2024 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

100 percent looks weak that Trump has said no to a second debate after losing this debate

What he should have done is immediately challenged her to a rematch on Fox or a similar right wing network if he doesn't actually want to debate again just try and set terms that she wouldn't accept that way it's more ambiguous who is backing out when he says let's debate on fox and she says let's debate on CNN or whatever and they don't come to an agreement

Saying I won the debate gg no rematch when he clearly lost the debate is idiotic strategically but then this is from a guy who is idiotic strategically because he can't stay on message to drive Harris's negatives up and spent the debate rambling about they're eating the cats and dogs etc

Re Vivek, if anyone wants him to be the R nominee next cycle I'm happy to take field although no point really betting now we can just do it when the new cycle starts

He does not have a voter base beyond high info non racist conservative tech/podcast bros. It is not a big enough demographic to win the nomination when as previously stated he is a short and obviously brown indian man with a funny name.

I'm sure he can convert to Christianity in time for his next run publicly if he hasn't already but it doesn't matter. A brown man with a funny name is not winning the Republican nomination for the same reason Tim Scott had a 0 percent chance to win the Republican nomination this time as a dark black man. The only minority that would have any chance to win the R nomination is a white passing Hispanic or maybe a mixed race black or islander who is white passing like The Rock. It doesn't matter how good a candidate is someone with Wesley Snipes or Viveks skin tone is not going going to be Republican nominee any time soon due to racism, end of story.

You are focusing so much on the skin color and not the religion. Tim Scott got more votes than he probably should have. He is a bad candidate.

Herman Cain was leading the Republican primary in 2011. I agree there are more racists in the Republican Party than the Democrat Party but I think you are exaggerating the percentage for Republicans.

Vivek will get crushed with the Evangelical right but that part of the party is pandered to by nearly every candidate that it will be a fragmented vote share if there are > 4 candidates in the primary, which there should be.

Plus, this is under the assumption that Kamala wins and her presidency is a disaster, which it likely would be. I think this would actually be good long-term for Republicans as it will expand their base. And those former Democrats would be very open to someone like Vivek.

Entirely possible I am being naïve. I think he would be great for the country.

Herman Cain was never a serious candidate. He polled at 27% for a while early in in a many candidate race at no point was he anywhere close to the 50% needed in a 2 person race. He was never going to win any more than Tim Scott or Vivek were going to win this cycle.

No black or brown (unless you count Marco Rubio white passing hispanic as brown) person is going to get 50% in a Republican primary in 2024. Maybe, MAYBE if Trump specifically endorsed them as his successor. The end.

Nikki Haley is white passing Indian I guess someone like that could win maybe, with the right Trump-level endorsements, but not with Vivek's name and skin tone.

Also a smooth talking tech/cryptobro type will be popular with 2p2 type conservatives but not with the Republican electorate as a whole and as you said, wrong religion.

I do think he could take a chunk of the vote and be a final 2 candidate but if it gets down to a h2h matchup vs a white christian, he is drawing dead

I guess Trump really tweeted (on his Truth Social clone of Twitter) "I HATE TAYLOR SWIFT." What a ****ing moron. Not only does it underscore how juvenile and petty and hateful he is, and confirm that the assassination attempt has not changed him for the better, it offends tens of millions of fans of the most popular performer in America. Is he going to tweet "I HATE THE POPE" next? Holy ****. Imagine typing that out and deciding to post it. I seriously think this is worth millions of votes. I don't know what the Venn diagram of [people likely to vote for Trump] and [Taylor Swift fans] looks like, but I'm sure there's some overlap there, just given the enormity of the numbers involved. Even if it's just teen girls browbeating their dads into not voting for Trump and demanding to see the ballot before it's mailed in.

I realize there's also news today of another assassination attempt on Trump (at his golf course). To me, that's not nearly as significant as this self-sabotaging tweet.

you gotta understand he lives in a bubble which is an echo chamber of sycophants and rabid supporters, he probably hear's people nonstop tell him how much this will hurt taylor's career that she endorsed kamala and he decided to steam chase

Lol you have to laugh at trumps incompetence with the swift tweet. The right move is to ignore it but he goes on an all caps social media I hate taylor to keep it in the news longer.

Attempted assassinations up to 2 now it's crazy the random mentally ill young dude came closer than a combat vet. Presumably this guy has some mental issues too seems like he hated trump whereas the first guy did it for notoriety or something

Price about the same I guess trumps Taylor own goal roughly cancels out any sympathy but given this attempt didn't come close doubt it moves the needle if the first one that nearly got him didn't

I assume his trial will be after the election since he lived so won't be that big a deal as the election will be over

Saw that the attempted assassin posted he had voted for Trump in 2016 but had since come to hate him

Also read that apparently the only shots fired were by the secret service because the dude was spotted trying to set up to take a shot at trump

Turns out Routh was a registered Republican so 2 out of 2 potential trump assassins were Republicans now

Was in the no longer a Trump supporter camp though, history of mental illness. Flew in from Hawaii and bought himself the gun and armor to take a shot at Trump but failed miserably

Guy seems all over the place ideologically, Republican but pro NATO and Ukraine and anti Trump etc and was a veteran with mental health issues

just an fyi due to primary voting rules, it's not uncommon in the usa for people to register for the other party just to cast spite votes for the weakest candidate/lesser evil in the primaries

i personally know a lot of people who've done this and many don't bother to switch back because they'll just do it again anyway next election cycle

the kind of person who wants to take a shot at trump is the same kind of person who will cast a spite vote against him in a primary

not saying that's the case though, just that it's possible

So was Reagan.

If being right-wing now means being pro-Kremlin they can't have a chance in this.

Yeah I mean until 2012 Republicans were sane on Russia but Trump has somewhat flipped that most conservatives I know are now pro Russia which is a ****ing insane sentence considering one of Reagan's biggest accomplishments was winning the cold war.

The world will be a much better place when Trump is out of politics if it makes conservatives pro NATO again like I don't agree with Lindsey Graham on much but you have to at least be pro western geopolitical interests surely to be qualified to be President and it's not something I'd have worried about with Romney or McCain or even Bush 1 and 2 and Reagan etc

fwiw my senior thesis in college was that aside from single issue stuff like abortion, bush was more liberal in the rest of his policies than his democratic predecessors and if you looked at a list of the bills he signed and didn't know anything else you'd have assumed it was a democrat in office

Most Republicans and Trump are pro end this stupid war with Ukraine. Not pro Russia and we would like to have our government quit funneling 100s of billions of dollars for a war we're not involved with and quit having Ukrainians and Russians dying for nothing.

Notice how none of this happened under Trump. It happened under Obama and Biden's watch. But yeah the world would be better off without Trump in politics. The dude is an American legend and the truest breath of fresh air that politics has to offer. And Romney and McCain lost and are losers. We decided in 2016 that we want nothing to do with them anymore as the best that the Republican party has to offer. It's the Trump party moving forward.

Russians are dying for no reason in Ukraine but that's because they are the invading country they can stop the war at any time by leaving Ukraine and stopping their war of aggression. They are literally the aggressors and can leave at any time and go home.

Ukrainians are dying to defend their home from an invading force and you are ridiculously naive if you think that sending America's outdated military equipment to them is a bad thing, Russia winning in Ukraine is a bad thing and without foreign aid that's what happens and do you think Putin will stop there? No, he wants the Soviet Union back so he will move onto invading Moldova or whatever the next country on the list is and the cycle continues. You might think this is not America's problem but you are painfully naive about how geopolitics works if you think that.

Trumps position is worsening by the day, polling showing him down 6 percent coming out, it's still too far out to know but we are getting pretty close to D-day for Trump if he doesn't turn the narrative around in the next two or three weeks it'll be time to start buying Harris while the price is still -111 or so

Not involved yet but getting closer to considering it

His incompetence and lack of discipline on the campaign trail is hurting him badly. You barely even hear about Kamala being a hypocritical malicious prosecutor or sleeping with her much older boss for promotions etc which is what the message should have been none of this Kamala is a Marxist and is she black and they are eating the dogs nonsense

yeah the people who blame the killing on USA or Ukrainians is just lolcats

sure you can definitely say that the USA + Ukraine began a course of events that could have eventually led to this happening

but that doesn't just excuse away an invasion nor mean that Ukrainians forfeit the rights to defend themselves from becoming annexed into Russia

I don’t disagree with Russia’s invasion and both sides are at fault. All I’m saying is that the current administration is so bad that Putin had zero fear to proceed as he has. This war needs to end and just expecting Russia to do the right thing is a weak leadership position. Again Putin didn’t dare pull this under Trump.

Yeah his polling isn’t the best at the moment, but I’ve personally never been polled nor do I know a soul who has. Not sure who comprises these polls but I guess we’ll see what happens.

Expecting Russia to do the right thing is insane

Both sides are not at fault Russia is at fault. they will only stop if they are stopped by force and military failure.

If Trump was in power he would have simply cut all aid to Ukraine and made it easier for Putin and Russia's invasion to be successful. Acting like this wouldn't have happened if Trump was in office when Trump is more pro Russia than Biden is is insane and unrealistic.

Also Ukraine won't just surrender if Trump pulls aide just Europe will continue arming them but they will struggle more and suffer more casualties probably

Side note but with two attempts on Trump's life I don't think the prices on Walz and Vance are all that terrible

I don't think Vance can win but it'd be to trade out at flip if Trump got assassinated, Walz would be a hedge on if anything happened to Harris but he seems reasonably electable in a general.

If I do take Harris will hedge with Walz

Trump had 4 years to do what you’re claiming. If Trump was in charge this war probably never happens in the first place. You can claim whatever you want about what you beleive Russia would have done, but all evidence points to the facts that Putin did nothing against Ukraine or any country under Trump. They did under Obama and Biden. Anything else you posted is just your personal speculations and biases.

I’m just going by 4 years of his presidency is all when none of this current climate happened is all, vs your analysis of speculating that this war would have started in the first place or what Trump’s hypothetical response would have been.

Putin wanted Trump to win in 2016 in 2020 and again in 2024

You might want to think about why that is, because Trumps anti NATO anti Ukraine stances etc tend to align with Russia's geopolitical goals

And that's assuming Trump isn't compromised by Putin

Enough politarding but I think it's fair to say Harris is a solid -150 or so up 2.9 in the current polling and trending up although still too far from the election for it to be conclusive in any way and still within the margin of error

Bit surprised market still only has her a tiny fav although I guess trump did over perform polling in 2016

Well that’s interesting news Swoop since he didn’t once have the balls to invade Ukraine under Trump but immediately did so without a care in the world under Biden/Kammie-La. One would figure that Putin would feel free reign to do whatever he wanted under one of those regimes. I don’t see any evidence of it pointing to Trump vs the current regime as to whom he did it under. If his goal of the old Soviet Union was his goal you’d figure Trump in 2016 was his dream come true. Instead it was under Biden/Kammie-La.

Something Swoop is missing is the Biden admin was intentionally antagonistic against Russia.

Flirting with the idea of adding Ukraine to NATO was a calculated move by Blinken. They wanted Russia to invade Ukraine. If they didn't, then they handled it about as poorly as possible.

Wonder if Mark Robinson just flipped NC blue. Be interesting to see the polls there is a week or so.