ex-President Trump
I assume it's still acceptable to have a Trump thread in a Politics forum?
So this is an obvious lie - basically aimed at low-info Boomers like my religions aunts. I have two questions:
a) Is anyone here who supports Trump bothered by lies like this?
b) Does anyone know what he's even talking about here? Like is there some grain of truth that he's embellishing on bigly?
Mercedes numba juan
Biden never been that bad and yet mitch still the leader of his group….
Are we going to see republicans complain about him too on the next cycle being unfit ?
Of course not, his one of them, that do not count !
And her husband Matt Schlapp azz(former head of CPAC?) was accused of some gay stuff by a male staffer. Yhtsi
Trump got his own wife’s name wrong in a...
The debates should be fun. It'll be like Rocky II, where both Rocky and Apollo go down and whoever gets up first wins but in this case it'll be whichever can remember what date the election is on.
EDIT: It's claimed Trump was actually referring to Mercedes Schlapp, his former White House director of strategic communications.
Was the real Mercedes actually there?
I agree and will likely bet on biden at some point. I disagree slightly in regards to cognitive decline, while I agree Joe isn’t at his peak I don’t think his cognitive decline is an issue or very big.
I don't think we should get lost in how bad the cognitive decline is. The difference between -1,200 and -200 is staggering.
I'm not sure what the max bet is, but even if it is only $250 it seems awfully generous for bovada to offer -200 on a bet if the real odds should be -1000 (or whatever you think it actually should be). And why would they be generous on only biden's bet - do you think they offer other wagers that are +EV for the bettors?
Trump got his own wife’s name wron...
The debates should be fun. It'll be like Rocky II, where both Rocky and Apollo go down and whoever gets up first wins but in this case it'll be whichever can remember what date the election is on.
EDIT: It's claimed Trump was actually referring to Mercedes Schlapp, his former White House director of strategic communications.
Not to make excuses for him, but Mercedes is the most popular stripper name in the US and who are we to judge if he had a boys' night recently. Mercedes is to strip clubs as Muhammad is to the middle east.
it's not as big a gulf as you believe though
let's say those are the exact fair lines without any vig
then it's 92% implied vs 67%, which is considerable but not "staggering"
it's also not very helpful since there isn't a yes/no option here, so the books have a lot more freedom to juice to f out of it and this could simply be a measure of the inelasticity of people betting on trump, same people who'd bet -200 at $250 will also bet -1200
tellingly, there is a trump yes/no option and with very different odds of -1600 so the market is obviously nowhere near equilibrium
so let's take trump -1200/+700, which is essentially what they are offering, and we have a "fair line" of -912 at an implied odds of 90%, something I would agree with - but again, it's important to note that -900 and -1200 are basically the same in terms of implied outcome (and if i wanted to "own you" then i would have used the simple vig free method which would say it's fair at -700 but instead chose the more accurate version as the basic methodology incorrectly weighs heavily asymmetric lines)
meanwhile you have biden at -200/+155 for the same thing which is "fair" at -176 with 64% implied
which i also think is fair, we're still 8 months out from the convention, there's a big cost to tying up money for that length of time (another reason why books are happy to lay enticing odds on futures is they can earn back a bunch by investing it) and there seems to be building consensus that perhaps it's not too late to change horses
having said that, gun to my head, i'd be betting on biden at -200 who has a "just avoid dropping dead or publicly defecating for 8 months" vs trump at -1200 and fading the same (he's old as dirt as well) in addition to legal fees and presence of actual challengers
but again, and i can't emphasize this enough, the amount of volume bovada takes on sports betting, they don't care a single iota about presidential lines they put up for the lols as nothing with $250 limits will impact their bottom line in the slightest - they probably just view this as cheap marketing - time to pay attention to betting lines is when you can lay 5 figures on them
you can wager thousands on polymarket/predictit, where Biden's ~75% dem nominee. believe the cutoff is DNC nomination so still wins if he's replaced between Aug-Nov.
[quote=Spaceman Bryce]I agree and will likely bet on biden at some point. I disagree slightly in regards to cognitive decline, while I agree Joe isn’t at his peak I don’t think his cognitive decline is an issue or very big.[/quote]
what would you describe as "very big cognitive decline"? is mitch mcconnell freezeframe the threshold for where it becomes "an issue"?
assuming biden is the nominee, i would like to see a prop on whether a single presidential debate will occur. i don't think his team will ever let it happen...would tank his legacy and chances of re-election. don't think he's capable of it now, even less likely 7 months out.
There's no brain twitch-muscle needed in a president.
That's a product of your glitch muscle errrr
I'm seeing no debates this year, which will be the most unamerican thing ever. Just watch.
And while I'm pulling stuff straight out me bum, I also think regardless of a lot of people thinking Trump is going to win, he is going to get absolutely obliterated on Roe v. Wade alone.
I agree, just because 50% of primary voters are nuts, Trump is going to be destroyed by the independents that will never voted for him because of:
1. Roe v wade
2. His antics
3. Not wanting to give him a second chance knowing he can’t accomplish much legislatively
4. His dictatorship rhetoric doesn’t play well with anyone but his base.
The Conservative Political Action Conference is the premier gathering of right-wing activists and politicians...
This year Nazis showed up.
That this group was able to mingle with participants at a high-profile conference,
wasn't kicked out of CPAC, and wasn't appropriately condemned is a sign of how
contiguous mainstream conservatism has become with white supremacist politics today.
The Conservative Political Action Conference is the premier gathering of right-wing activists and politicians...
This year Nazis showed up.
That this group was able to mingle with participants at a high-profile conference,
wasn't kicked out of CPAC, and wasn't appropriately condemned is a sign of how
contiguous mainstream conservatism has become with white supremacist politics today.
Are you actually calling Milei who just went to cry on the wailing wall in Jerusalem a Nazi? A person who hates the state as the enemy of the people, and as such he is as far from nazism (which requires extreme statism) as it's possible to be? Have words lost all meaning for people on the left?
I agree, just because 50% of primary voters are nuts, Trump is going to be destroyed by the independents that will never voted for him because of:
1. Roe v wade
2. His antics
3. Not wanting to give him a second chance knowing he can’t accomplish much legislatively
4. His dictatorship rhetoric doesn’t play well with anyone but his base.
That's a reasonable narrative on paper but that's not what polls in purple states indicate.
What they do indicate is that non partisan people will vote Biden if they feel the economy is doing well enough and everything else counts for very little. They aren't as anti abortion as republicans, but they side with them on the issue of the border, on net it's unclear if democrats gain on non economic issues.
The fact that an incumbent president with record low unemployment is not a lock for re election with huge margins alone speaks about it.
Biden should carry 40+ states if the democrat brand wasn't as tainted as it is for many normal people.
And democrats are risking losing while running against a person with what, 4 criminal indictments? How hated must you be for that to happen?
there's a bit more depth and soul to those voters than economy good/bad.
Not like repubes have some superior record on the economy in general, the non-union rats.
there's a bit more depth and soul to those voters than economy good/bad.
Not like repubes have some superior record on the economy in general, the non-union rats.
All polls show that people for whatever reason believe republicans to be better "at the economy" than democrats.
And even if polls about the state of the economy improved a tad, there is still an absolute majority of independents claiming the economy is in bad/terrible shape (mostly they claim that because of inflation, when asked).
lol @ thinking -1200 to secure the nomination is anything more than proof of a cult and the nomination essentially being rigged.
of course he is going to win the nomination. they are literally changing rules to make sure it happens.
LOL HAHAHAHAmickey now and forever
That's a reasonable narrative on paper but that's not what polls in purple states indicate.
What they do indicate is that non partisan people will vote Biden if they feel the economy is doing well enough and everything else counts for very little. They aren't as anti abortion as republicans, but they side with them on the issue of the border, on net it's unclear if democrats gain on non economic issues.
The fact that an incumbent president wi
A big part of the problem is that Republicans (including in this forum) constantly talk about how bad the economy is. So, either you're wrong and the economy is bad or (much more likely) the lying Republicans have gotten a lot of people to believe them, including some independents. They also seem to have forgotten how bad the economy was and how high unemployment was when Trump left office (6.4%).
Do you think anyone actually hates Biden apart from those who wholly support Trump?
All polls show that people for whatever reason believe republicans to be better "at the economy" than democrats.
And even if polls about the state of the economy improved a tad, there is still an absolute majority of independents claiming the economy is in bad/terrible shape (mostly they claim that because of inflation, when asked).
we can agree that people are stupid.
A big part of the problem is that Republicans (including in this forum) constantly talk about how bad the economy is. So, either you're wrong and the economy is bad or (much more likely) the lying Republicans have gotten a lot of people to believe them, including some independents. They also seem to have forgotten how bad the economy was and how high unemployment was when Trump left office (6.4%).
Do you think anyone actually hates Biden a
No as I wrote I think they (non partisan people, independents) actually hate (or are disgusted by to some extent) democrats a lot more than they hate (or are disgusted by) Biden.
It's the democrat brand which is toxic with non partisan people.
As much as they (independents) dislike some of trump antics, republican roe v Wade reversal and a few other things, they also dislike having an open border policy, trans gender activism, and follies like banning gas stoves and so on.
This forum isn't representative because the people opposing democrats insanities are basically all very rightwing.
But the median independent wants Europe style abortion laws, would like a president that isn't a criminal or that courts didn't find plausibly to be a sexual assaulter, Switzerland (or Australia) style border control , believes a trans woman is not a woman, wants to care for the environment but without having to pay anything for it (good luck with that), and wants low unemployment but also very low inflation (good luck with that as well).
you can wager thousands on polymarket/predictit, where Biden's ~75% dem nominee. believe the cutoff is DNC nomination so still wins if he's replaced between Aug-Nov.
what would you describe as "very big cognitive decline"? is mitch mcconnell freezeframe the threshold for where it becomes "an issue"?
assuming biden is the nominee, i would like to see a prop on whether a single presidential debate will occur. i don't think his team will ever le
Short serious answer: Although old, I think Joe Biden shows no signs of any kind of cognitive decline that would make him unable to do his job. If you watch him give speeches in poland or in Jordan or discussing issues with diplomats, he seems more than up to the task. In fact , Joe Biden has served under incredibly difficult circumstances incredibly well and might be a top ten president.
Trump shows signs of cognitive decline as well but they are more pronounced if you follow his speeches and serious discussions. Still, that is for voters to decide and I think he’s literally capable of doing the job.
Are you actually calling Milei who just went to cry on the wailing wall in Jerusalem a Nazi? A person who hates the state as the enemy of the people, and as such he is as far from nazism (which requires extreme statism) as it's possible to be? Have words lost all meaning for people on the left?
While I'm not who you quoted, I don't think he was calling Milei a Nazi. If you click the links he provided, those seem like two separate things that happened at CPAC.
But the median independent wants Europe style abortion laws, would like a president that isn't a criminal or that courts didn't find plausibly to be a sexual assaulter, Switzerland (or Australia) style border control , believes a trans woman is not a woman, wants to care for the environment but without having to pay anything for it (good luck with that), and wants low unemployment but also very low inflation (good luck with that as well).
i would argue that the median person does not share you transphobia and simply doesn't have an opinion on this super fringe issue that gets rightwingers in a tizzy.
