored?”
“Like with a towel?”
Ok so first, she had illegally rerouted and stored executive branch emails away from public eye. Then the SECRETARY of state either lies or trolls the person interviewing them. She should’ve been arrested for contempt of court.
Vance was a horrible pick though. Granted it's tough to find all that many ticket-ready Republicans who didn't at some point bash Trump, but he deserves the "weird" tag he's getting. Pence I understood fine but I'm not clear on what JDV is supposed to bring that they didn't already have
The election is over. Trump loses. His ear was never shot. Russia wins again
S&P almost back to even from Monday’s KAMBLABA CRASH!!!!
Because it happened in like 40 days and we are still 90 days from the elections.
Ross Perot in 1996 was polling at pre-debate RFK jr numbers in the summer and ended up taking 8.4. RFK has already crumbled to 5% as the average of many good polls.
Johnson in 2016 was polling close to 9% up until the end of september (took 3.3% at the end). This recent example is probably what you have in mind.
It's surprising at least to me that people are seei
Biden dropping out definitely had an impact on this as well. It's hard to even compare it to past 3 party runs for this reason. A lot of people were disgusted with those 2 geezers being the choices again after 2020. A lot of people hate Trump and it's been obvious that Biden's brain is basically a potato for a long time so they were gonna vote 3rd party.
Biden dropping out definitely had an impact on this as well. It's hard to even compare it to past 3 party runs for this reason. A lot of people were disgusted with those 2 geezers being the choices again after 2020. A lot of people hate Trump and it's been obvious that Biden's brain is basically a potato for a long time so they were gonna vote 3rd party.
Possible yes, but that in retrospect should then mean that RFK jr was getting votes/approval more from democrats-leaning people than from republican-leaning people, which wasn't obvious 2 months ago
