2024 Fantasy Football Thread
Welcome to the 2024 fantasy season, where I'm officially addicted to best ball. I've been drafting since the end of January. Through 95 drafts, my exposures are below. The player order is based on current ADP. Some of these ADPs have been quite fluid over the last 3 months, with FAs and rookies moving the most. Most of my exposures are structurally driven, rather than player take driven. Especially at this point in the game, pre-draft.
But there are some players I simply couldn't avoid going heavy on, like McBride and Andrews in the 5th round. I'm actually quite heavy all of the top TEs, minus LaPorta and Kincaid. I also tried to make sure I had at least 1 TE by the end of round 8, with Ferguson being the last of the group.
Also took approaches like attacking Nabers and Odunze harder than MHJ, at their relative prices.
What do we like and not like?
Rookie season is also upon us. Redraft is still 3.5 months away from heating up, but there will be rookie drafts, dynasty startups, and best ball drafts leading up until then.
Good luck to all, and may injuries and variance be kind.
This is a very good point. I was mainly a zero or hero RB drafter this year and waited on RBs after round 8 while focusing on TE's and QB's 5-7
I do have a 18% Likley share (only 60 drafts though) which could pay off but the problem is I was always tapping Kincaid, Pitts etc in the 5th over the RB's so if Likley does continue to have a large TGT share then I'm not going to benefit from it that much
There has been a lot of discourse on the expensive TEs after week 1, and justifiably so. I still think mixing in all of them on most rosters was good process. I'm interested to see how it plays out.
Gretch had a point that I think I agree with, which was that the fact that all TEs fell flat on their face is a good thing for elite te bc the whole premise was that only 8 guys + 3 fringier guys (Njoku, Ferguson, bowers) had upside and the back end guys sucked
Obviously it wasn’t the best week for elite te, but I’m still very bullish especially on McBride, Laporta, Kittle, Andrews
A little scared on Pitts bc of cousins and a little worried Rashee is getting a lot of the Kelce targets now (not worried though bc Rashee is my most owned wr in best ball and managed)
Also last year the w1 te leaders are hilarious to see so back to my earlier point that it’s a long season and w1 is not an indicator of much
Yup, Likely was the only late round TE pick to have actual meaningful production. Which again, would you rather be relying on the top TEs to do better than w1 or the late round TEs to do better than w1?
Sam Sherman had a nice post responding to Gretch. And then Madison Parkhill had a nice post responding to Sam.
Some very interesting discourse to think through. It's worth the read.
I mean, Zeke played 51% of the snaps and Dowdle 44% lol. Zeke with 12 opportunities and Dowdle with 9. There was only 1 goal line opportunity, and that went to Zeke, but that doesn't mean Dowdle won't have his own. They're both JAGs, which, imo, is kind of the point. I am overweight on both.
I think Moss and Brown will both have some good weeks, which at their prices is perfectly fine. There is no one else that matters in this backfie
I don't disagree with your take on this. I'm more making fun of the YouTube influencers who were smashing Rico and Chase Brown in drafts. I have a percentage of both these guy's but I never understood how smart these people thought the were planting their flags on these guys.
Best ball is a really tough balance of price, opportunity cost, profile bets, and projectable volume bets. I find the game theory fascinating.
Week one part two.
1) I knew when JK Dobbins was going pick 175 he was not only a bargain but possibly a league winner. He came into the year healthy. The Chargers didn't bring anybody else in at RB of significance. They didn't use a high pick on a RB. The Chargers massively upgraded their line. This should have been the easiest pick ever. Maybe it doesn't last but if it does he will be a league winner. The hive mind tends to live in the past and is slow to acting on new information. I was on this early but didn't act on it as much as I should have.
2) Xavier Worthy's week one is a mirage. If he didn't score on that busted coverage people would be worried. I think he will be great later in the year but I think there will be dud games for him in the early going. I was not impressed by film I saw of him in the preseason regarding his route running.
3) Tyreek Hill. Is it time to worry about this guy's temperament and off field antics? I have very little Tyreek because I only got pick 3 maybe 5 times this year. I am not rooting for this jerk.
Best ball is a really tough balance of price, opportunity cost, profile bets, and projectable volume bets. I find the game theory fascinating.
I feel like I will be significantly more prepared next year. This was the first time I did "mass" drafting so I kind of blindly followed the "experts" for most of the draft season. I learned a ton regarding best ball theory from these draft streams. I definitely did not feel comfortable on some of the player takes. I'm slowly but surely evolving in DFS as well. I've decided not to play so much in the big tournaments. It might be better to max out the power ball. I'm loving and succeeding in the small single entry tournaments and the Hundo tournaments on Draft Kings.
Re Worthy: it was obviously more pts than you’d expect bc of the tds, but he played over 70% of snaps which is extremely bullish. Rashee wasn’t trusted to run 70% of snaps until much later in the season
Week one part two.
3) Tyreek Hill. Is it time to worry about this guy's temperament and off field antics? I have very little Tyreek because I only got pick 3 maybe 5 times this year. I am not rooting for this jerk.
What exactly are you talking about? If it’s the speeding ticket and physical abuse by the cops, why tf would we be worried about Reek?
Yup, Likely was the only late round TE pick to have actual meaningful production. Which again, would you rather be relying on the top TEs to do better than w1 or the late round TEs to do better than w1?
Sam Sherman had a nice post responding to Gretch. And then Madison Parkhill had a nice post responding to Sam.
Some very interesting discourse to think through. It's worth the read.
In best ball there are only a handful of TE's who have the ability to put up 20-30 points. They may not be as good as previous elite TE's but if they can have a few spike weeks throughout the season and spike it up in the fantasy playoffs they will be well worth the price. When I wasn't able to get a top ten guy I would reach for Likely thinking he was the only one left who could put up numbers like these in the right situation. Bowers was another guy who I thought was an easy pick.
What exactly are you talking about? If it’s the speeding ticket and physical abuse by the cops, why tf would we be worried about Reek?
Tyreek has had many run in with the law. He kicked his pregnant wife in the stomach. He got into a scuffle on a boat dock. He lipped off to cops the other day and found out. It's only a matter of time before his next temper tantrum.
Re Worthy: it was obviously more pts than you’d expect bc of the tds, but he played over 70% of snaps which is extremely bullish. Rashee wasn’t trusted to run 70% of snaps until much later in the season
I'm happy to have a ton of Worthy. I can see him struggle early on especially when Hollywood comes back. He is still a rookie. Rashee wasn't a first round pick. The Chiefs made a significant move up to get Worthy, they obviously had plans for him early on.
Week one part two.
1) I knew when JK Dobbins was going pick 175 he was not only a bargain but possibly a league winner. He came into the year healthy. The Chargers didn't bring anybody else in at RB of significance. They didn't use a high pick on a RB. The Chargers massively upgraded their line. This should have been the easiest pick ever. Maybe it doesn't last but if it does he will be a league winner. The hive mind tends to live in the pa
1. Great RB but has now played 25 games in 4 seasons, going on his 5th now. If he does finally stay healthy he is a steal and league winner but history shows this is unlikely to be the case so I do feel his ADP is not necessarily correct justified
2. Maybe and as a Cheifs fan that has got overhyped by our WR picks the past few years and wasn't in on Worhty this year cause of it I'm gutted cause I I think we have a star. Yeh He'll give you some weeks with 2pts this year but man I see a future Hill here.
3. The time to worry about his antics was 4 years ago. He is who he is and in Scotland we'd call him a total **** but for fantasy he has the potential to be the number 1 player outside of QBs
I still fully believe that Chase takes over this backfield. This isn't because I truly belive in his talent but more cause Moss is one of those players I irrationally dislike and I need Chase to be the RB1 cause I did fall for the hype hard
We all hate Moss but he did actually look like a RB last year but I'm with you to continue and hate on him.
Week one part two.
1) I knew when JK Dobbins was going pick 175 he was not only a bargain but possibly a league winner. He came into the year healthy. The Chargers didn't bring anybody else in at RB of significance. They didn't use a high pick on a RB. The Chargers massively upgraded their line. This should have been the easiest pick ever. Maybe it doesn't last but if it does he will be a league winner. The hive mind tends to live in the pa
Agree with everything you wrote here but where are you getting pick 175? FantasyPros shows his ADP was 130 and I used pick 90 simply to ensure he was on my team. RBs on the board when Dobbins went were Spears, Ford, Singletary, Brooks, Corum, Ekeler, Warren, Chubb. Hard to find anybody on that list to get excited about.
Best ball. JK had reached the 130s by the time the season started, but he was in the 160s, 170s, 180s, etc. for most of drafting season. Once we got signal that he was healthy, going to make the roster, and be apart of the Chargers's plans this year, he continued to move up.
Thanks, that makes sense. I keep forgetting most of the people in this thread did early best ball drafts.
No problem. I faded him pretty hard, especially since the Chargers only gave him $50k guaranteed. But once I saw the signal, I drafted him all the way up the board and ended up even with the field.
I was never in on Gus. I was overweight Vidal, so hopefully he can get involved as the season goes along.
I’m rooting for JK to stay healthy. He’s a fun player. Also have him on a couple of redraft teams.
could MIA's Jeff Wilson, Jr. perform at a RB1/RB2 level tmr night w all the RB injury news coming out of Dolphins' camp?
I'm rooting for Dobbins too. I wish BAL had kept him as depth, whenever he hit the field for us he was electric.
But I think it's a mirage. Big day but mainly on the back of 2 huge runs, both of which he got chased down on. His top end speed is completely gone, most backs would have housed both of those runs he had.
could MIA's Jeff Wilson, Jr. perform at a RB1/RB2 level tmr night w all the RB injury news coming out of Dolphins' camp?
If Achane is out, I think he’s close to a must start. Wright would get some run, but I bet Wilson would still see 60-70%+ snaps.
If Achane plays, he’s an upside RB2/3, hoping for a TD or 2 from the green zone.
I'm rooting for Dobbins too. I wish BAL had kept him as depth, whenever he hit the field for us he was electric.
But I think it's a mirage. Big day but mainly on the back of 2 huge runs, both of which he got chased down on. His top end speed is completely gone, most backs would have housed both of those runs he had.
I think he still has the top end speed. He hit 19.9 MPH, which was the second or third highest of the week. He just didn’t sustain it. He made a comment about how he still needed to get in better game shape haha.
He should look pretty good again this week. Pristine matchup.
I'm rooting for Dobbins too. I wish BAL had kept him as depth, whenever he hit the field for us he was electric.
But I think it's a mirage. Big day but mainly on the back of 2 huge runs, both of which he got chased down on. His top end speed is completely gone, most backs would have housed both of those runs he had.
JK had the fastest RB run of the week.
I think he still has the top end speed. He hit 19.9 MPH, which was the second or third highest of the week. He just didn’t sustain it. He made a comment about how he still needed to get in better game shape haha.
He should look pretty good again this week. Pristine matchup.
JK had the fastest RB run of the week.
Fair. I'm amazed that run was the fastest of the week. I did try to look for Next Gen Stats of his for the game but they weren't posted, at least not that I could find.
But he hits that speed then immediately pulls up and gets chased down. Can't help but think he's still impacted.
1:05 of this video, if the timestamp doesn't work:
