2024 ELECTION THREAD

I don't think you or anyone else has enough data to claim that conclusively

I agree that Biden is the best candidate (among viable ones) for the democrats because he is uniquely well positioned with white seniors (both sexes), among democrats.

Others could capture a slightly higher share of young people, or white women, but white seniors, especially non college graduated ones, a demography that tends to skew republican a lot, vote a lot and are super relevant for the swing states and Biden is much stronger than any other democrat among them.

For Trump instead i disagree, because there is a small , but big enough, portion of "true maga voters" that wouldn't vote a "normal" republican , enough for republicans to just lose presidential elections with any other candidate at this point imho.

Sure. It isn't possible to be certain. We are all just offering our opinions.

What's your take on the idea that a small but significant portion of trump voters would oppose any other "establishment" candidate thus guaranteeing the loss of Haley or anyone else?

I don't know about white seniors specifically, but the percentage of voters over the age of 65 who have voted Democratic has been remarkably stable over the last four presidential elections (44-45%) .

My take is that they exist, although I think they would be more likely to stay home than to vote for Biden.

But they are counterbalanced by the small but significant number of never-Trump Republicans and independents. These people would be happy to vote for someone like Haley, but won't vote for Trump. Again, this isn't a huge group. But they exist.

Enduring popularity with older voters could be a major asset for Biden in his just-announced reelection campaign. Though no Democratic presidential candidate has carried seniors — those 65 and older — since Al Gore in 2000, Biden limited his losses among that cohort, losing them by a mid-single-digit margin in 2020, according to exit polls. (By contrast, Republicans carried the senior vote by roughly twice that margin — 10 or 12 points, depending on the voter survey, in the 2022 midterm elections.)

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/29...

The main demographic where someone like Haley would outperform Trump is college educated women. That group tends to place a lot of value on abortion rights and treating women respectfully, which obviously are areas where Trump rates poorly. Unsurprisingly, that demographic has been a real drag on Trump's electability.

I learned recently that the gender gap mostly went in the opposite direction prior to 1980, which was somewhat surprising to me.

I don't know about the mid terms, but the statistics I cited for the last four presidential elections are correct. Just google "Roper presidential election [YEAR]."

I was a big fan of Newsom 6-7 years ago and thought he was a better candidate than Biden and thought he may run. He is a great politician that looks and speaks well but his record in California may hurt him in a general.

I agree with you on your bottom line but would add in my Bottom Line

I think the Democrats would win if someone either than Biden was on the ballot

Trumps not going to quierwky go away if Haley wins the nomination. He’ll be spreading all sorts of nonsense about how she committed crimes to steal it from him.

Hope we elect some old guy as president

I feel woman will be the deciding factor on who’s elected .

well, guess who votes - old people

Republicans seem dead set on making Taylor Swift out to be political opposition which is hilarious.

Many in her fan base are borderline cultists. As dumb as it sounds, this is how you get many young women to vote left (as if they needed more motivation)

funny you mention that, last night i came across some random stuff poking fun at idiots who were posting "we need to promoto bobert as the answer to taylor swift" and I thought they were just finding outlier idiots and poking fun at them

also seen a bunch of people on twitter talking about needing to root for the ravens just because of taylor

but man, if that's a thing, like a genuine thing then that's going to backfire tremendously

idk if she's gotten political or not, but her fan base are absolutely rabid and likely don't vote, if voting for democrats was suddenly aligned with supporting taylor that could easily bump up a 5 figure voting bloc out of the void

would be incredibly dumb and tone deaf imo but they've had so much success for so long targeting "hollywood elite" that I can see how they are just going to do it anyway to "rile up the base"

What, did she drink some bud light or something?

If you can Get Taylor Swift to endorse you all the power in the world. I respect the fact that she gets politically involved in State issues and if she wants to go Federal The GOP can counter with Rosanne Barr

I hear she sings a mean national anthem.

Yeah I hate the chiefs and sure the whole thing is kinda annoying but lol at making it political.

republicans against tailor swift is one of the biggest mistakes they could do ever.

they went crazy because Swift was very pro "go vote", but they fail to understand a ton of Swift followers are very far from being leftist crazies, they are actually very normal people who could easily vote republicans if republicans don't suicide themselves.

I see something similar with the debacle of republicans with Latinos vote before trump (trump for some reasons seems capable of capturing Latinos vote)

Let’s also remember lots of these young swifties are like the squad and pro Hamas and they are upset at Bidens support for Israel

actually, not really, and those will vote whatever sick leftist they want to no matter swift or others.

think about all the political normies pls.

the "already in the field" actually don't matter at all. they vote the same no matter your actions

this, it's about which people weren't going to vote but now will