$25----->25k Bankroll Challenge on Ignition

An unrelated but important point wrt to regs using randomizers. You only use a randomizer for two reasons:

1. A hedge against ignorance

2. You know your opponent is using a randomizer

If your opponent never uses a randomizer then you should never use a randomizer.

I would say if you are playing microstakes/small stakes you almost certainly shouldn't be using one.

If you are playing in a fast fold environment it's important to understand that you will get coolered preflop more than at reg tables. This is because 3betting/4betting fringe hands are less incentivized.

I actually think I misplayed QQ here even though it is mixed, 4bet/fold is a better play.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($29.65) [VPIP: 16.7% | PFR: 16.7% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 6]
HERO ($34.07) [VPIP: 27.7% | PFR: 23.4% | AGG: 39.6% | Hands: 74397]
BB ($25) [VPIP: 20.4% | PFR: 18% | AGG: 45.4% | Hands: 559]
UTG ($26.67) [VPIP: 19.1% | PFR: 16.5% | AGG: 27.4% | Hands: 668]
HJ ($30.13) [VPIP: 29.5% | PFR: 25.9% | AGG: 40.6% | Hands: 117]
CO ($17.41) [VPIP: 20% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 5]

Dealt to Hero: Q♦ Q♥

UTG Folds, HJ Raises To $0.60, CO Calls $0.60, BTN Raises To $1.85, HERO Raises To $34.07 (allin), BB Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Calls $27.80 (allin)

Flop ($65.17): 6♥ A♥ 8♦

Turn ($65.17): 6♥ A♥ 8♦ 2♣

River ($65.17): 6♥ A♥ 8♦ 2♣ 2♦

I absolutely agree that no small stakes reg should use an rng, but I'm not sure the bolded part is right.

Even if our opponent uses RNG he can still be unbalanced since he obviously can't remember the exact frequencies, so even when using rng there will be human biases.
Would you use RNG in rock, papper, scissors vs someone who (for some reason) randomized to playing 50% rock?

But if I'm playing HU vs Linus and he tells me that he will never use RNG, I still think I should use RNG, because it will make me slightly more unpredictable and balanced.
But since I don't know all the frequencies as well as he does, I will still be unbalanced and predictable enough for him to exploit me.

Basically, I believe we should only use RNG as a defensive measure vs players who are better at exploiting us than we are at exploiting them.
If we have a skill edge, we are better off mixing based on feel/gameflow (if we need to mix at all).

I think the bolded in point number one is because Linus has a skill advantage so we are hedging against our own ignorance.

I can see rule #2 not always being correct, if we know our opponent is using a randomizer then he will still be unbalanced like you said. But you need a big sample and to understand how big of a sample to make it statistically relevant to use your strategy. So I would caveat your point with you need a high number of hands vs your opponent.

For example, I know Jarretman uses a randomizer when he plays because I've seen a bunch of his play and explains. So to counter his seemingly random play I would still 100% use a randomizer as a default, I would only not if I had huge samples on him and studied his game.

The only way we know for certain we have a skill edge is we need large samples on the player by definition so against an unknown reg at high stakes you should use a randomizer until you don't need it.

This logic follows for what Jayser was doing when he did his Ignition play and explains at 1knl. He was using a randomizer vs regs because he will never have a large enough sample to not use a randomizer.

I would say this is also reason #1. In this case we don't know his tendencies (=ignorance) and we don't want to gamble
on him overbluffing/underbluffing, overcalling/overfolding, etc (=hedging).

And if it turns out that Jarretman is a static GTO Bot who perfectly adheres to equilibrium and randomizes all his decisions,
we can make all our mixed decisions pure if we want.
If we he plays 1/3 rock/papper/scissors, we can play 100% rock if we want without losing any EV.
We can pure fold all our 0 EV bluffcatchers if we want without losing any EV.

Okay interesting hand.

Solver is never using non OB river sizing's here so it is probably a sizing tell using B75. When the nut's change OTR after 2 streets of aggression, your opponent will have more bluffs than theory when he bets (exception might be no gap straights).

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($30) [VPIP: 26.9% | PFR: 17.3% | AGG: 28.6% | Hands: 53]
HERO ($38.30) [VPIP: 27.7% | PFR: 23.4% | AGG: 39.6% | Flop Agg: 43.8% | Turn Agg: 36.1% | River Agg: 40.9% | 3Bet: 10.2% | 4Bet: 12.2% | Hands: 74455]
BB ($53.41) [VPIP: 14.3% | PFR: 7.1% | AGG: 80% | Flop Agg: 66.7% | Turn Agg: 100% | River Agg: 100% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 14.3% | Hands: 14]
UTG ($59.65) [VPIP: 15% | PFR: 15% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 20]
HJ ($30.90) [VPIP: 16.8% | PFR: 15% | AGG: 33.3% | Hands: 111]
CO ($25) [VPIP: 20.3% | PFR: 17.9% | AGG: 45.4% | Hands: 561]

Dealt to Hero: 6♥ A♠

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Folds, HERO Raises To $0.75, BB Calls $0.50

Hero SPR on Flop: [25.03 effective]
Flop ($1.50): 7♥ 5♣ A♦
HERO Bets $0.25 (Rem. Stack: $37.30), BB Raises To $1 (Rem. Stack: $51.66), HERO Calls $0.75 (Rem. Stack: $36.55)

Turn ($3.50): 7♥ 5♣ A♦ 8♦
HERO Checks, BB Bets $2.62 (Rem. Stack: $49.04), HERO Calls $2.62 (Rem. Stack: $33.93)

River ($8.74): 7♥ 5♣ A♦ 8♦ 9♥
HERO Checks, BB Bets $6.55 (Rem. Stack: $42.49), HERO Raises To $33.93 (allin), BB Folds

The interesting part for me in this hand is to figure out if AK is a higher EV call/jam/fold. I think jamming will out perform the others.

Also remember we can go back to MDA and what we know about it. 1 gap straight runouts are always bluffed more than no gap straight runouts.

This flop node for 3BP IP PFR is the most misplayed in all of poker imo (this is why I don't like over4betting here even though it is overfolded).

High likelihood our opponent is ranging B50 even though it is mixed 60%.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($25) [VPIP: 20.7% | PFR: 13.6% | AGG: 19.6% | Hands: 300]
HERO ($30.90) [VPIP: 27.7% | PFR: 23.4% | AGG: 39.6% | Flop Agg: 43.8% | 3Bet: 10.2% | 4Bet: 12.2% | Hands: 74472]
BB ($37.62) [VPIP: 30.4% | PFR: 29.1% | AGG: 48.1% | Flop Agg: 58.3% | 3Bet: 16.1% | Fold to 3Bet: 50% | 4Bet: 50% | Hands: 81]
UTG ($20.32) [VPIP: 50% | PFR: 50% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 2]
HJ ($34.37) [VPIP: 18.4% | PFR: 7.1% | AGG: 25.7% | Hands: 103]
CO ($50.31) [VPIP: 7.1% | PFR: 7.1% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 14]

Dealt to Hero: 6♠ A♠

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Folds, HERO Raises To $0.75, BB Raises To $2.50, HERO Calls $1.75

Hero SPR on Flop: [5.68 effective]
Flop ($5): 3♠ Q♣ J♣
HERO Checks, BB Bets $2.25 (Rem. Stack: $32.87), HERO Raises To $7 (Rem. Stack: $21.40), BB Folds

Let's go to an even more extreme example.

SBvsBB3BET

A♥K♠J♠

Most regs will probably range here but let's look at a solver.

Sets are high frequency X! (AA is range checked)

Non-intuitive call down vs fish that you will only know if you see the data. XR-OB-OB is overbluffed from fish (rake isn't taken out of the pot in the HH).

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
HERO ($32.79) [VPIP: 27.7% | PFR: 23.4% | AGG: 39.6% | Flop Agg: 43.8% | Turn Agg: 36.1% | River Agg: 41% | 3Bet: 10.2% | 4Bet: 12.1% | Hands: 74576]
SB ($29.75) [VPIP: 29.8% | PFR: 3.2% | AGG: 38.8% | Flop Agg: 29.4% | Turn Agg: 50% | River Agg: 46.2% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 34.7% | Hands: 125]
BB ($30.42) [VPIP: 11.3% | PFR: 8.6% | AGG: 31% | Hands: 153]
UTG ($26.55) [VPIP: 16.8% | PFR: 14% | AGG: 38.3% | Hands: 547]
HJ ($25.71) [VPIP: 19.7% | PFR: 15.8% | AGG: 37.4% | Hands: 531]
CO ($33.23) [VPIP: 28.1% | PFR: 17.7% | AGG: 24.3% | Hands: 101]

Dealt to Hero: 8♠ Q♠

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, HERO Raises To $0.60, SB Calls $0.50, BB Folds

Hero SPR on Flop: [20.1 effective]
Flop ($1.45): 2♦ Q♥ 9♠
SB Checks, HERO Bets $0.36 (Rem. Stack: $31.83), SB Raises To $1.44 (Rem. Stack: $27.71), HERO Calls $1.08 (Rem. Stack: $30.75)

Turn ($4.33): 2♦ Q♥ 9♠ T♦
SB Bets $4.33 (Rem. Stack: $23.38), HERO Calls $4.33 (Rem. Stack: $26.42)

River ($12.99): 2♦ Q♥ 9♠ T♦ 2♥
SB Bets $12.99 (Rem. Stack: $10.39), HERO Calls $12.99 (Rem. Stack: $13.43)

that’s pretty cool, thanks for all the hands

Hand update, try not to laugh at how pathetic my volume is.

Ignition:

25nl Blitz so far:

Will update at 10k hands.

Experimenting with some new lines. I'm not sure about this one vs better players but I don't think it can ever be that bad vs 25b population.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($32.22) [VPIP: 21.3% | PFR: 18.8% | AGG: 39.5% | Flop Agg: 42.1% | Turn Agg: 37.8% | River Agg: 45.8% | 3Bet: 12.5% | 4Bet: 6.7% | Hands: 613]
SB ($30) [VPIP: 11.7% | PFR: 9.3% | AGG: 29.4% | Hands: 165]
HERO ($30) [VPIP: 27.7% | PFR: 23.4% | AGG: 39.6% | Flop Agg: 43.8% | Turn Agg: 36.1% | River Agg: 41% | 3Bet: 10.2% | 4Bet: 12.1% | Cold Call: 9.5% | Hands: 74730]
UTG ($25.01) [VPIP: 22.8% | PFR: 16.3% | AGG: 29.3% | Hands: 870]
HJ ($32.91) [VPIP: 20% | PFR: 17.1% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 36]
CO ($25.89) [VPIP: 20% | PFR: 16.8% | AGG: 27.8% | Hands: 204]

Dealt to Hero: 4♠ 4♥

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Raises To $0.62, SB Folds, HERO Calls $0.37

Hero SPR on Flop: [21.93 effective]
Flop ($1.34): 5♣ 6♥ Q♥
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $0.42 (Rem. Stack: $31.18), HERO Calls $0.42 (Rem. Stack: $28.96)

Turn ($2.18): 5♣ 6♥ Q♥ 6♠
HERO Bets $0.54 (Rem. Stack: $28.42), BTN Calls $0.54 (Rem. Stack: $30.64)

River ($3.26): 5♣ 6♥ Q♥ 6♠ 2♦
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $2.20 (Rem. Stack: $28.44), HERO Raises To $9.86 (Rem. Stack: $18.56)

I'm generally a bit skeptical of xx turn x/r river and b x/r lines since population doesn't slow play river enough but I imagine weaker regs may not understand this and still overfold to raises, do you find that bluff raises vs large river bets generally works well vs weaker players (tight recs/weak regs) in the 25b pool? I assume you are finding alot of aggressive bluff raises to get that redline lol

I wanted to get your guys thoughts on this spot.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($28.75) [VPIP: 25% | PFR: 5% | AGG: 40% | Hands: 20]
SB ($25) [VPIP: 21.3% | PFR: 18.8% | AGG: 42.6% | Hands: 1033]
BB ($37.09) [VPIP: 22.7% | PFR: 16.4% | AGG: 29% | Flop Agg: 31.6% | Turn Agg: 27.6% | 3Bet: 7.1% | 4Bet: 10% | Hands: 905]
HERO ($33.47) [VPIP: 27.7% | PFR: 23.4% | AGG: 39.6% | Flop Agg: 43.8% | Turn Agg: 36.1% | 3Bet: 10.2% | 4Bet: 12.1% | Cold Call: 9.5% | Hands: 74785]
HJ ($25.71) [VPIP: 28.6% | PFR: 28.6% | AGG: 42.9% | Hands: 29]
CO ($30) [VPIP: 15.4% | PFR: 8.5% | AGG: 35.3% | Hands: 204]

Dealt to Hero: A♥ 8♥

HERO Raises To $0.62, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Calls $0.37

Hero SPR on Flop: [20.45 effective]
Flop ($1.34): A♠ 4♦ 3♠
BB Bets $0.50 (Rem. Stack: $35.84), HERO Calls $0.50 (Rem. Stack: $32.22)

Turn ($2.24): A♠ 4♦ 3♠ J♥
BB Bets $3.00 (Rem. Stack: $32.84), HERO ?

Call or Fold?

I think in blitz pools or any fast fold pool we need to overdo everything as a default and if you get called by a bluff catcher, you just make a note on that person.

The best style vs weak tight players is to overfold vs aggression and play like a maniac vs broken lines or lines where you have weakened their range.

Sometimes we don't go geometric. This is a spot where we just go B20/B20/B10 with most of our range

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($47.60) [VPIP: 34.9% | PFR: 29.4% | AGG: 45.7% | Flop Agg: 56.5% | Turn Agg: 50% | River Agg: 11.1% | 3Bet: 12.5% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 129]
HERO ($30.01) [VPIP: 27.7% | PFR: 23.4% | AGG: 39.6% | Flop Agg: 43.8% | Turn Agg: 36.1% | River Agg: 41% | 3Bet: 10.2% | Fold to 3Bet: 58% | 4Bet: 12.1% | Hands: 74925]
BB ($25.67) [VPIP: 21.6% | PFR: 19.2% | AGG: 41.5% | Hands: 1080]
UTG ($24.66) [VPIP: 18.3% | PFR: 14% | AGG: 36.4% | Hands: 95]
HJ ($33.68) [VPIP: 22.5% | PFR: 13.7% | AGG: 40.7% | Hands: 102]
CO ($25.45) [VPIP: 22.6% | PFR: 16.2% | AGG: 29.7% | Hands: 948]

Dealt to Hero: T♠ A♠

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Raises To $0.50, HERO Raises To $2.55, BB Folds, BTN Calls $2.05

Hero SPR on Flop: [5.13 effective]
Flop ($5.35): J♦ 9♦ 6♦
HERO Bets $1.05 (Rem. Stack: $26.41), BTN Calls $1.05 (Rem. Stack: $44)

Turn ($7.45): J♦ 9♦ 6♦ A♣
HERO Bets $2.25 (Rem. Stack: $24.16), BTN Calls $2.25 (Rem. Stack: $41.75)

River ($11.95): J♦ 9♦ 6♦ A♣ 9♣
HERO Bets $1.15 (Rem. Stack: $23.01), BTN Calls $1.15 (Rem. Stack: $40.60)

Yeah there's close to zero correlation between what regs should do and what they actually do

Feels underbluffed I mean how many regs actually know to donk this board correctly and to OB spades ott?

This is an amazing quote.

I would think that would mean it is overbluffed no?

If someone knows a spot that well I just assume they trend towards overbluffing it rather underbluffing it.

You see this in BTNvsBB SRP, they overbluff a lot of lines because it is the most studied spot.

idt anyone is beating 200b for 8bb over a large sample. If they are, then they are the apex reg. I suspect most of those guys, including the two you listed, are barely breaking even. The regs all have leaks, but they aren't easy to exploit for large win rates like a pool with a lot of fish. Very few fish splash around there, and they don't last long. Most of the exploits involve losing less vs them than the average pool player.

Standard strategy vs unknowns is to play the opposite of what they think you will do.

Turn is interesting because it's a Donk spot for OOP.

OTR my opponent snap called so next time I will OB in this spot with value.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
HERO ($37.69) [VPIP: 27.7% | PFR: 23.4% | AGG: 39.6% | Flop Agg: 43.7% | Turn Agg: 36.1% | River Agg: 41% | 3Bet: 10.2% | Fold to 3Bet: 58% | 4Bet: 12.1% | Hands: 75009]
SB ($25.35) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 9]
BB ($25.97) [VPIP: 22.9% | PFR: 17.8% | AGG: 31.4% | Hands: 119]
UTG ($62.84) [VPIP: 19.9% | PFR: 17.6% | AGG: 36.3% | Hands: 695]
HJ ($31.63) [VPIP: 17.1% | PFR: 9.8% | AGG: 14.3% | Flop Agg: 33.3% | Turn Agg: 0% | River Agg: 0% | 3Bet: 5.6% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 44]
CO ($53.60) [VPIP: 16.6% | PFR: 13.7% | AGG: 25.8% | Hands: 320]

Dealt to Hero: K♥ K♦

UTG Folds, HJ Raises To $0.55, CO Folds, HERO Raises To $1.83, SB Folds, BB Folds, HJ Calls $1.28

Hero SPR on Flop: [7.43 effective]
Flop ($4.01): 2♣ 6♦ J♦
HJ Checks, HERO Bets $2 (Rem. Stack: $33.86), HJ Calls $2 (Rem. Stack: $27.80)

Turn ($8.01): 2♣ 6♦ J♦ 9♣
HJ Checks, HERO Checks

River ($8.01): 2♣ 6♦ J♦ 9♣ 6♣
HJ Checks, HERO Bets $6 (Rem. Stack: $27.86), HJ Calls $6 (Rem. Stack: $21.80)

You shouldn't be comfortable, you should be uncomfortably aggressive to the point where you are nervous about some hands.

We don't need to guess vs triple barrel lines, we have data.

For example:

If we are BB vs SB B30-B-B - we know we can raise air profitably. All you have to do is look at BF Frequencies OTR.

The old adage of "if you never get caught bluffing, you aren't bluffing enough" still applies.

Does this outperfom B-B-B?

They have more QQ than they should, we're unblocking AJ. When does the MDA (presumably here overfold turn/ overcall C-X-C) supercede the raw EV power of maxxing vs stationsim? Or is there some other exploit I'm missing?

Also, Kendoo asked me to tell you nice results.

MDA show's every line being overfolded. But the population is weak tight so you don't want folds with value.

You have to look at board texture as well, there's not many hands calling 3 streets so against 25b population you prefer to be more passive.