2024 ELECTION THREAD
The next presidential race will be here soon! Please see current Bovada odds. Thoughts?
Does anyone live close enough to rickroll to do a wellness check? WTF?!
Getting this thread back on track, 538 did a forecast model with Harris replacing Biden and their current forecast of the presidential race is as follows....
Meanwhile Trump has never been more popular. I wouldn't bet your house on that outcome..
[QUOTE=axios]
While Harris' popularity grew 13 percentage points in August to 47%, former President Trump's dipped 5 points to 41% as the two edge towards what's expected to be a close contest in November.[/QUOTE]
Sept. 3-4 Emerson College Favorable 47% 53% Unfavorable
Sept. 1-3 YouGov/The Economist Favorable 45% 54% Unfavorable
Aug. 30-Sept. 2 Data for Progress Favorable 44% 55% Unfavorable
Aug. 29-Sept. 1 YouGov Favorable 43% 54% Unfavorable
Aug. 28-30 TIPP Insights Favorable 45% 49% Unfavorable
sad!
Just more of "hurr durr both sides same" stuff. I find the "both sides same" people to generally be the least interesting on this forum. Always some variation of "neither are Bernie, so egro both are the same".
It's such a vacuous argument too. They find all the things where they are actually the same, i.e. all the positions on which most reasonable people agree, and then some magic happens and then that means they are the same in every resp
The two parties are close enough on Israel and just about every conflict this government engages in that I vote for neither in presidential elections. I don't think the two parties are the same, but they certainly don't differ enough where it matters most to me.
The two parties are close enough on Israel and just about every conflict this government engages in that I vote for neither in presidential elections. I don't think the two parties are the same, but they certainly don't differ enough where it matters most to me.
I guess if it doesn't matter enough to you that one party is led by pathological lying, authoritarian insurrectionist coup leader Donald Trump and the other isn't... well, you do you.
Sept. 3-4 Emerson College Favorable 47% 53% Unfavorable
Sept. 1-3 YouGov/The Economist Favorable 45% 54% Unfavorable
Aug. 30-Sept. 2 Data for Progress Favorable 44% 55% Unfavorable
Aug. 29-Sept. 1 YouGov Favorable 43% 54% Unfavorable
Aug. 28-30 TIPP Insights Favorable 45% 49% Unfavorable
sad!
Good luck with that.
No, I was literally just talking about him. For the most part I accept that the vast majority of people that think the election was stolen legitimately believe it because their critical thinking skills are horrible OR their prior probabilities are way off so they see the election being rigged as the default position that needs to be proven false. Either way for the vast majority on pretty much any issue it’s going to come down to epistemolo
American rules don't help tbh, it's like they are created on purpose to make people think someone wants to be able to cheat.
We all need ID to vote in Europe. Voting from home is less common, but even where it is (like in Germany) the vote has to arrive before the voting day closes.
Distance votes are counted together with normal in person votes, we deliver results within 24h, very often in just a bunch of hours.
I am not saying that people will completely stop claiming the process is rigged if the rules become normal, if they lose with small margins the idea of rigging will still exist (see Berlusconi claiming that in 2006, but he had lost by 0.07%).
But it would be far harder to create the suspicion of electoral fraud if very normal rules , like in basically all other first world countries, existed.
The two parties are close enough on Israel and just about every conflict this government engages in that I vote for neither in presidential elections. I don't think the two parties are the same, but they certainly don't differ enough where it matters most to me.
The only issue you care about is foreign policy? You don’t care about abortion, trans issues, labor issues, climate change, education, the massive deportation that Trump promises? You don’t care about the fact that Trump tried to steal an election and what he might do if he gets back into power?
Even if you care about foreign policy, you don’t care about Trump supporting autocrats and far right wingers in Turkey, Hungary, France, and Italy, as well as likely others? You don’t care about Trump ramping up drone strikes to record levels? Assassinating an Iranian general and taking us out of the Iran deal? Recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel in an unprecedented move that caused mounting tension?
I just don’t see how anyone can isolate on just one issue that they themselves think both parties are the same on. Especially since they’re not the same. Trump proposed a plan that would codify both settlements and a partial annexation of current internationally recognized Palestinian territory. I’m pretty pro-Israel for a Westerner, and I definitely think the plan goes too far.
Lastly an election isn’t about who you are in love with. You should vote strategically. By not voting for Kamala you are taking a chance that you will be frozen out of future policy debates and Dems will go even more to the right, seeing that they can win without you. Or if they lose they might get angry at the left and blame them for the loss as they did in 2016.
Anyway vote for who you want but that’s how I feel.
Foreign policy is very different between Dems and republicans, at least for Ukraine
Just more of "hurr durr both sides same" stuff. I find the "both sides same" people to generally be the least interesting on this forum. Always some variation of "neither are Bernie, so egro both are the same".
It's such a vacuous argument too. They find all the things where they are actually the same, i.e. all the positions on which most reasonable people agree, and then some magic happens and then that means they are the same in every resp
Yeah, it's a very tedious form of trolling. There is always some ludicrous, fine tuned line that makes no sense (Hilary= Trump.... but uh yeah for some reason Sanders is not simply equal to both) and any differences on abortion, healthcare Jan 6 are just hand waved away.
American rules don't help tbh, it's like they are created on purpose to make people think someone wants to be able to cheat.
We all need ID to vote in Europe. Voting from home is less common, but even where it is (like in Germany) the vote has to arrive before the voting day closes.
Distance votes are counted together with normal in person votes, we deliver results within 24h, very often in just a bunch of hours.
I am not saying that people w
Ok sure, but you guys also don’t have a hugely multicultural society where voter requirements were widely used to discriminate, so obviously the Voter ID thing isn’t going to be as popular here. Also states tend to do counts of mail in ballots on election day for some reason.
I’m not in principle against voter ID (many states have some form of it) but I want to see some common sense reforms as well like making election day either a holiday or fall on a weekend or give people time off at work to vote. We can also switch our voting method to electronic voting machines with a voter audit slip. We can increase the number of polling locations in areas with a high population density.
I mean sure institute voter ID, but you also have to make sure there’s adequate access to the voter ID and that it’s free for people to get it.
Yes ofc voter ID has to be issued for free by the government.
But afaik there are places where a distance vote is valid if SENT before the time cutoff for the elections, that's just insane. Iirc some places in california took 3 weeks to give results in 2020 (???).
Yeah, it's a very tedious form of trolling. There is always some ludicrous, fine tuned line that makes no sense (Hilary= Trump.... but uh yeah for some reason Sanders is not simply equal to both) and any differences on abortion, healthcare Jan 6 are just hand waved away.
hilldawg would have planned it better and acted on the 5th ldo
I'd probably vote Kamala in a swing state.
The only issue you care about is foreign policy? You don’t care about abortion, trans issues, labor issues, climate change, education, the massive deportation that Trump promises? You don’t care about the fact that Trump tried to steal an election and what he might do if he gets back into power?
Even if you care about foreign policy, you don’t care about Trump supporting autocrats and far right wingers in Turkey, Hungary, F
I didn't say that foreign policy is the only issue I care about. You quoted the post where I clearly didn't say that. I said it matters most to me.
Again, I'm in Illinois. There's no strategic vote one way or the other.
In a swing state, I'd probably vote Kamala without illusion. I don't live in a swing state, though. I never have, so I've never had to vote for someone who puts the interests of Israel over the interests of the U.S. Or even think about it much.
National security is hardly a single issue. It greatly affects the economy, and the fundamental role of the president is to keep us safe from enemies. U.S. aggression and allegiances make us less safe.
As for voting out of love. I've never voted for someone wholly agreeing with them. I vote for those who align more than others with my values. I've voted for Bernie Sanders and Dennis Kucinich in primaries. I've voted for Ron Paul twice. I think all three are loony in their own ways but American foreign policy is batshit crazy and has been for the better part of 60-70 years; we're just used to it, so we think it's normal and therefore O.K. and not a big deal. In generals, though, I've never voted Democrat or Republican for president. It's completely inconsequential.
Ok sure, but you guys also don’t have a hugely multicultural society where voter requirements were widely used to discriminate, so obviously the Voter ID thing isn’t going to be as popular here. Also states tend to do counts of mail in ballots on election day for some reason.
I’m not in principle against voter ID (many states have some form of it) but I want to see some common sense reforms as well like making election day either a holiday o
I'm against voter ID, but this is about as fair as it could get.
The fact remains, though, that the idea behind the 24th Amendment is that prerequisites should not prohibit votes from adult citizens. FWIW, I'm against all felon disenfranchisement.
That’s the paradox of voting though. If everyone that prefers the Democratic nominee voted in such a way it in a blue state, it wouldn’t be a blue state anymore.
Fair enough though I can see that you think I might have mischaracterized your position and apologize if I did so
That’s the paradox of voting though. If everyone that prefers the Democratic nominee voted in such a way it in a blue state, it wouldn’t be a blue state anymore.
Fair enough though I can see that you think I might have mischaracterized your position and apologize if I did so
But significantly most people who would prefer a Democratic (or Republican) nominee disagree with me on just about everything to a significant degree, so this hypothetical is about as impactful as my vote no matter how I choose to make it.
You mischaracterized it by saying I'm a single-issue voter. I clarified that (a) I'm not, but also (b) that foreign policy crosses so many disciplines, it can't be characterized as a single issue like guns are, for example.
I don't think there are many issues in our society that just exist in a vacuum, for that matter. Civil liberties and the economy all have very slippery slopes that aren't purely academic. When we're at war, civil liberties are trampled upon so the values on which we base our union loses legitimacy, we inflate the currency without investment in anything but destruction, we create more enemies than we need to have putting a larger target on our back which stretches resources even more thinly to now protect us from the threats that didn't exist before said war. And said war is never really won (we often leave battegrounds worse than when we entered them), so we did all of that for nothing. And when we fight proxy wars or fund belligerent conflicts, we're just performing milder versions of actually being at war, directly.
"Look, one of the things I love about Donald Trump -- and I never knew John McCain, but I suspect that one of the things that I would have loved about John McCain is that they didn't let their personal grievances get in the way of serving the country," Vance said
^^Hey Luciom, can you remind me again how smart JD Vance is? Above, same, or below the average MAGA chode?
^^Hey Luciom, can you remind me again how smart JD Vance is? Above, same, or below the average MAGA chode?
Necessarily much smarter than the median college educated white, just because he got admitted into Yale law as a white man, and you know how that's literally impossible without at least two sigma better than median IQ
Necessarily much smarter than the median college educated white, just because he got admitted into Yale law as a white man, and you know how that's literally impossible without at least two sigma better than median IQ
So how do you explain him saying such stupid things? Just plain old Republican compulsive lying?
