2024 ELECTION THREAD

Well, I'd probably consider the OP of that thread as beyond hope and not participate in the first place, which is what I've done. 😃 But if I was actively participating, then I actually think I'd respond, as you did. Maybe directly, or maybe via someone else's post.

Knowing this, which you hadn't mentioned before, your reaction makes a little more sense. Still a little surprised how strong it is, and it certainly doesn't make any more sense out of calling him a liar or saying "no amount of data refuting it is ever going to get you to alter your stance", but I can mostly follow the thought process at least.

That said, I'm still no more certain as to what US immigrants' opinion is on illegal immigrants. Not that it's especially important to me, or that it's up to anyone to educate me on the matter, just saying that I've found neither argument convincing or dismissible. I'd expect some would be resentful because they believed that said illegals were skipping all the effort they had to go through, others would have more sympathy for those fleeing difficult circumstances, and all of them would have their opinions strengthened or altered to varying degrees by how long they had been in the US, what their experience had been, the politics around them, and other factors.In the end, if I was forced to put some money down, I'd assume those factors balance out and go with the overall numbers lining up with others in their own demographics (IE age, location, income, culture, etc.). Not that anyone asked me. :p

yeah it was pretty clear to me, i was discussing something i actually have first hand and expert knowledge on and the person disagreeing was simply going with his hunch based on his value system and was sharing bad reports and lying about it

so yeah, i didn't have much patience for him

you also misunderstood, i'm not making 6betme's argument, i'm using his "study" on sandwich time preparation as valid source to demonstrate to you why your first hand knowledge of making sandwiches and the time required is null and void because although i've never once made a sandwich myself, i found a good "study" on it from our resident sandwich expert and thus everything you know about sandwiches is wrong - that's the point i was making, you have yet to provide a source on the time it requires to make sandwiches, i have

so are you going to bother responding with your own "study" on sandwich time preparation or realize it's best not to treat anything i post seriously?

that study is an absolute shameful abortion and the authors should be burned at the stake, they know fully well what they did and it's an outright shameful thing doing what they did, cold calling burner cell phones and then asking them if they were breaking the law and when they said now just said "ok we'll mark them down as legal" whereas the overwhelming majority of immigrants on prepaid cell phones are not going to be legal immigrants, who are nearly all highly paid and in demand white collar experts - which is how they got the legal status in the first place - college professors, engineers at google, people who design industrial lasers are not using prepaid cell phones

I travelled today to a different city where I have a Venezuelan friend in Colombia and I asked him if he's ever thought about going to the US and he was saying how his nephew did the route over land through Panama and into the US and now somehow he's legal and living in Boca Raton. But he was like "yeah that's not for me I've heard stories about people getting kidnapped by the cartels in Mexico", and how he knows another person living in New York who has to work three jobs to get by.

biden at 91% in iowa with 4% uncommitted
obama was 99% as incumbent in 2012
seems bad? or nothingburger?

Hahahahahaha. Be sure to give us a list of the subjects for which you have obtained expert status so that we don't question you, no matter how poor the opinion.

again feel free to post something from the last decade that supports what you are claiming.

It appears I did indeed misunderstand. In that case, the parallel doesn't work all that well for me as the study provided in this thread doesn't seem as obviously flawed, but I haven't examined it all that carefully, so I'll bow out at that. I'd still stand by the rest of what I said in the previous post, although you've given me more to consider if I were to really try to figure out what US immigrants' opinion is on illegal immigrants

you don't specifically target the bottom rung of society via cold calling prepaid cellphones and ask them over the phone if they are actively breaking the law and expect to get responses predominantly from legal immigrants and/or get those here who are there illegally to let down their guard and disclose to a total stranger over the phone who could be ICE for all they know that they are indeed here illegally

they didn't even get their list of those there illegally by getting that volunteered either, they only put them into that cohort if they were unable to answer the question of whether they were in the united states via legal means - had they just said "sure" then they would have been put into the legal cohort - the only ones who were classified as illegal were the ones who were made so nervous by the question they were unable to answer it

illegal immigrants tend not to disclose to strangers that they are illegal - as an expat who was often an illegal immigrant myself, i and others would never in a million years inform the locals that we were there working on tourist visas etc, it just takes one person informing on you to get deported - no matter what my status was, i always told people i had a proper work visa, unless it was the authorities in which case i was just on a lengthy vacation and came from money

imagine you're cheating on your spouse and a coworker casually asks you in front of others at the office if you're cheating on your spouse, are you going to think "well he did ask and it would be wrong for me to lie here" - or to harp on recency, the age old question of whether or not you stopped beating your wife 😀

this group clearly wanted to get the opinions of illegal immigrants and pass it off as the opinion of another group

here's a recent podcast that deals with the reason for widespread fraud in academia

https://freakonomics.com/podcast/why-is-...

here's the main group they interviewed, you can check out your website https://datacolada.org/ the reasons for the fraud are not often nefarious or agenda pushing, they are often just trying to get published and know specific findings will yield more interest

was pretty intimidated by the first 100 immigrant wall support tangent posts, decided i wasn't going to go there

by post 350 -- with two camps firmly in opposite corners shouting "DO YOU UNDERSTAND REALITY?" at each other -- i had to see what this was about

...big wow to slighted and trolly and whoever else parroted "THE DATA SAYS" and "DID YOU EVEN READ THE METHODOLOGY"

did you read the methodology? as rr said, they coldcalled/mailed likely immigrants (including a decent chunk of prepaids) and offered them money to respond to a survey. there was no verification of their immigration status, only self-reporting. who is going to volunteer they're here illegally? evidently zero, as there is only a category for "likely undocumented", albeit small, because again who is going to say "IM HERE ILLEGALLY HOPE YOURE NOT A COVERT ICE AGENT LOL". to say nothing of the selection bias where illegal immigrants would be infinitely less likely to jeopardize their lives and respond to the survey for $10-20.

this is everything wrong with studies and "scientific" data

it's confirmation bias at it's finest, a bunch of rubes in a room together with absolutely zero first hand knowledge nor even background info and yet will fight to the last breath with utter intransigence against accepting that it could be any other way than what they know must be true in their heart of hearts because that's how they want the world to be

it's really sad and pathetic

only thing separating these folks from the qanon, flat earthers, climate change deniers, and fox news brethren that they despise so much is the target, the means and methodology are identical

It's really sad and pathetic that Cuepee thinks his own experience lying about his legal immigration status and LBs posted citation are enough to self qualify as expert status. His appeal to his "authority" is a lame attempt to invalidate actual data.

Wait what? Smartdfs is Cuepee?

That would really, really surprise me.

No idea who jj was referring to, otherwise?

hes referring to rickroll

apparently 10% were willing to say they were undocumented.

if you guys hate polling and think it's unscientific that's fine. just say so, and then see your way out of discussing politics.

Oh, because of the posting style. Sorry guys, was being slow there.

As dumb as it sounds, I am every so slightly heartened that Trump was only getting 60-80% of the vote in Super Tuesday races. It's less than 95%.

Who is the likely running mate here? He has a legitimate opportunity to get people on the fence or turned off to him entirely to show up and begrudgingly pull the lever against Biden in hopes that Trump chokes on a McNugget 3 weeks in.

I'm betting on stefanik.

Well, you gave it your best nikki. rip.

i'd still bet she endorses him prior to the election. she's playing tough now, but she'll kiss the ring. and we'll have another ted cruz photo where she's calling voters for him.

jfc you are beyond hope, this is not what they said at all, this has been addressed ad nauseum

do you need rescuing? you post like are you entombed in a block of jello

Of course she is going to endorse trump. I highly doubt there are many repub politicians that think the country will be better off under biden than trump.

On the other hand, the dem nomination was more up for grabs this year than we've seen either party open with an incumbent in a long time (ever?) and all the dems fell in line. I know dems will claim this was due to a non-existent bench, but there has to be 100 small time mayors or a less known senator somewhere that could have beaten biden. But talk about kissing the ring.

This poll is not remotely as bad as you're making it out to be. It's not exactly uncommon for polls to cover topics that you might think people would be unwilling to divulge, up to and including illegal activities, but they're regularly proven to be surprisingly accurate even under these circumstances. This was also entirely an opt-in poll, not a spur of the moment request thing - the cold calling/letters etc were to make people aware of it but ultimately the respondents had to explicitly ring up, fill out a paper questionnaire, or go online to take part so anyone who was seriously scared about having their illegal status found out simply wouldn't have taken part at all.

It's not even like it's from a random polling company either, KFF is a large and as far as I can tell generally well regarded polling company. Sure it probably has a somewhat larger margin of error than a poll about a more mundane topic would have but it is not remotely on the level of being completely useless and dismissing it out of hand is similarly ignorant to someone dismissing a poll because the sample size is a few thousand for a population of millions.