2024 ELECTION THREAD

2024 ELECTION THREAD

The next presidential race will be here soon! Please see current Bovada odds. Thoughts?


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14 July 2022 at 02:28 PM
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by Luciom P

It's not only math for many reasons.

One being for example that getting a mortgage forces you to save (the equity portion of each payment is savings).

The more you aren't otherwise capable to save regardlessly, the more getting a mortgage makes for you specifically sense and viceversa, ceteris paribus.

Didace obviously wasn't talking about the psychology of saving.


by Rococo P

Didace obviously wasn't talking about the psychology of saving.

No but i am, given we discuss rent v buying, and that's one aspect of it (if you want to help someone you know make a decision). Simply responding to the "it's math".


by Luciom P

It's not only math for many reasons.

One being for example that getting a mortgage forces you to save (the equity portion of each payment is savings).

The more you aren't otherwise capable to save regardlessly, the more getting a mortgage makes for you specifically sense and viceversa, ceteris paribus.

It's a math problem with many variables, some of which are unknowable best guesses. One's ability to save in various manners is one of those.


Originally Posted by pokeringo
The fact that it is a very well known organization says something about its credibility?

Straw man. A well-known organization was simply to dispute your claim that "we know nothing about its credibility." It was not a demonstration of its credibility.

Probably my mistake. But I think is not so far fetched me coming to the conclusion that you were trying to connect a "very well know organization" to it having credibility.

Quote:
Originally Posted by pokeringo
It (The very well know organization you mentioned, obviously!) provides concrete examples? Then shoot. I am excited to hear them.

Is your google broken?

Like I said before, I don't let a research engine decide what I think.
And you didn't gave me the name of that well know organization, so where should I look for the information?

Save your hopes and dreams for your diary.

Do you know that hope as quite of meanings? Once more, trying to take things out of context?

"We're talking about a conspiracy theorists' blog. Enjoy it if that's your thing."

He does exactly what other investigative journalists do: He shares information and connects the dots the way it makes more sense for him. The only difference being, that while he shares his sources and he comes to pro-human solutions for the problems we might face, most of others, in particular very well know organizations do neither. The term "conspiracy theory" is used often these days to differ without conversation the information that other people shares.

You seem to be trying to send sand to people's eyes or you simply don't want to look at information with an open mind. So I leave you to it, whatever is your preference.


Ok my apologies


by pokeringo P

The only difference being, that while he shares his sources and he comes to pro-human solutions for the problems we might face, most of others, in particular very well know organizations do neither. The term "conspiracy theory" is used often these days to differ without conversation the information that other people shares.

What's a "pro-human solution"? Could you give an example of a pro-human solution vs. a non pro-human (anti-human?) solution?


Final solution was pretty anti-human I suppose.


Small crowd, many leaving early.

I don't ramble, I'm a very smart guy, really smart.

he spent a lot of time talking about how he believes he is better looking than Kamala Harris


So what is the expectations for the Democratic National Convention ? Violence? Protests ? Do they let the uncommitted delegates speak? Or is it smooth sailing?

I see they have a suspected rapist and suspected pedophile speaking on Wednesday. Though he was a great president 😀


by lozen P

So what is the expectations for the Democratic National Convention ? Violence? Protests ? Do they let the uncommitted delegates speak? Or is it smooth sailing?

I see they have a suspected rapist and suspected pedophile speaking on Wednesday. Though he was a great president 😀

lol, these guys miss Biden so very much


by lozen P

So what is the expectations for the Democratic National Convention ? Violence? Protests ? Do they let the uncommitted delegates speak? Or is it smooth sailing?

I see they have a suspected rapist and suspected pedophile speaking on Wednesday. Though he was a great president 😀

It'll be smooth. There will be Gaza-related protests that will be uneventful, but FOX will single out the bad actors and the right-wingers will then use those bad actors to represent everyone who isn't a Trumper.


by lozen P

So what is the expectations for the Democratic National Convention ? Violence? Protests ? Do they let the uncommitted delegates speak? Or is it smooth sailing?

I see they have a suspected rapist and suspected pedophile speaking on Wednesday. Though he was a great president 😀

Trump is speaking at the dnc??


by lozen P

So what is the expectations for the Democratic National Convention ? Violence? Protests ? Do they let the uncommitted delegates speak? Or is it smooth sailing?

I see they have a suspected rapist and suspected pedophile speaking on Wednesday. Though he was a great president 😀

Stay mad


by PointlessWords P

Cite where renters likely pay less than homeowners due to taxes insurance and repairs.

Nbd if you made it up , just admit it if so

Not to mention rent goes up a ton year after year. Your mortgage stays the same, HOA and taxes may vary a little.

Most houses don’t need lots of repairs lol


Anyway, please cite

Zillow has my house at 605K with a rent zestimate of 3133. If I were to buy my house right now at current rates with 50k down, my mortgage payment without taxes and insurance would be 3960 - so about 4,800 or more for a mortgage payment. Also, everyone renting will go through a ton of time both lookiing for tenants and fixing up the place for them.

If the value of my house were to crash, rent prices would also come down.

That also ignores the 50k I just lit on fire that went to realtor/bank fees that I wont get back.


It’s sorta remarkable how many people keep saying ‘Donald trump just needs to focus on talking policy’ while ignoring the fact that at his core donald trump is legitimately an incredibly stupid human being who isn’t capable of speaking intelligently about anything


by formula72 P

Zillow has my house at 605K with a rent zestimate of 3133. If I were to buy my house right now at current rates with 50k down, my mortgage payment without taxes and insurance would be 3960 - so about 4,800 or more for a mortgage payment. Also, everyone renting will go through a ton of time both lookiing for tenants and fixing up the place for them.

If the value of my house were to crash, rent prices would also come down.

Mandatory mortgage related jnsurance in Italy is like 200-300/year for such a house (covers only fire and explosions basically, but we don't build with wood) and no property tax on owner occupied housing (just to give an example of how things can be very different elsewhere).

But interest deductions here are close to nil.


by StoppedRainingMen P

It’s sorta remarkable how many people keep saying ‘Donald trump just needs to focus on talking policy’ while ignoring the fact that at his core donald trump is legitimately an incredibly stupid human being who isn’t capable of speaking intelligently about anything

He's also quite obviously completely insane. I maintain if that guy weren't (relatively) rich he'd be locked up in a padded room somewhere smearing his own feces all over the walls.


by formula72 P

Zillow has my house at 605K with a rent zestimate of 3133. If I were to buy my house right now at current rates with 50k down, my mortgage payment without taxes and insurance would be 3960 - so about 4,800 or more for a mortgage payment. Also, everyone renting will go through a ton of time both lookiing for tenants and fixing up the place for them.

If the value of my house were to crash, rent prices would also come down.

That also ignores t

Zillow is notoriously inaccurate.

You really don’t go through a ton of time but it is worth spending a ton of time to get $12k a year out of someone

How many bedrooms do you have? Sounds like you can rent each one out and live for free in garage or living room

So you think that when home prices crash, rent also crashes?

By how much, 1:1?


I’d rent out the place for to tenants for $4k a month and you pay $800 out of pocket. After a few years rents will go up and you’ll be able to live for free.


You don’t want a house where it’s yours after 30 years and you live for free?


A main purpose of the vice presidential candidate is to
highlight the presidential candidate’s judgment and values.

JD Vance isn’t helping Trump’s ticket.

It’s likely simply too late for Trump to pick someone else.

https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opin...


“Giving Kamala Harris control over inflation policy, Shannon, it’s like giving Jeffrey Epstein control over human trafficking policy,” Vance said. “The American people are much smarter than that. They don’t buy the idea that Kamala Harris represents a fresh start.”

Couch****er weirdly invoking Epstein in this bizarre ass comparison is bad enough in a vacuum

Seems much worse considering, you know, of the 4 people atop the 2 tickets trump is the only one implicated by Epstein


Reports this week claimed that Donald Trump was lashing out at his staff behind the scenes.

Vance Swears Trump Is Laughing And Joking With Staff.

"He's just having a good time. He's laughing.
He's telling jokes. He calls people and just wants to shoot the breeze."

I'd believe Vance. Donald comes across as such a happy and genial old gentleman

Before he entered politics, there was one of those celebrity roasts
"honoring" Donald Trump. He didn't crack a smile the entire time.




by formula72 P

Zillow has my house at 605K with a rent zestimate of 3133. If I were to buy my house right now at current rates with 50k down, my mortgage payment without taxes and insurance would be 3960 - so about 4,800 or more for a mortgage payment. Also, everyone renting will go through a ton of time both lookiing for tenants and fixing up the place for them.

If the value of my house were to crash, rent prices would also come down.

That also ignores t

A bit disingenuous to use current market value for homeowner and compare To current renter .


One thing I haven't seen mentioned is the shift in electoral votes for specific states from 2020 to 2024.

Here is the breakdown of 2024 compared to 2020.

California -- minus 1
Colorado -- plus 1
Florida -- plus 1
Illinois -- minus 1
Michigan -- minus 1
Montana -- plus 1
Ohio -- minus 1
Oregon -- plus 1
Pennsylvania -- minus 1
Texas -- plus 2
WV -- minus 1

If we consider Pennsylvania a true swing state, then this is a structural shift of three electoral votes in favor of the Republicans, which would translate to six electoral votes in terms of margin. It is relatively difficult (but not impossible) to draw a map for 2024 where this matters. If there is a similar shift during the next reapportionment cycle, it really could start to make a difference.

Every time I look at the electoral map for this election, I reach the same conclusion. If Trump wins 3 out of the 4 of Michigan, Pennsylvania, NC, and Georgia, he wins the election. If he doesn't, Kamala wins.


Wouldn't the next reapportionment not be until 2034?-- or 2032 I suppose...


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