$25----->25k Bankroll Challenge on Ignition

Cool hand, makes sense that check would be overly condensed. Even then, how sure are you about the value part? They aren't under raising vs jam

GL in the 25nitl blitz streets

One of the best ways to beat good regs (for your stakes) is to use polarized sizing's with a merged range, especially when ranges are face up.

A solver will never bet here, it says it's a 4bb mistake. But betting will outperform because of how SB is constructing their xc-xc-xc range.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($30.46) [VPIP: 22.8% | PFR: 20.3% | AGG: 37.2% | Hands: 942]
SB ($26.01) [VPIP: 22.9% | PFR: 20.9% | AGG: 39.3% | Flop Agg: 47.3% | Turn Agg: 34.3% | River Agg: 38.5% | 3Bet: 9.4% | 4Bet: 8.7% | Hands: 602]
HERO ($59.32) [VPIP: 27.9% | PFR: 23.5% | AGG: 39.2% | Flop Agg: 43.6% | Turn Agg: 35.3% | River Agg: 40.8% | 3Bet: 10.2% | 4Bet: 11.9% | Cold Call: 9.7% | Hands: 82228]
UTG ($98.33) [VPIP: 13.9% | PFR: 9.3% | AGG: 45.5% | Hands: 196]
HJ ($20.85) [VPIP: 29.3% | PFR: 18.2% | AGG: 40.4% | Hands: 365]
CO ($40.20) [VPIP: 36.1% | PFR: 19.7% | AGG: 19.4% | Hands: 61]

Dealt to Hero: A♦ J♠

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Raises To $0.75, HERO Calls $0.50

Hero SPR on Flop: [16.84 effective]
Flop ($1.50): 5♥ 2♥ J♣
SB Checks, HERO Bets $0.75 (Rem. Stack: $57.82), SB Calls $0.75 (Rem. Stack: $24.51)

Turn ($3): 5♥ 2♥ J♣ 8♠
SB Checks, HERO Bets $3.40 (Rem. Stack: $54.42), SB Calls $3.40 (Rem. Stack: $21.11)

River ($9.80): 5♥ 2♥ J♣ 8♠ Q♣
SB Checks, HERO Bets $54.42 (allin), SB Calls $21.11 (allin)

It's actually not range bet OTT now that I look at a solver but I still think the concept applies.

I don't think I'm understanding your question, what do you mean they aren't under raising vs a jam?

thx

I mean they won't under raise because that's impossible when you jam. But if you block a lot of EV comes from their raises, not just calls.

Jamming is like 2.5x pot or almost 3x pot though. I don't think I'm jamming I'd just OB if I'm bluffing

Maybe in theory a lot of EV comes from their raises but it doesn't matter as much because they have too much SDV. Also IP under-raises vs block bets which incentivizes blocking. Although this runout isn't the best with bdfd complete to encourage calling.

I bet if you looked at MDA vs Theory for this runout type (specifically K OTT and IP checking) the calling frequencies are higher than a solver vs xc-x-b if you bet small. They will just bet air too often and X back SDV and they don't merge enough OTT.

It would work better if the board was lower to capture more calls so like 9 high board--->K OTT would be a better example to get all TT-QQ.

This is also why checking to induce a bluff OTR doesn't work since bluffs bet turn too much.

do you mind making a post that's an answer key to all the acronyms you use? the more hhs i look at, the more new stuff i see

ie i'm assuming that B30 = blocker bet 30% pot but OB is no clue

My point is that as you bet larger, the impact of villain under raising decreases, eventually reaching 0

Almost everyone underestimates how much of your value comes from getting raised, even with sizes like 3/4 pot

(DMed you the calculations for this line)

BC = Bluff catcher so anything that is a 0EV call in theory

OTT = On the turn

OTR = On the river

OB = Overbet

Any others you need?

well ott/otr are old school so knew those, did not realize OB was for overbet nor that BC was bluff catcher though so that was very helpful

thanks, appreciate it 😀

EDA = Experimental Donkey Attack

It's when you donk because you think GTO donks which means you should donk and so you do donk but it's totally wrong. Then you end up double barrelling because you're confused. But it's all ok because it was 'an experiment'

lol. I do this all the time and then after the flop I go oh ***** how do I play turn and river.

Solver never bets here but we should. Population will probe 8x and FD's too often OTT so when they x/c they won't have as many as they should.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($23.86) [VPIP: 50% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 39% | Hands: 45]
SB ($28.85) [VPIP: 15% | PFR: 9.2% | AGG: 18.6% | Hands: 454]
BB ($25) [VPIP: 23.8% | PFR: 19% | AGG: 37.5% | Flop Agg: 42.3% | Turn Agg: 36.5% | River Agg: 34.4% | 3Bet: 9% | 4Bet: 14% | Cold Call: 10.1% | Hands: 1214]
HERO ($51.23) [VPIP: 27.9% | PFR: 23.4% | AGG: 39.1% | Flop Agg: 43.3% | Turn Agg: 35.3% | River Agg: 40.8% | 3Bet: 10.2% | 4Bet: 11.9% | Hands: 84119]
HJ ($30.68) [VPIP: 9.2% | PFR: 8% | AGG: 38.7% | Hands: 423]
CO ($45.73) [VPIP: 20.9% | PFR: 16.3% | AGG: 29.8% | Hands: 387]

Dealt to Hero: J♣ T♣

HERO Raises To $0.50, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Calls $0.25

Hero SPR on Flop: [22.27 effective]
Flop ($1.10): 6♣ 7♠ K♥
BB Checks, HERO Checks

Turn ($1.10): 6♣ 7♠ K♥ 5♠
BB Checks, HERO Bets $0.82 (Rem. Stack: $49.91), BB Calls $0.82 (Rem. Stack: $23.68)

River ($2.74): 6♣ 7♠ K♥ 5♠ 9♠
BB Checks, HERO Bets $2.74 (Rem. Stack: $47.17)

This is a cool hand because there is a lot going on.

1) Turn is a range donk spot for OOP

2) In Theory my bluffs are supposed to come from K9s/QJs/T9s/AJo

3) In game I realized I blocked KJs and he can't have it. I also thought TT/99 xr flop too often so I jam.

What do you guys think?

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
HERO ($49.05) [VPIP: 27.8% | PFR: 23.4% | AGG: 39.1% | Flop Agg: 43.3% | Turn Agg: 35.3% | River Agg: 40.7% | 3Bet: 10.2% | Fold to 3Bet: 57.3% | 4Bet: 11.8% | Hands: 84455]
SB ($32.69) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 1]
BB ($25.63) [VPIP: 22.7% | PFR: 19% | AGG: 25.2% | Hands: 533]
UTG ($33.13) [VPIP: 23.3% | PFR: 14% | AGG: 40% | Flop Agg: 20% | Turn Agg: 50% | River Agg: 100% | 3Bet: 5.9% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 46]
HJ ($32.28) [VPIP: 24.3% | PFR: 19% | AGG: 39.7% | Hands: 833]
CO ($25) [VPIP: 24.4% | PFR: 19.6% | AGG: 33.2% | Hands: 1234]

Dealt to Hero: A♣ K♣

UTG Raises To $0.65, HJ Folds, CO Folds, HERO Raises To $1.88, SB Folds, BB Folds, UTG Calls $1.23

Hero SPR on Flop: [7.6 effective]
Flop ($4.11): 9♦ T♣ K♥
UTG Checks, HERO Bets $1.32 (Rem. Stack: $45.85), UTG Calls $1.32 (Rem. Stack: $29.93)

Turn ($6.75): 9♦ T♣ K♥ J♦
UTG Checks, HERO Checks

River ($6.75): 9♦ T♣ K♥ J♦ J♠
UTG Bets $4.17 (Rem. Stack: $25.76) HERO Raises To $45.85 (allin)

This spot might not be intuitive to a lot of people if you haven't studied solvers. This is a high frequency flop check spot.

IP has more Qx/66/44 than us so we get recked.

All AKs basically range X. But then we get a huge XR range.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($23.37) [VPIP: 20.3% | PFR: 17.7% | AGG: 40% | Flop Agg: 50% | Turn Agg: 35.3% | River Agg: 30.8% | 3Bet: 4.9% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 241]
HERO ($30.35) [VPIP: 27.9% | PFR: 23.4% | AGG: 39.1% | Flop Agg: 43.3% | Turn Agg: 35.3% | River Agg: 40.8% | 3Bet: 10.2% | Fold to 3Bet: 57.3% | 4Bet: 11.8% | Hands: 84612]
BB ($25) [VPIP: 27.5% | PFR: 24.5% | AGG: 45.9% | Hands: 103]
UTG ($34.57) [VPIP: 25.4% | PFR: 20.6% | AGG: 58.8% | Hands: 64]
HJ ($80.15) [VPIP: 23.6% | PFR: 20.4% | AGG: 45.7% | Hands: 325]
CO ($34.20) [VPIP: 22.2% | PFR: 18% | AGG: 28.9% | Hands: 613]

Dealt to Hero: K♥ A♥

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Raises To $0.52, HERO Raises To $2.91, BB Folds, BTN Calls $2.39

Hero SPR on Flop: [3.37 effective]
Flop ($6.07): 6♠ Q♥ 4♣
HERO ?

Solver

by DooDooPoker P

A good way to handle swings mentally is to be realistic about how often you will lose each session.

So I am currently 2 tabling 25nl blitz and I play 500 hands a session. If I think my winrate is 5bb. This is how often I will lose any individual session.

I have an over 45% chance of losing any individual session.

We better get used to losing.

What percent of regs in the pool would you estimate are winning 5bb or over? Always kinda curious what the winrate distribution looks like, in my 10b DB most regs were losing -3bb/100 pre rakeback lol.

I haven't been impressed with the reg play at 25nl blitz.

Probably 10% are winning 5bb or over. The biggest winner is the rake by far 😀

Yeah from my experience there's alot of bad regs in blitz but just not too many high vpip recreationals to inflate winrates, maybe max exploit strategies vs weak regs are more important in blitz than vs fish.

It’s because at 25NL no one knows how to play the game - those who have high $$$ profit at the stake are just the people who got to winning 1-2bb/100 pre-rake and phoned it in for the rest of their lives to grind 8 tables 9-5

basically anyone who got to 5bb+ also has the common sense to move to 50 and keep pushing like one should

Honestly I'd be surprised if it didn't round to 0. You'd basically have to be smurfing, like DDP

most of the eu trash regs just grind 30-40% rakeback out from 25-100nl because it serves them well in their country. genuinely good for them that they can make a sustainable living doing that.

however it’s just a 9-5 with no employee benefits and you come out at the end with no career experience or prospects. you’re just building a liability of a career until action dries up and you’re off to mcdonalds

I love Mcdonalds so I'm on a good career trajectory.

Maybe i can play 25nl blitz while I'm working the drive thru.

10% is way too high.

This logic is very flawed... There are plenty of regs winning 5bb at every stake (let's take out the specifics of 25b for this). You could say anyone at 200nl w 5bb moved up to 500, anyone at 500 w 5bb moved up to 1k, etc. The level of play is much lower but then the level of play required to win 5bb is also much lower. And the idea that the guys grinding out a living are automatically trash seems backwards. On average the regs who play professionally are better than those who play as a side gig, in my experience.

limited sample of 80k hands on the 100nl and 200nl pool, only 3 regs and 1 bot are winning >= 5bb