2024 Fantasy Football Thread

Aiyuk's problem isn't talent. It's that this is a run-first offense with other weapons to throw to.

It was in reference to Deebo now being out for weeks. Aiyuk is now a hot commodity.

Maybe 3 on each.

I won one game on the London score. Barkley is like an honorary member of my team.

Anyone think Carson Steele is worth the #1 waiver position? I have been holding it for an impact player (which I know may never come). I don't necessarily need a RB but figure it will have trade value should he become the confirmed starter.

I do not think he’s worth it

I just cant see Andy riding a rookie UDFA and guy is not a pass catcher. Best case he gets what? 8-10 carries a game? Hard to see trade value in that and more likely you are burning #1ww pick for a guy you are dropping in a few weeks.

Yeah, and the fact they worked out Hunt when Pacheco's injury isn't season ending tells you what they think about the current group too. It will be an annoying committee where Perine likely has the highest weekly upside but also has a low single digit floor.

Would you trade Zay Flowers + Pollard for Gibbs in .5 ppr (I’d be getting Gibbs)

I’m trying to figure out an offer to a team that has averaged 70 pts per game in .5ppr and has Josh Palmer as their wr 1

I have a strong wr room, but my rb room is pretty good too (Achane, Walker, Pollard)

WRs are Chase, Nico, Rice, London, Flowers, Puka, AD

Who was fading JJ? He is exactly what I thought he would be. He'll have spike weeks and he'll have underwhelming games. I was correct in saying he should have been behind Bijan and Breece the whole draft season. I still ended up with 7% which sounds about right. Darnold is playing very well which is giving him a boost.

He has quietly looked decent. The hive mind will be slow to give him credit so take advantage.

So far in .5 PPR, he has 1.5 points less than Breece and 7.4 points more than Bijan. I'm not sure how you can declare above with certainty at this point. And that's in two games where the Vikings were in complete control the whole way. What happens when his targets increase from 7 to 10+ in certain game environments?

Braelon looking good isn't great news for Breece, either. Breece will still get the volume touches both on the ground and in the passing game, but Braelon could cap the TD upside.

QJ's first TD against Horn was pretty nice, as he actually won that route. But Horn also played it terribly. His second TD, he was wide open on busted coverage. I still thought he looked very average against the worst defense in the league. His w1 production was subpar against an actual defense.

He'll probably end up being a fine best ball pick, especially at his price, since people were worried about him running the routes. He's mostly been doing that. I still don't want any part of him in managed.

That's a tough decision, especially with the Flowers volume so far. I might sit on the depth for now and then try to consolidate later in the season.

Saw a stat somewhere Johnston first read target% is top 5 so he now has my interest. That makes him very gamble worthy.

Palmer for Johnston 25%
Lawrence for Carr 10%
B Allen for McLaughlin 6 %

Goff/Lawrence
Hall/Dobbins/Moss/Javonte/Zeke/McLaughlin/Corum
Collins/Rice/Harrison/Palmer
Kincaid
Seattle
Bass

Given the trash in the zero RB target area this year, getting a Breece or Bijan is more important than getting Jefferson in the draft. We haven't come close to seeing the best of Bijan. As Cousins gets back into the groove we will see monster Bijan games. You can say the same for Breece. As Jefferson's targets increase so will Darnolds turnovers increase.

Found it - near as I can tell only one guy from this list is available for free

Leaders in first-read target share through 2 weeks (per
@FantasyPtsData
):

Cooper Kupp - 52%
Malik Nabers - 50%
QUENTIN JOHNSTON - 39%
Justin Jefferson - 38%
Davante Adams - 38%
AJ Brown - 37%
Keenan Allen - 35%
Garrett Wilson - 35%

You must not have actually been drafting to your opinion bc I’m pretty sure it’s impossible to have 7% Jefferson if you were drafting him 8th or later. Hence why I assumed you were fading him.

Also Jefferson has been v good so far.

Start to put Keaton Mitchell on your radars for redraft leagues. It sounds like his rehab from ACL is going well. He has two more weeks on IR. sneak him onto your rosters soon while no one is thinking about him. He is very Achane like. The Ravens need some explosiveness from their back field.

It’s week 2? I don’t think you can say that the 0 rb strategy has failed given the entire strategy is predicated on rbs being volatile and being able to get elite production later in the draft and later in the season…

I’m not trying to be rude here, but I’m getting the feeling that you maybe are not fully understanding how you win at best ball.

First of all - weeks 1-14 equal only 25% of the season combined, so back weighted production is highly critical.

You also are trying to hit the nuts. That means you want to take a wide portfolio of players with ceiling outcomes. That strategy obviously yields a lot of duds. You’re expecting most of your teams to fail that’s implicit…

With the passing offense numbers so far, I'd argue the exact opposite. The elite WRs are even more valuable than we thought. There just aren't many of them. If we were drafting best ball today with the current info, I think I'd take JJ 1.02 behind CeeDee. Darnold, that offense, and that team have far outperformed expectations so far.

I don't see why I should care about Darnold's turnovers? Darnold's turnovers increasing would actually be good for JJ and the passing offense. That means they are likely passing over expectation.

Why do you keep focusing on the zero RB targets that have failed so far rather than the ones who have succeeded? Zero RB target Kamara in the 7th is leading the entire position at scoring. Mondre, BRob, Pollard, Dobbins, Charb, Conner, Mason, etc. have all scored well at the position. Even Cook and Mixon are technically in the Zero RB range as round 5/6 picks.

Jamo and Shaheed are the only WRs doing well from the zero RB target area you keep referencing.

And the thing about zero RB is that it improves as the season goes on as more injuries happen. Vacated touches in the backfield due to injury are so much more valuable than vacated targets at WR due to injury.

Of the top 20 scoring WRs so far in .5 PPR, 17 were taken in the top 5 rounds. Of the top 20 scoring RBs so far in .5 PPR, 9 were taken in the top 5 rounds. And that's being generous to Mixon and Cook who regularly went in the 6th.

I drafted him a couple times at 6 early on just to get some exposure. Then I put him behind Breece and Bijan. I eventually took him a few more times at 7 and 8 after Breece and Bijan were gone again to bring back up my exposure.

Jefferson is a great player. Darnold has exceeded expectations up to this point. I do feel he will turn back into a pumpkin at some point. I do think 0'connel will limit his attempts when he can throughout the year. He's an absolutely fine pick for best ball. I do think there will be games where he leaves you wanting more in redraft. I'll play him a ton in DFS if I think he will be in a competitive game or a game where they are playing from behind.

I realized later in the draft season that going hero RB was the way to go. I had the feeling that many of the zero RB targets we were feeling warm and fuzzy about in rounds 7-11 were gonna end up being trash. This is why I was so big on Bijan and Breece.

I get that, but he isn't gonna become a 12-15-target monster overnight. The Niners just don't play that way.

I agree with most of what you are saying. I'm clearly more bullish on Bijan and Breece ROS than you are. With CMC out and Tua out I can't argue with wanting to take Jefferson 1.02. I'll probably play JJ a lot in DFS before the wheels come off for Darnold.

Good point regarding the trash at WR in the zero RB zone. I still loaded up at WR early. I took a ton of Jamo so I'm feeling alright. I grabbed a lot of TE's and QB's in this zone.

I disagree that Darnold turning the ball over is good for Jefferson. A turnover kills the drive and gives the ball to the other team. That can't be good.

Just to be clear, I think Jefferson is an amazing talent. I think he is gonna have a solid year. My thesis regarding my "soft fade" is that I thought his QB was gonna be a significant downgrade. If Darnold ends up playing great all year then I was wrong. I just have the feeling that the wheels will fall off at some point. Also, we are arguing about just a few spots in draft order. I had Jefferson at pick 8 initially. I would now put ARSB and Chase behind him. I still would take Breece and Bijan over him.

I don't think 0 RB has failed. I think we were overly confident with many of the zero RB targets.