2024 ELECTION THREAD
The next presidential race will be here soon! Please see current Bovada odds. Thoughts?
I think presidents are overrated in relation to the economy, a sample size of a half a dozen doesn't tell much. But a super shitty prez could obv tank the market - but Trump didn't even do that.
GOP policies under MAGA admin created a huge amount of debt and the inflation situation Biden corrected.
When the president hands out billions unchecked to any fraudulent company and sends checks personally endorsed to every citizen, that's the president directly messing with the economy.
Also, when the president and his cultists force through a tax cut that isn't budgeted for, that messes with the economy.
GOP has always been anti-tech -- at least no debate there.
As Biden falls below Kamala as the favorite, Trump unsurprisingly increases in likelihood of winning.
I'm not sure if you just phrased this poorly but as written it's very wrong. The implied odds vs Trump for Harris are much better than the implied odds for Biden. As such, Trump's odds drift quite significantly as Harris becomes favourite for the nomination over Biden. I've been watching this market quite closely over the last few weeks and Trump has consistently been at longest odds when Biden was also at the longest odds to be the Dem nominee.
To put some numbers on it (using Betfair exchange odds), the current implied chance of winning presidency given he's the nominee for Biden is ~25% and for Harris the implied win chance is ~38%. It's a pretty huge difference.
Oh you guys.
I never said it was some great insight that the US is dominated by corrupttion and elites. I said to not recognize that is like believing in q.
I did not call for a dictorship of the proletariat. I pointed out that in this very country, within some people's living memory, it was a national scandal that donors paid for Nixon's airfare. Was everyone a Marxist back then?
That was around the time we built the interstate hwy system:
You seem to be responding to some mythical person in this thread who you believe argued that corruption doesn't exist in the U.S.
It is far from certain, and I don't have inside information, but I now think it is more likely than not that Biden will withdraw before the end of the weekend.
I say that mainly because we are rapidly approaching a critical mass of Democratic politicians and media calling for it, and once we hit that critical mass, people will pile on en masse, partly to make sure it happens and partly to avoid getting crosswise with his prospective replacements.
It is far from certain, and I don't have inside information, but I now think it is more likely than not that Biden will withdraw before the end of the weekend.
I say that mainly because we are rapidly approaching a critical mass of Democratic politicians and media calling for it, and once we hit that critical mass, people will pile on en masse, partly to make sure it happens and partly to avoid getting crosswise with his prospective replacem
Hopefully whoever replaces him will be able to go toe to toe with Trump on a platform of crypto and lols.
Biden is having a press conference today.
Now you're getting it.
I'm still confused why a competent and fit Biden would step down though.
Looks like Batman had him removed.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3g0...
Mr Biden also has a sit-down interview scheduled with NBC News presenter Lester Holt on Monday. A fumble or misstep in the days ahead could buttress all the most damaging assertions [George] Clooney, a top Democratic fundraiser, makes in his New York Times piece.
The actor writes that the president's decline is not an illusion; it’s real. He points to a Los Angeles fundraiser he threw for the president last month. “The Joe Biden I was with three weeks ago at the fundraiser was not the Joe... of 2010,” he writes. “He wasn’t even the Joe Biden of 2020. He was the same man we all witnessed at the debate.”
The president is not up to the task of beating Donald Trump in November, Clooney continues. He calls the Biden campaign’s claim that he is the choice of Democratic primary voters “disingenuous, at best”. And, perhaps most devastating, he says every prominent Democrat he has spoken with knows all this – whether they’re willing to publicly admit it or not.
Biden should wear the batsuit.
Oh you guys.
I never said it was some great insight that the US is dominated by corrupttion and elites. I said to not recognize that is like believing in q.
I did not call for a dictorship of the proletariat. I pointed out that in this very country, within some people's living memory, it was a national scandal that donors paid for Nixon's airfare. Was everyone a Marxist back then?
That was around the time we built the interstate hwy system:
Nixon's policies would be considered communist today
If Biden drops out, do bets on him lose or are they void? I assume they lose, just double checking.
I assume that the odds on Biden and the odds on dems were probably not too far apart before the debate so the smart money bet dems rather than Biden?
Sorry if these questions are dumb, I know zero about politics betting.
I assume that the odds on Biden and the odds on dems were probably not too far apart before the debate so the smart money bet dems rather than Biden?
Sorry if these questions are dumb, I know zero about politics betting.
actually there's been a considerable gap between party and biden (and trump as well) for this entire cycle
i think earlier in the year you could have wagered on both at like +175 and so long as they both stayed in you were guaranteed a profit - but obviously you had issues of not being able to get down a significant amount that early on
actually there's been a considerable gap between party and biden (and trump as well) for this entire cycle
i think earlier in the year you could have wagered on both at like +175 and so long as they both stayed in you were guaranteed a profit - but obviously you had issues of not being able to get down a significant amount that early on
Well, and also, if both don't stay in, you're hosed, right?
Fair. Would depend on the wording of each book, but I'm guessing in 99% of markets Biden dropping out = loss on Biden bets. In fact the only way I imagine it wouldn't is if that particularly book was being shady. ie. they propped up the liquidity with a bunch of their own action on Biden, so refunded themselves with *terms*
I stand to win a significant amount on this if another Democrat other than listed wins (Hillary, AOC, E. Warren, and Bernie are also in the list). Smashed it at 1c back in Jan/Feb. Team Whitmer I guess.
It's possible to buy BTC and BRK, and more at the same time! As long as you don't decide you won't invest in a company because of some crazed ideology.
GOP has always been anti tech and they're horrible for the economy overall.
Yeah, companies don't do well when corporate tax rates go down because then they end up having to keep more of the money that they earn and they can't figure out what to do with it. Companies also hate when repubs cut business regulation because then they don't have to pay more money to jump through hoops.
Agreed. Also it is extremely simply minded to look at how the stock market or the economy performs from day 1 of when a president takes over to his last day and give him credit/blame for what happened. Almost every policy that effects the market/economy is felt well after a president's last day and the full effect of those policies don't start day 1 of a policy getting enacted.
Clooney writes that the president's decline is not an illusion; it’s real. He points to a Los Angeles fundraiser he threw for the president last month. “The Joe Biden I was with three weeks ago at the fundraiser was not the Joe... of 2010,” he writes. “He wasn’t even the Joe Biden of 2020. He was the same man we all witnessed at the debate.”
The president is not up to the task of beating Donald Trump in November, Clooney continues. He calls the Biden campaign’s claim that he is the choice of Democratic primary voters “disingenuous, at best”. And, perhaps most devastating, he says every prominent Democrat he has spoken with knows all this – whether they’re willing to publicly admit it or not.
Up In The Air is a good film. And Vera Faminga is hawt.
Of course executives don't shift everything on day one. That would be odd to assert, though Project 2025 wants to ...
It took years of stability for the current admin to correct the markets and reign in inflation, but everything was stable for a couple years and it's been green ever since.
In recent history this pattern continues: GOP spends trillions, tanks the economy, make their friends and family richer. Democrats make things more stable, make themselves richer, fix the economy.
There's no way MAGA coming in to burn down DC with a nazi army will be good for the economy long term.
