2024 ELECTION THREAD

But at that point you're essentially claiming that paying a (debatably optional) membership fee for the running of a social club is a charity donation.

Remember where this discussion started - you using these donations to demonstrate that right wingers are more empathetic(/sympathetic).

The fact that the tax code treats it as such is already pretty lol, but I guess this is not the time or place to go down that road.

sounds like communism, m8. no thanks!

besides, as a supposed libertarian, why do you gaf about community or society at all? run along

And how many people were imprisoned under her direction for minor drug offenses? I'm very curious to hear this staggering number (hint: I know the exact number).

not communism because it's voluntary!

libertarian give a **** about society, they just want to achieve what they perceive as good outcomes without violent cohercion

contributing more than your fair share for a community existing that helps people is 101 empathy

I'm gonna need a source on tithing being voluntary. If it is, I suspect it's only so in a very, very narrow sense of "voluntary".

Still feels wrong or even like a whole new adjective for self proclaimed empaths

Team ‘Sort by Crowd Size’ having a tough go of it these days

is that outside four seasons total landscaping?

Just a question is anyone really expecting any different reactions from Trump with having to deal with a new candidate now? I mean this is all pretty expected of Trump right?

The senile moron seems to think Biden's still running. He seems to be going on about him every other sentence.

If Brian James was around he might be a little shocked, but would never admit it. There might be one or two others. But the rest of us are not even slightly surprised that Trump is acting a fool, no.

by StoppedRainingMen P

Team ‘Sort by Crowd Size’ having a tough go of it these days

I didn't realize his extended family was that large.

He and Trump correctly figured they need help digging that hole.

State Attorney General does State Attorney General things is the lamest of lame attacks..

they didnt even get harris saying the thing about labor, they just quoted some random lower level bureaucrat lawyer's motion..

also it's hilarious that the whole thing is over credits. people are the right HATE the idea of 2for1 credits, so it's just super disingenuous.

I knew it was to good to be true for Trump but I expected him to go Trumpster but not as bad as he has been

I have totals from Nate Silver (NS) who founded 538.com and is on his own now. His graphs are similar to 538.com in terms of style but his algorithms are now slightly different. Also he has stats for 11 states where 538.com only has 6 (they just added NV). I did 3 different 8 day periods:
7/22 (when Biden stepped down) to 7/29, 7/30 to 8/6 (when Walz was named VP), and 8/7 to 8/14 (today).

MP = Multiple Polls, Un=Undecided

AZ: Kamala leads by 1.3% with 4.5% RFK and 6.2% Un. [538.com she is up 0.6%] Biden trailed by 5.5% MP. At 7/29 no change, at 8/6 she was -1.4%
FL: Kamala trails by 4.7% with 4.4% RFK and 6.1% Un, Biden trailed by 8.8% MP. At 7/29 she was -7.5%, at 8/6 she was -5.6%
GA: Kamala trails by 0.6% with 3% RFK and 5.6% Un. [538.com she is down 0.1%] Biden trailed by 5.9% MP. At 7/29 she was -3.9%, at 8/6 she was -1.2%
MI: Kamala leads by 3.9% with 4.8% RFK and 6.3% Un. [538.com she is up 3.4%] Biden trailed by 2.4% MP. At 7/29 she was +2.4%, at 8/6 she was +1.6% [538.com had her -0.7% and then +1.6%]
MN: Kamala leads by 8.1% HU with 4.2% RFK and 8.5% Un. Biden was tied MP. At 7/29 she was +7.5%, at 8/6 she was +7.4%
NC: Kamala trails by 0.6% with 3% RFK and 5.6% Un, Biden trailed by 6.9% MP. At 7/29 she was -3.6%, at 8/6 she was -2.1%
NH: Kamala leads by 7.1% with 5% RFK and 2.7% Un. Biden trailed by 1% in latest poll. At 7/29 she was +4.9%, at 8/6 she was +6.1%
NV: Kamala leads by 0.9% with 3.9% RFK and 7.2% Un. [538.com she is down 0.2%] Biden trailed by 5.7% MP. At 7/29 she was -4.2%, at 8/6 she was -0.6%
PA: Kamala leads by 1.7% with 3.7% RFK and 5.8% Un. [538.com she is up 2.1%] Biden trailed by 4.4% MP. At 7/29 she was -0.4%, at 8/6 she was +0.9% [at 8/6 538.com had her +0.8%]
VA: Kamala leads by 5.1% with 5.2% RFK and 6.1% Un. Biden led by 1.4% MP. At 7/29 she was +2.5%, at 8/6 she was +4.4%
WI: Kamala leads by 3.9% with 3.6% RFK and 5.3% Un. [538.com she is up 3.5%] Biden trailed by 2.3% MP. At 7/29 she was +0.3%, at 8/6 she was +1.3% [at 8/6 538.com also at +1.3%]

MI and MN were the only 2 states where the 2nd 8 days were -% for Kamala. Could have had to do with the likelihood of Shapiro and Kelley being the VP choice and Whitmer and Walz being longshots. Though for 538.com MI was the only state where the first two 8 day increases were basically the same and the last 8 day increase was better (and NS had no states where that happened - it is likely that NS screwed up MI in the first 8 days...)

Kamala's gains are slowing down in the third 8 day period in AZ, FL, GA, MI (per 538.com), NH, NV (though it is the same gain as the first 8 days), and VA. She is still gaining ground in 3 states (MN, NC, and WI) and NV gained the same in the last two 8 day periods.

Overall Kamala averaged a gain of 3.1% in the first 8 days, a gain of 1.7% in the second 8 days, and a gain of 1.4% in the last 8 days. So overall it is slowing down but still not at the point where it is stopping.

The current electoral score from NS: 286 to 251 with Kamala ahead. From 538.com the score is: 280 to 257 (the difference being NV)

The only states which look extremely secure for Kamala are MN and NH. Otherwise the undecided voters are close to 6% in most states and the RFK vote seems to continue to go down as well and the Kamala lead, if she has one, is much smaller than the undecided totals. If tomorrow was election day there would be no way to predict what would happen. The last two elections, the undecideds went overwhelmingly to Trump. But I read somewhere recently that they think the undecideds will break differently this year.

The next 8 day period will end 8/22 which is also when the DNC ends. I will keep you posted...

edit: I think the current difference in Nevada with NS and 538.com is a result of a poll on 8/5 by a Republican pollster that had Kamala ahead by like 5% that 538.com did not use for whatever reason.

Fox Host Jessica Tarlov fact-checks Trump lies

give Jessica at Fox a medal - having to try and explain reality to the brain-deads around that table

How horrible was the laugh from both Elon and Daffy Duck,
when they were laughing about sacking workers, sickening!

The KKK's motto was literally "America First," a phrase Trump and his
followers have adopted as their own and used throughout his political career.

pro-segregation Mothers’ League of Central High School in the 1950s,
“If the integrationists win this school board fight, the schools will be integrated this fall.
There will be absolutely nothing you or we can do to stop it,”
the flier warns. “DO YOU WANT NEGROES IN OUR SCHOOLS?”

The Trump War Room post on Tuesday is stoking those same bigoted fears about changing neighborhoods

https://www.msnbc.com/the-reidout/reidou...

If his campaign were more about his vision for the future and his plans, then the candidate wouldn't matter much. But instead, much of his campaigning focused on the past and just saying how horrible Biden was. That made it difficult to pivot, and it's not very inspiring.

Tina Peters, goes off the rails on Steve Bannon's channel over election fraud
lies one day after her staggering election tampering conviction in Colorado.

all Republicans have got is projection, deflection and or distraction. Once you learn this,
you're tooled up to spot it every time, and you'll realize how they reveal their own crimes every time

He knows his audience and most of them probably think bidens still running. I mean a majority of them can’t even place Canada on a map.

It is all out of Trump's usual playbook of bluster

It's reasonable to campaign against an unpopular incumbent by talking more about how bad he is than anything else, and it was working very well.

Trump gambled that the democrats couldn't block Biden from running and he lost that bet (and probably his chance to win, with that).