2024 Fantasy Football Thread
Welcome to the 2024 fantasy season, where I'm officially addicted to best ball. I've been drafting since the end of January. Through 95 drafts, my exposures are below. The player order is based on current ADP. Some of these ADPs have been quite fluid over the last 3 months, with FAs and rookies moving the most. Most of my exposures are structurally driven, rather than player take driven. Especially at this point in the game, pre-draft.
But there are some players I simply couldn't avoid going heavy on, like McBride and Andrews in the 5th round. I'm actually quite heavy all of the top TEs, minus LaPorta and Kincaid. I also tried to make sure I had at least 1 TE by the end of round 8, with Ferguson being the last of the group.
Also took approaches like attacking Nabers and Odunze harder than MHJ, at their relative prices.
What do we like and not like?
Rookie season is also upon us. Redraft is still 3.5 months away from heating up, but there will be rookie drafts, dynasty startups, and best ball drafts leading up until then.
Good luck to all, and may injuries and variance be kind.
Anybody have tips for drafting in a total points format? I think I'm gonna get my free money on Drafters and put in a 100 bucks and get 100 bucks.
I'll be staying away from the guy's who we know will be missing time. I'll probably draft fewer rookie WR's. It's seems like now would be the best time to play this format since you will have less dead players.
I took my first Akers share yesterday. I’m not sure if he has the upside, especially for end of season, but willing to take anyone to bet against Pierce.
I don’t believe in any back off Achilles tear. A bad knee I could see but I’m way off when it’s an Achilles same for jk dobbins
I was on Dobbins when he was going around pick 175 on UD. He's going usually in the 140 and 150's now. I wish I would have taken more. There are very few later round picks who have a legit path to becoming a league winner. I think JK is one of them. The path involves winning several legs of a parlay along the way. In the early drafting season we didn't know if he was healthy but it seems he is now so that's a win. We didn't know if he was gonna make the team but he has so that's a win. They didn't spend high draft capital on an RB or bring in another free agent so that's a win. The Chargers have significantly improved their offensive line so that's a win. None of the other backs on the roster behind him have stepped up significantly so that's a win. Right now the biggest win we are looking for is JK staying healthy. That's obviously gonna be the tough one. If he does stay healthy we are talking possibly a top ten back. He is still very young.
If you have 3 or 4 solid RB's in your room I think adding Dobbins is worth the risk. This could easily quickly go to zero but maybe not.
I don’t believe in any back off Achilles tear. A bad knee I could see but I’m way off when it’s an Achilles same for jk dobbins
When we are building a best ball portfolio, I think it's fine to take shots at those guys chasing the ultimate upside.
Jk and Akers are free bets. If you think of it in terms of auction dollars, everyone from around the 13th/14th round and later is basically worth $1 in an auction draft. It's a bunch of dart throws you're hoping to hit on. Dobbins has one of the cleaner paths of any RB going in that range.
I have around 8% Dobbins, and mong lays out the reasons why in the post below.
I was on Dobbins when he was going around pick 175 on UD. He's going usually in the 140 and 150's now. I wish I would have taken more. There are very few later round picks who have a legit path to becoming a league winner. I think JK is one of them. The path involves winning several legs of a parlay along the way. In the early drafting season we didn't know if he was healthy but it seems he is now so that's a win. We didn't know if he was g
Pun intended? lol
With that said, I was completely out on Akers in the 7th last year. Pricing matters a lot betting on players coming off of injury.
What adjustments should we make in draft strategy for a 10 team league vs a 12? Do elite QBs or TE go lower? Anything else?
I reached a little for Tank and Stroud, because I don't have much exposure to any big Texans stacks.
Rest of the draft fell pretty much in line.
From 1.12
QB - Stroud, Lawrence, Watson
RB - Zamir, Najee, Moss, Braelon, Shipley, Sanders
WR - Puka, Nico, Tank, Jeudy, Boyd, McMillan, Franklin
TE - Andrews, Kmet, Knox
I reached a little for Tank and Stroud, because I don't have much exposure to any big Texans stacks.
Rest of the draft fell pretty much in line.
From 1.12
QB - Stroud, Lawrence, Watson
RB - Zamir, Najee, Moss, Braelon, Shipley, Sanders
WR - Puka, Nico, Tank, Jeudy, Boyd, McMillan, Franklin
TE - Andrews, Kmet, Knox
Like this team. Think you could have gotten away with 2 qbs .
I reached a little for Tank and Stroud, because I don't have much exposure to any big Texans stacks.
Rest of the draft fell pretty much in line.
From 1.12
QB - Stroud, Lawrence, Watson
RB - Zamir, Najee, Moss, Braelon, Shipley, Sanders
WR - Puka, Nico, Tank, Jeudy, Boyd, McMillan, Franklin
TE - Andrews, Kmet, Knox
Naked Trevor Lawrence I don’t understand that play but all in all good draft according to adp
I just did a 10 man best ball draft where I took four ATL Falcons. I got Bijon 1.6, Drake 3.6, Pitts 7.6 and Cousins 13.6.
I am just wondering if this is at all a strategic error to stack this heavily?
I can see the logic behind a QB-WR stack and QB-RB-WR stack or any combination of those. But am I going overboard by taking the QB-RB and top two receivers on one team? Is this relying too much on one offense or is this ok for the games the offense goes off?
I just did a 10 man best ball draft where I took four ATL Falcons. I got Bijon 1.6, Drake 3.6, Pitts 7.6 and Cousins 13.6.
I am just wondering if this is at all a strategic error to stack this heavily?
I can see the logic behind a QB-WR stack and QB-RB-WR stack or any combination of those. But am I going overboard by taking the QB-RB and top two receivers on one team? Is this relying too much on one offense or is this ok for the games the of
That would be overkill in DFS, but it's not terrible in BestBall since it's season long and you're hunting for spike weeks.
I wouldn't take more than 3 skill player though.
It’s fine to stack heavy. But you have to be careful with regard to draft capital.
Those prices are pushing it, but I think it’s fine in a vacuum.
I see people do all 3 Texans WRs + Stroud or all 3 Bears WRs with Caleb. And things really have to go right for those to pay off at cost.
Same with stacking Reek/Waddle in 1st/2nd or AJB/DeVonta in 1st/3rd.
Think the most I’ve done is 4 skill positions.
Drake looking good. Jacoby shoulder injury.
It’s happening boys.
2nd and final ffpc for the year
$350 managed 12 tm from the 6 spot
Ppr, 1.5 tep
Went 0 rb. Initial plan was Breece or Bijan but both went top 4. Had planned Achane in the 2nd, but Puka fell and I couldn’t pass him up there
Qb - Mahomes
Rb - Warren
Rb - Singletary
Wr - Chase
Wr - Puka
Te - Kincaid
Flex - Rice
Flex - Kirk
K - Koo
DST - LAC
Bench rb - Chandler, Wright, B Allen, Vidal, Estime
Bench wr - Odunze, AD Mitchell, Legette, QJ
Bench Te - Theo Johnson
I don’t really have any experience with these, but it seems like a good draft, thoughts?
2nd and final ffpc for the year
$350 managed 12 tm from the 6 spot
Ppr, 1.5 tep
Went 0 rb. Initial plan was Breece or Bijan but both went top 4. Had planned Achane in the 2nd, but Puka fell and I couldn’t pass him up there
Qb - Mahomes
Rb - Warren
Rb - Singletary
Wr - Chase
Wr - Puka
Te - Kincaid
Flex - Rice
Flex - Kirk
K - Koo
DST - LAC
Bench rb - Chandler, Wright, B Allen, Vidal, Estime
Bench wr - Odunze, AD Mitchell, Legette, QJ
Bench Te - Theo John
It looks really good but I have my best ball goggles on.
I’m looking forward to a much needed break. I cannot wait for my slows to be done. Sub 80 now, so the end is near.
I’ll probably grind some poker, but my managed leagues will give me my in-season fix. I have no interest in DFS. Too much time needed on a weekly basis to actually be +ev. The thing I like most about best ball is drafting the same slate for 4 months.
What do you need to be spending your time on in DFS to be +EV. I broke exactly even last year so obviously I was doing something wrong (Or right depending how you look at it). Do these guy's break down the games? Are they studying which DB's will be up against certain receivers etc?
I just passively listened to podcasts. Obviously this is not enough.
This will be the first time in 30 years I won't be in a managed league. I used to do several NFFC online championships and an office league. I'm actually happy not to have to deal with that anymore.
One of those rare drafts where I take 2 QBs and 2 TEs thru the first 10 rounds so I'll need some luck at RB.
Also, 6 rookie WRs is a lot more than I'm comfortable with as well.
From 1.01
QB - Dak, Tua
RB - Javonte, Spears, Chubb, Allgeier, Shipley, Mason, Akers
WR - Lamb, Nico, Waddle, Worthy, AD, Legette, Burton, Malik, Flournoy
TE - McBride, Ferguson
2nd and final ffpc for the year
$350 managed 12 tm from the 6 spot
Ppr, 1.5 tep
Went 0 rb. Initial plan was Breece or Bijan but both went top 4. Had planned Achane in the 2nd, but Puka fell and I couldn’t pass him up there
Qb - Mahomes
Rb - Warren
Rb - Singletary
Wr - Chase
Wr - Puka
Te - Kincaid
Flex - Rice
Flex - Kirk
K - Koo
DST - LAC
Bench rb - Chandler, Wright, B Allen, Vidal, Estime
Bench wr - Odunze, AD Mitchell, Legette, QJ
Bench Te - Theo John
Just watched a little of an ETR draft for one of these, and it sounds like the strategy is to try to get double elite TE by round 4.
They picked from 1.04 and went Bijan, Kincaid, Waddle, Kittle
