2024 ELECTION THREAD
The next presidential race will be here soon! Please see current Bovada odds. Thoughts?
Can I get in on this action?
Mainly have funds on her to run yes, that's where odds are based on my analysis. And wagered a smaller amount on Newsome incase.
I know that you have money on her to be the nominee, and I assume you have your reasons. I'm asking what those reasons are.
One possible reason could be that she has the best chance of beating Trump if Biden drops out.
That might be true, but I am 99.9% certain that people she trusts have made that case to her more than once. And I see no evidence that she is even tempted. Not everyone wants to be POTUS.
I think I'm back off voting for Biden.
While it's inconceivable to the limo lib/msnbc mind, I sincerely do find blowing up hospitals and deliberately slaughtering civilians to be intolerable.
I understand using tax money to buy bombs to drop on children is good for the stock market, but I dislike it anyway. Can't vote for someone this blood thirsty.
While he made some empty gestures on improving life for the non-rich, none really panned out.
Congrats to whatever 3rd party makes the ballot in my state.
Nikki Haley was the only candidate running — and she lost to nobody.
More than 47,000 Nevada Republicans took the time to show up at the
polls and cast a ballot for “none of these candidates” rather than vote for her.
The GOP has become the party of nothing: no ideas, no agenda,
no accomplishments and no interest in governing the country.
Even when given a choice between someone and no one, Republicans picked the latter.
The GOP is a party organized around an unending set of grievances.
The political incentive to let problems fester — and use that as a tool
to rile up its voters — is much stronger than any desire to solve them.
In 2023, the House passed a mere 27 pieces of legislation that became law
on 724 votes — making it the least productive Congress of the past decade.
“doing stuff” is not really what interests GOP voters.
“Stuff to be angry about” is much more their speed.
Even if they wanted to get stuff done, as the votes in Congress this week suggest, it’s hard to
imagine that they actually could. It’s not just that they don’t want to govern; they don’t know how to.
I think I'm back off voting for Biden.
While it's inconceivable to the limo lib/msnbc mind, I sincerely do find blowing up hospitals and deliberately slaughtering civilians to be intolerable.
I understand using tax money to buy bombs to drop on children is good for the stock market, but I dislike it anyway. Can't vote for someone this blood thirsty.
While he made some empty gestures on improving life for the non-rich, none really panned out.
It’s always hard to contrôle far right wing leaders to do stupid things like bibi does and yet u condemn biden for it ?
Us been selling arms worldwide for Along time now and u can be sure the 3rd party will do the same …
Fwiw about lower wages .
Without high school education
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LEU02...
With high school but no college
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LEU02...
Seem both trending higher then 2019 -20 and before .
I think this generalizes to politics as well
extremist outlets asking for political donations which they instead use to buy mc mansions for the associatios leaders and the like
Sounds pretty mushy to me. Firstly, younger generations are online a lot more. The methodology sounds non existent.
It also said gen z reports falling for scams more, which could be a sign that they recognize it more often.
There are a lot of politically driven grifters out there but it's a fine line. Hannity, Rush, Chris mathews, Don lemon etc. Have all made huge fortunes preaching politics.
Most of them literally don't know what they're talking about. Know nothing of political theory, economics etc. Aren't trained in those fields and haven't read up on their own. Probably couldn't explain the meanings of lw and rw.
It's hard to say where the line is as far as it being a scam. But I don't see why supporting a youtuber on patreon is inherently a scam but paying to watch cable news, read a periodical or listening to ads for a talk radio show is inherently never a scam.
I wonder if the Dems continue with Biden and the gaffes continue, whether RFK's chances of playing spoiler grow.
Seems silly until I think about what happened in 2016 and 2020.
I wonder if the Dems continue with Biden and the gaffes continue, whether RFK's chances of playing spoiler grow.
Seems silly until I think about what happened in 2016 and 2020.
They of course go up, probably from .1% to .15%
I know that you have money on her to be the nominee, and I assume you have your reasons. I'm asking what those reasons are.
One possible reason could be that she has the best chance of beating Trump if Biden drops out.
That might be true, but I am 99.9% certain that people she trusts have made that case to her more than once. And I see no evidence that she is even tempted. Not everyone wants to be POTUS.
Reasons for betting:
- Campaign-worthy post in Sept last yr (around there) with Barack next to Lake Michigan talking about the DNC convention
- "Terrified of a Trump re-election" (indication of her feeling obligated)
- Huge sudden involvement in Podcasts, Opera, appearances at key US events such as US Open and 9/11
- Allows Barack to continue to "run things from behind the scenes" as he said he wished to after his term ended
- Able to sway a large voter base at a time such voter base is steering away from sleepy Joe
- Can't get rid of Kamala Harris without stirring the pot due to her ethnicity so they have to get someone in like Michelle
Sure, subjectivity across all my points but I got better than 30-1 overall so am happy with it given odds are 7-1 currently
According to a cyber-security official at the White House in an interview she did also tell a White House staff she wouldn't consider pres after "seeing the s**t her husband went through" but this was years ago, maybe after seeing that Biden doesn't call any of the shots might make the role a bit more appealing
I don't know how Newsom beats Trump either with the mass CA exodus and inability to sway a large voter base as another unpopular white male, so Michelle would be the best shot at defeating Trump for this DNC that's in shambles atm
I wonder if the Dems continue with Biden and the gaffes continue, whether RFK's chances of playing spoiler grow.
Seems silly until I think about what happened in 2016 and 2020.
After watching the morning shows today and the Biden team saying he did nothing wrong and Jill Biden helping out with a fundraising letter I think its full steam ahead with Biden
I do not see RFK as the spoiler for the Dems but Cornel West more of a spoiler
I don't know if this is what you meant, but I'd say that's his top end chance of winning the presidency, although I'd take it down an order of magnitude or two. 😀
I'm thinking of something as simple as costing the Dems a small number of votes in a few key states that is enough to swing things. While I think RFK is nutty enough in a few areas to make him completely unelectable, I don't rule pretty much anything out in the US any more, and it sounds like they might be running a pretty good third party campaign early on. That said, it's just a moment in time, and other candidates in the past have run great social media campaigns that turned to very little in the end. Also, people concerned about Biden's well-being might just vote for a different third party candidate or stay home if RFK weren't running.
I have no idea if RFK's chance of having an impact on the election is 0.1%, 1%, or 10%. But as I said, there's little I dismiss in the current political climate.
Fairly exceptional poll results imho.
Might go away as a main topic closer to the election but for now this is as big as it can be for Biden.
86% is an incredibly high number, it means virtually all independents and many democrats consider Biden too old to serve another term
I don't know if this is what you meant, but I'd say that's his top end chance of winning the presidency, although I'd take it down an order of magnitude or two. 😀
I'm thinking of something as simple as costing the Dems a small number of votes in a few key states that is enough to swing things. While I think RFK is nutty enough in a few areas to make him completely unelectable, I don't rule pretty much anything out in the US any more, and it
I misread your post. My apologies. I was giving odds for him to become president. And upon reflection, I was being too generous. His odds of becoming president are probably closer to 1 in 5,000.
It’s always hard to contrôle far right wing leaders to do stupid things like bibi does and yet u condemn biden for it ?
Us been selling arms worldwide for Along time now and u can be sure the 3rd party will do the same …
Fwiw about lower wages .
Without high school education
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LEU02...
With high school but no college
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LEU02...
Seem both trending higher then 2019 -20
I know the US arms dealers sell to anyone. In most wars, our soldiers fight people using American weapons.
The argument that someone else would do it if we didn't is the argument of every drug dealer, pimp, mobster etc. Don't buy it.
Also we are giving them billions in tax money to buy the weapons, not just selling them.
I probably drive past literally 1,000 homeless people a week. We're spending enough to buy 200,000 condos on butchering civilians, destroying universities, assassinations of journalists and blowing up hospitals.
Can't rubber stamp the lesser evil when it's this evil.
Doesn’t change the fact your « 3rd option » would not stop those selling anyway .
So why make it a point at all ?
And maybe u think it’s a great but I don’t think forcing some allies to buy Russians armements is great either ….
I tend to condemn people using arms in a bad way , not those selling them for defence purpose.
Rfk campaign can afford a superbowl commercial?
