Flopped set…
Smallish local game.
Prize pool is £4.3k we’re down to 18 with 11 paid.
Blinds are 3k/6k/6k
I have c250k as does the villain in the hand. He’s new to me but friends tell me he’s loose and ‘stationy’. Regardless we are the two dominant stacks at this stage.
Villain limps utg+2, one more limper and it gets to me in hijack with 88.
I make it 27k, villain calls.
Flop 8h6hQc. Pot 75k
He checks, I bet 26k, he calls. All good so far? Maybe bigger?
Turn 8h6hQc2c Pot 127k
He checks, I bet 47k, he calls.
River 8h6hQc2c5c, Pot 221k
He checks….
Effective stack is c150k
We?
10 Replies
Just ship it? I mean if you're looking for a loose call you can bet like 70-80k I guess but by going all in it may seem more like you're trying to push him out of the pot with busted hearts, if he's loose he may just call you with a Q.
Pretty clear shove for about 2/3 pot. Probly go bigger on flop for starters to set up a smaller river shove of half pot or less. Flop is quite dynamic. Anything that hit this flop decently is gonna be inelastic so can bet more like 50-60% pot.
I like the flop bet size (I would typically just make it the same as the preflop bet size). The flop doesn't favor our range and probably favors Villain's range a bit more due to potential straights and flushes so I wouldn't make it 67% pot here because that would make it look like we smashed the flop.
The turn is an awkward spot. Normally I would bet about 90k but that would be close to 50% effective stack. I would actually probably just jam the turn because of the two flush draws and the original straight draws. It isn't likely to get called though it would look polarizing, but probably more than half the rivers will be draws that got there and we will either be beat or wouldn't be called if we jam the river.
As played on the river I probably check back because a bunch of draws got there. Also we block Q8 and 86 hands and 22 would not have called the flop bet much. I don't think Qx hands would call a river jam.
As played on the river I probably check back because a bunch of draws got there. Also we block Q8 and 86 hands and 22 would not have called the flop bet much. I don't think Qx hands would call a river jam.
A bunch of draws? The obvious front door flush missed and the straight is very unlikely unless it’s 97s. I guess a loose station is gonna float the flop with a bunch of back door club combos. Still, this pot is huge, he checked three times, we’re high in our value range, and he’s apparently a loose station. Checking back is missing a lot of value imo.
Bet bigger on the turn. Maybe bigger on the flop too since you unblock top pair and there are a lot of draws besides that that can continue.
I'd just shove now as played, or effectively shove.
A bunch of draws? The obvious front door flush missed and the straight is very unlikely unless it’s 97s. I guess a loose station is gonna float the flop with a bunch of back door club combos. Still, this pot is huge, he checked three times, we’re high in our value range, and he’s apparently a loose station. Checking back is missing a lot of value imo.
I missed the part about him being a loose station. So my turn jam might be a good choice.
I guess everyone is probably right about jamming the river. In all likelihood I probably wouldn't do it because even though he is a calling station he is also loose and I just don't like this spot.
Much bigger on turn, river feels like easy jam but if he flats our bigger turn bet he is going to have combo draws that got there sometimes.
Think we could make a case for if he calls pot / over bet on turn we can check back sometimes when checked too on river close to bubble. Idk.
79cc 74cc 34cc, 79hh, 74hh, 34hh.
?
Do we have the 8c?
Without it we definitely need to bet bigger on the turn. It's one more way we don't block the flush draw or combo draws. And our hand is so strong we probably have to pay off if the draw comes in. We have a big hand on a super drawy board and we unblock top pair, this is a perfect spot to be piling in money. I also like betting bigger on the flop.
