Russian Invasion of Ukraine
More purges in Russia for being too patriotic:
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The memo follows one leaked last month which denounced Igor 'Strelkov' Girkin and other "hurrah-patriots" as a threat to the Kremlin. Solovyov's TV show on the Russia-1 channel was denounced for hosting a nightly "gang rape of the authorities".
The new memo, published by the VChK-OGPU Telegram channel, is in much the same vein. It reiterates several of the same points as its predecessor, dismissing liberals, the left and 'hipsters' as possible threats. It calls the ultra-nationalist "patriots" assets of the West.
The memo complains that the "patriots" spend too much time highlighting problems with the war effort and creating a false impression of a "fifth column" around Putin who "rule our president". This, it claims, is part of a concerted "patriots against Putin" effort.
As well as attacking propagandists, the memo castigates "a large network of feminist and women's organisations" who it says are preparing a "full-scale female hysteria". These, it says, are "ordinary nervous and hysterical women who are afraid for their children and husbands."
Public humiliation for perceived sleights against Russia/Putin (probably won't be posting more of these for obvious reasons):
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More explosions on Kerch Bridge; drone hits building in Moscow; CNN article on the drones and Ukraine's propaganda around them:
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New fronts and Romanov confirming Urozhaine captured (probably happened a few days ago imo), Russia moving around troops:
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Interesting read on the 50 Leopards recently purchased, and why 50 need to be bought in order to field 30. (WARNING TO THOSE TRIGGERED BY DOGS: THIS VILE MISCREANT HAS A DOG AS HIS AVATAR AND THEREFORE IS LIKELY A NAFO MEMBER. If all NAFO posts are this good, then it's really a solid organization):
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More Russians begging for proper support; Russians forced to clear a minefield because their commander already reported it as taken. Commander shoots soldiers if they don't attack when told to, 80% casualties for those who do attack:
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One Russian soldier told his mother, "If we don’t take Dovhenke, there are three criminal cases now hanging over the divisional commander, he [will be] imprisoned ... It was reported three weeks ago that we had taken Dovhenke. And we, over there, are [still] fighting for it."
Another soldier, Daniil Frolkin, said that his commander in the 64th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade had falsely reported the capture of a forest belt. The man was injured in a Ukrainian attack and had to be evacuated in Frolkin's armoured vehicle.
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Edit/MH:
Key:
ALCM: Air launched cruise missile
AFU: Armed Forces of Ukraine
ATACMS: Army Tactical Missile System
CEPA: Center for European Policy Analysis
HIMARS: High-Mobility Artillery Rocket System
ISW: Institute for the Study of War
KA-52: Kamov Ka-52 "Alligator" attack helicopter used by Russia
MOD: Ministry of Defense
Prig: Yevgeny Prigozhin, deceased leader of Wagner
PMC: Private military companies
SBU: Security Services of Ukraine (The law enforcement authority and main intelligence and security agency of the Ukrainian government)
UAV: Unmanned Aerial Vehicle, commonly referred to as drones.
WAPO: Washington Post
Bluegrassplayer
Last Saturday I told myself that I'd start posting my thoughts on each week the following weekend and here we are. At the time I didn't realize that it would fall on the 2nd anniversary of the full scale invasion.
There is a good chance that this week is the start of the low point of the war for Ukraine. Avdiivka fell, Johnson sent the House of Representatives on recess for 2 weeks without figuring out aid, Navalny was murdered, and Tucker continues to peddle Putin's propaganda to far right Americans even as Putin threw him under the bus for their failure of an interview. It did manage to end on a good note though with Russia destroying another one of their A-50 command planes, bringing the total amount of Russian planes downed this week up to (I think) 7. Russia had only 7 of these command planes left, they cost over 300 million, they are capable of seeing battle movement over 600km away with their advanced radar system, and they have highly trained professionals on board. Currently they are believed to be irreplaceable due to sanctions, so it is a decent win on an otherwise awful week.
AVDIIVKA
Ukraine finally withdrew from Avdiivka, which I believe they should have done a long time ago. There's a lot of rumors on why it took so long for Ukraine to withdraw, a lot of which we found out this week were exacerbated by Russian propaganda. There were lots of rumors of a rift between Zaluzhnyi and Zelenskyy, which was apparently stoked by Russia's propaganda machine. It seems this rift existed, but it's unlikely it was anything close to what the media portrayed. Ultimately Zaluzhnyi stepped down and Syrkski took over. Syrski has a negative reputation due to his defense of Bakhmut. The defense started off positively until it was surrounded and the excellent attrition ratio became far more even. Furthermore it is being argued that Ukraine's failed counteroffensive likely could have taken Tokmak if it weren't for the offensive near Bakhmut, which is believed to be politically motivated and forced by Zelenskyy. Zaluzhnyi's removal is not anything out of the ordinary following a major failed operation, but it certainly leaves a bad taste that he might have been handicapped by the person forcing his replacement.
Following the withdraw from Avdiivka there began to be rumors of a botched retreat. NYT had a pretty irresponsible article claiming up to a thousand Ukrainians being left behind. Ukraine claimed 25, which was equally ridiculous. On top of that there was evidence that some of the soldiers who surrendered were executed.
The timing of the retreat seemed to be rather suspicious as well. Zaluzhnyi could have, and likely did, want to retreat earlier. It seems like Syrksi was put in charge to try to hold Avdiivka until Putin's election in order to deprive him of a political win, but Syrski saw the situation was hopeless as well and ordered the retreat. That is entirely speculation on my part though. I doubt that anyone in Ukraine or Russia much cares about Avdiivka as far as political wins goes and it will be of limited use to Putin.
After Avdiivka's fall, Russia has continued west, although with limited results. It's still unclear where Ukraine has set up their next line of defense. Meanwhile Russia is also attacking near Robotyne, which Ukraine took during the counteroffensive. This will be exceptionally difficult to defend, but also of limited use to Russia. Russia is continuing to attack near Kupyansk, and Krynky. I think that now that Avdiivka has fallen Ukraine will likely withdraw from Krynky as well.
Elections
Exactly one month before Putin's election, Navalny was murdered. Shortly after another ultranationalist committed suicide or was murdered for complaining about Russian casualties at Avdiivka. Another anti-war candidate was barred from joining the ballot, and said he was shocked he hasn't been thrown out of a window yet. Following Navalny's death over 500 people were arrested for holding memorials and at least some were given military summons and will likely be sent to the front line. Putin has made it clear that he is not going to allow any discussion of the war occur during elections unless it's his narrative. He's also culling anyone who will not vote for him. Why is this an important thing when Putin is guaranteed to win? Here is Thomas Graham's take from Getting Russia Right:
In post-Soviet Russia, one critical way in which the president demonstrates his mastery of the political system, and earns the confidence of the elites, is oddly enough through largely uncontested elections, especially presidential ones. Because the winner is known in advance, turnout, rather than share of the vote, is the key indicator of the president's strength. He has to demonstrate that he can mobilize the support of a population that he otherwise seeks to keep passive out of considerations of regime stability by bringing them out to vote in essentially meaningless contests. Successful mobilization depends to a great degree on the active efforts of officials at all levels of government, as well as the leaders of businesses and civic organizations. If the turnout is within an appropriate range, generally around 70 percent for presidential elections, the president will have demonstrated his sway with both the elites and the population as a whole.
Elections thus send critical messages to the elites about the president’s strength. They can provide confidence that he can protect them against the masses, while managing their own competition effectively to maintain the stability of the regime. Political polling serves a similar function. An appropriately high popularity rating for the president, and a sufficiently wide margin of superiority over other leaders, minimizes the risk that the elites will lose confidence in the president. Falsification of results, ironically, does not undermine confidence in the leader, as long as it is not flagrant and excessive. To the contrary, it is yet another indication of the president’s mastery of the system.
This is what he had to say regarding Navalny:
In particular, Putin has worked the liberals from linking up with the socio-economic discontent to create a massive protest movement akin to the one that helped topple the Soviet regime. This is one reason for his harsh crackdown on Alexey Navalny, who, uniquely among the non-system liberal opposition leaders, had a knack for connecting with broader segments of the population. The approach Putin has used with noteworthy success is to paint these opposition leaders as tools of the West, while promoting patriotism among the population as a whole.
MILITARY AID
The Munich Conference occurred this week, which I hardly reported on since there was hardly anything to report. The conference was extremely depressing. While Ukraine has signed security agreements with many countries which promises aid, the fact is that Europe was too slow to launch their military industry for that to actually mean anything at this moment. Europe has sent 400k of the million promised 155mm rounds, and due to France they have not looked into buying them from elsewhere. Czech Republic said to hell with that and has been leading the charge by finding ammo elsewhere and requesting the $1.5bln required to buy it. The other two major wins out of this conference was Denmark handing over all of their artillery, and Sweden sending $700 million worth of military aid to Ukraine. It seems like they will be joining NATO soon, and they will be a powerhouse. Their only concern is Russia and they are as about as pro-Ukraine as the Baltic states.
Meanwhile Ukrainians are sending reports back that they see groupings of 5 Russians coming at them but due to lack of ammo they cannot fire artillery at them. Jack Watling said that the issues caused by ammo shortages "will initially be felt slowly and then felt fast". It's terrifying to think that this is the "slow" part. Even worse is the fact that air defense ammunition will be running out as well. I stopped reporting on Russian strikes against Ukraine cities because for the most part their air defenses have been shooting down whatever Russia launches. It felt pretty awful to stop reporting that "only" 5 were killed in the previous day's strike, but it stopped being newsworthy, much like the now daily drone strikes against Russia's military complex. It's scary to think that the numbers of civilian deaths might rise drastically and I'll have to begin posting them again.
USA is somehow on recess for 2 weeks. Johnson's campaign was apparently funded by a Russian company. The same far right reps who are stalling aid were the ones behind the Hunter Biden case, which began due to a FBI informant who was fed the info by a Russian spy. The main way to get the aid bill on the floor, despite Johnson and the far right refusing to do so, is a month long process.
Production in Europe and USA is ramping up. Rheinmetall has upped production significantly, as have other European companies. USA opened 2 more factories for 155mm ammo. It is a serious possibility that Ukraine has more ammo than Russia in 2025, but what happens in 2024, and especially the next few months, is a major question. It seems realistic that this is the low point of the war for Ukraine. I certainly hope it is.
YEAR 3 OF 3 DAY SPECIAL MILITARY OPERATION
1. Zelenskyy's message to his people
2. Tendar on the anniversary
3. Anders Puck Nielson with optimistic and pessimistic predictions for this year
4. Joe Blogs video "RUSSIA - Putin's '3 Day War' Enters Third Year as Russian Economy is Devastated by Costs & Sanctions"
5. UK MOD on initial attack and now
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ZELENSKYY
1. Comparison of where the interviews were filmed
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MILITARY PRODUCTION
UK gov article "UK to boost Ukraine's artillery reserves with £245 million munitions package"
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-to...
MILITARY AID
CBC article "Trudeau signs $3-billion security deal for Ukraine on 2nd anniversary of Russian invasion"
https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.7124330
RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA
Ukrainian woman is used in deep fakes to sell pro-Russian propaganda in China
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ZAPORIZHZHIA
1. Result of Russian BMPs which made a charge in Robotyne
2. DeepState on the "banzai attack" strategy Russians are conducting here
3. Russian armor attack
4. Daily KOS article "Ukraine: Robotyne is Falling"
NAVALNY
NBC article "Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s body returned to his mother, spokesperson says"
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HYBRID WARFARE
1. Le Figaro article "Stars of David spray painted in Paris: the operation was led by the Russian FSB"
The mysterious blue Stars of David tagged on walls in Paris and the suburbs in November 2023 were commissioned by the Russian security services, according to a source close to the matter at AFP, confirming information from Le Monde .
2. NBC artic "Former U.S. spies warned in 2020 that the Hunter Biden scandal had Russian fingerprints. They feel vindicated now."
BATTLE CLIPS
1. Drone drops grenade on another drone
2. GRAPHIC "Remote aerial explosion of drone over enemy"
3. First sighting of a damaged/destroyed Abrams
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CASUALTIES AND RECRUITMENT
1. BBC article "Ukraine war: Zelensky says 31,000 troops killed"
2. ""I was at the committee, I did not see that the General Staff said that we have up to 50 thousand [dead people - ed.]. There was no such thing at the committee... Somewhere they talked about 7-8 thousand missing people, so this is a figure somewhere up to 40,000," Kostenko said."
3. Visit Ukraine article "Demobilization of conscripts: Verkhovna Rada adopts law proposed by President" (likely precursor to mobilization bill imo)
WAR CRIMES AND HUMAN RIGHTS OFFENSES
1. Medvedev says Ukrainians in occupied lands who want to be liberated by Ukraine should be sent to Siberia and reeducated
2. "💬 Andriy Yermak: The Red Cross has not been able to gain access to a single Ukrainian prisoner of war. This is the verdict of this organization."
3. Basement where over 300 Ukrainian villagers were held for 27 days, 7 executed, 10 died
4. GRAPHIC Drone watches 9 Ukrainian POWs being executed
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MILITARY AID
1. Macron claims sending troops to Ukraine can't be ruled out; European coalition will send medium and long range missiles
2. Poland PM on the importance of USA military aid for the future of global politics
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NAVALNY
NYT article "Navalny Was Part of Discussions on a Prisoner Exchange"
As part of that deal, Ms. Pevchikh said, Germany would have released Vadim Krasikov, the man convicted of killing a former Chechen separatist fighter in a Berlin park in 2019. Mr. Putin praised Mr. Krasikov in his interview with the former Fox News host Tucker Carlson this month, describing the convicted assassin as having been motivated by “patriotic sentiments.”
Ms. Pevchikh said in the video that the West had been insisting on Mr. Navalny’s release as part of any deal to free Mr. Krasikov, whom Western officials describe as a Russian intelligence agent. By killing Mr. Navalny, she said, Mr. Putin took the possibility of his release off the table, and he planned to “offer someone else when the time comes” in order to bring home Mr. Krasikov.
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ELECTIONS
1. Vsquare article "KREMLIN LEAKS: SECRET FILES REVEAL HOW PUTIN PRE-RIGGED HIS REELECTION"
Quartapelle said such efforts appear to be “preparing the ground” for political forces on the right and the left that suggest “we can suspend our aid to Ukraine or condition it to some sort of peace process”.
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RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA
1. FT article "Russia unleashes war propaganda offensive in Italy"
2. 'Tonight Russian state TV has this message for the Russian public: “We’re for peace. But peace is always the result of war. War was forced on us. So we will secure peace again through victory.”'
Quartapelle said such efforts appear to be “preparing the ground” for political forces on the right and the left that suggest “we can suspend our aid to Ukraine or condition it to some sort of peace process”.
NATO
Sweden voted into NATO
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Obituary for someone who has on the A 50 and who else was on board
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BATTLE CLIPS
1. Ukrainian air defense shooting down a shahed (these are launched at Ukrainian cities so often I stopped including the stats on how many are shot down)
2. Armored column attacking southwest of Avdiivka (I think)
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WAR CRIMES AND HUMAN RIGHTS OFFENSES
1. Head of Zaporizhzhia occupation explaining that Ukrainians were forcefully deported to "Bandera land" to build their "Gay World"
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AVDIIVKA
1. Russia continues moving west
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CORRUPTION
Kyiv Post article "Mayor of Odesa Gennadiy Trukhanov Arrested in Connection with Embezzlement Charges"
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SANCTIONS AND RUSSIAN ECONOMY
1. Bloomberg article "Russian Oil Tankers Behave Strangely After Latest US Sanctions"
2. Reuters article "Russia bans gasoline exports for 6 months from March 1"
3. Video of Russians purchasing Starlink terminals
RECRUITMENT AND MILITARY AID
1. GREAT READ Summary of the problems Ukraine is currently facing with manpower and equipment shortages
2. FT article "Macron says sending western troops to Ukraine cannot be ruled out"
3. ft article "Germany rebuffs Emmanuel Macron on troops for Ukraine and tells Paris to ‘supply more weapons’"
4. Bloomberg article "North Korea Speeds Up Pace of Secretive Weapons Shipments to Putin"
5. Czech article "Support also from Macron. The Czech Republic succeeded in its plan to purchase ammunition for Ukraine"
6. "Israel’s ambassador to the UN, Gilad Erdan, delivered a speech in which he totally torched Russia. He not only announced that Israel is going to provide an early warning systems against missiles for Ukraine but also called Ukraine an “ally”. He also equates Russia with Hamas and attacks Russia for hosting another visit of Hamas in Moscow."
BATTLE CLIPS
1. Bradley firing
2. Two Russian APCs struck
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MILITARY AID
1. 3 minute clip: "Schumer: White House meeting on Ukraine aid was 'intense'"
2. CNN article "Pentagon considering tapping last source of Ukraine military funding as Congress stalls on additional aid"
3. South Korean Defense Minister claims up to 3m million artillery shells shipped from North Korea to Russia
4. The Spectator article "Why Macron won’t send troops to Ukraine"
It is hard not to see his statement, therefore, simply as an attempt once again to hog the limelight and also to draw attention away from Paris’s lacklustre track record in helping Ukraine. Its aid to Ukraine overall has amounted to 0.07 per cent of its GDP, for example, one of the lowest in Europe (compared with the UK’s 0.55 per cent and Poland’s 0.69 per cent). Only now is Paris lifting its opposition to a Czech-led initiative to buy artillery ammunition from outside the European Union to arm Kyiv, filling a crucial Ukrainian need.
5. NYT article "As Spending Talks Intensify, Johnson’s Bind Grows Tighter"
6. "Speakers from 23 parliaments have penned an open letter to Speaker Johnson urging the House to pass Ukraine aid"
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RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA
1. Guardian article "US leading global alliance to counter foreign government disinformation"
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2...
SANCTIONS AND ECONOMY
1. Tatarigami thread on how Russia avoids sanctions
2. Joe Blogs video "RUSSIA Bans All Gasoline Exports - Huge Production Problems & Massive Loss of Income for Russia"
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AVDIIVKA
GREAT READ Tatarigami "Key insights from our analysis (Complete report accessible on the website provided in my bio) concerning the post-Avdiivka situation, fortifications, and anticipations."
Overall, our team anticipates that the defense of these settlements may not be sustained for an extended period. The presence of water bodies and terrain further west provides Ukrainian forces with opportunities to secure more advantageous positions for easier defense. [...] Frontelligence Insight observes a notable deficiency in robust fortifications fortified with concrete and wooden structures on the Ukrainian side.
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NYT article "The Spy War: How the C.I.A. Secretly Helps Ukraine Fight Putin"
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BBC article "Sixth person charged with spying for Russia in UK"
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GREAT READ RUSI article "Weathering the Storm: Western Security Assistance on the Defensive in Ukraine"
External pressure on Kyiv to produce results with the tens of billions received in military aid has pushed it into a paradoxical position of using Western equipment and training against under-equipped and under-trained but well dug-in Russian troops. The tension caused by external expectations and pressure to perform against Russian forces likely put Zelensky in the position of having to dismiss the head of Ukraine’s ground forces, General Zaluzhny, just to appease Western capitals.
Unfortunately, even with Ukraine slated to receive some F-16s in early 2024 out of the total of 60 pledged, these US-made fighter jets will not be a ‘silver bullet’, primarily because it will take Ukrainian pilots hundreds of hours of flight time to become proficient in combat. Much like the downgraded Abrams tanks, the Ukrainians will receive older F-16 variants (last upgraded between 2003 and 2005) which lack advanced avionics, software and sensors, and the most advanced medium-range air-to-air missiles will not be supplied until 2026. Thus, even with the addition of more airpower, the Ukrainians will not be able to field enough F-16 sorties to deter or shoot down Russian Tu-95s that attack Ukrainian cities with hypersonic air-launched ballistic missiles from a considerable standoff distance. If Washington wants improved outcomes, the dithering on properly helping, arming and training leaders in Kyiv should be unshackled from crossing Russia’s imaginary ‘red lines’. Not providing appropriate aircraft squanders the opportunity to achieve strategic ends after the decision to equip Ukrainians with F-16s sent the political signal to Russia’s leadership that Western leaders were at least willing to test that Russian red line.
Two years of war have exhausted front-line Ukrainian troops. More experienced troops like the 47th Mechanized Brigade have fought intense battles without respite. In June 2023, the 47th – one of the ‘Western-equipped’ brigades – fought a terrible battle at Mala Takmatchka, notably losing a number of Bradleys and Leopard tanks. When the Russians began their massive offensive in Avdiivka in mid-October, the 47th were sent to defend against this Russian surge. The Ukrainian MoD sent these soldiers, who were supposed to be recuperating and reconstituting from a summer of combat, to defend against what may become the largest Russian offensive since the beginning of the war. Many of the civil society actors volunteering to help these Ukrainian units on the front are also increasingly exhausted, getting hurt and/or running out of money.
MILITARY AID
1. The Hill article "Johnson reacts to being ganged up on at ‘intense’ White House meeting"
When asked by Fox News anchor Sean Hannity about the reports of leaders ganging up on him, Johnson said, “Well their reports are pretty accurate. They said that I was on an island by myself, and it was me versus everyone else in the room.”
“What the liberal media doesn’t understand Sean, is that if you’re here in Washington and you’re described as a leader that’s on an island by themselves, it probably means you’re standing with the American people,” he continued. “And that’s what I did yesterday, I reminded the president, and all involved that the number one issue in America is that open border. The catastrophe that we have that President Biden himself designed that he caused and created and I told him, just as I have many times before, he must address it with executive authority. We can’t wait any longer.”
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/44963...
AVDIIVKA
1. UK MOD on Russian advances
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RUSSIAN ECONOMY
1. Newsweek article "China Deals Major Blow to Russia with Payments Ban"
https://www.newsweek.com/china-russia-un...
UnionPay was widely touted as China's rescue operation to Russia after Visa, Mastercard and American Express suspended operations in Russia over the war in Ukraine and SWIFT was blocked. It became one of the only methods Russians could use to make payments abroad.
News portal 66.ru reported that while payment by physical UnionPay cards appears to work as usual, the same cards linked to the Huawei Pay service are refused in Russia.
[...]
The development comes days after three of China's largest banks were reported to have stopped accepting payments from sanctioned Russian financial institutions.
MILITARY PRODUCTION
1. UK MOD on Russian production
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HYBRID WARFARE
1. Decode39 article "Italy Uncovers Russian Plot to Disrupt EU with Protests"
2. BBC article "French urged to watch out for Russian interference"
https://decode39.com/8817/italy-uncovers...
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68...
Even with a conservative estimate, Russia has lost 1/4 of its air force
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Tucker says Putin claiming Nazis are in Ukraine is dumb
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1. ft article "Leaked Russian military files reveal criteria for nuclear strike"
“This is the first time that we have seen documents like this reported in the public domain,” said Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin. “They show that the operational threshold for using nuclear weapons is pretty low if the desired result can’t be achieved through conventional means.”
2. ft article "How Russia war-gamed a Chinese invasion"
CNN article "A breakaway region in Europe is asking Russia for protection. Here’s what to know"
BATTLE CLIPS AND ANALYSIS
1. Ground kamikaze drone
2. GRAPHIC Bradley against infantry
3. Despite loss of planes, Russian bombing doesn't slow down
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MILITARY AID
1. Bloomberg article "Ukraine to Get 155mm Artillery Shells Found in Czech-Led Effort"
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NAVALNY
1. Farewell from Yulia, Navalny's wife
2. Crowd of people going to Navalnvy's funeral chanting "no to the war"
3. “One sacrificed himself to save the country, the other one sacrificed the country to save himself”
4. Another view of the crowd
5. Another
6. Chanting "Russia without Putin"
7. His mother saying farewell and the KM long line
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RECRUITMENT
1. Analysis of PMC, Uranus, fighting for Russia near Krynky
It's possible that the reason for the apparent ending of PMC recruitment may be that the Russian government is trying to simplify the wide variety of military formations in Ukraine, by allowing the PMCs to die out through attrition without allowing them to replenish.
2. Le Monde article "Indians recruited without their knowledge into the Russian army" about Indians who signed up to work in Dubai but were sent to Russia
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RUSSIAN ECONOMY
Moscow Times article "Russian Billionaire Antipov Detained After Steel Plants Nationalized"
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/02/2...
RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA
Le Monde article "The DGSI is investigating an attempt to destabilize the European elections by pro-Russians in France"
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RANDOM
1. Putin election ad showing life without him: Gay Nazis enforce heterosexual ghettos and the Ministry of Justice & Anal Punishment uses dildos to torture anyone for traditional values
2. Mass grave near Izium
3. Minister of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania on Putin, Russia, and red lines
4. "Russia's fortifications in Ukraine will scar Ukrainian land for generations."
5. UK MOD timeline of Russia using energy as a weapon
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RECRUITMENT
Russia continues its stealth mobilization, offering relatively large amounts of money to people from countries where the salary represents a lot of money, and also by forcing some people to fight in pretty sinister ways which are essentially kidnapping. Most estimates are that Russia can replenish their losses in this way, but will not be able to greatly improve their offensive potential with this manner so most future offensives will look like Avdiivka, Vuhledar, Bakhmut etc.
Ukraine signed a demobilization bill, meaning a mobilization bill is likely going to follow shortly. Whether or not Ukraine can actually train and arm 500k soldiers in a timely fashion is a major question.
Macron said that EU troops in Ukraine can't be ruled out. Germany and others basically said this is complete bluster. Others have said that troops should be sent in non combat roles. It all seems very unlikely to me.
MILITARY AID AND PRODUCTION
There's estimates that Russian military production has peaked, and if not then almost all experts predict it will shortly. Most of Russia's production is actually aimed at refurbishment, which won't last forever, is resulting in old tanks being used, and overall lesser quality. This won't last forever, but given how large Soviet stockpiles were, it will last for quite some time.
North Korea has supposedly sent 3 million artillery shells now. Ukraine claims that over half have proven unusable.
Ukraine is producing a lot of drones now, but drones are not a directly replacement for artillery. Russia has been active in attacking Ukrainian production, and no one knows how successful it's been.
EU finally ramps up production. Norway expanded production and is working their factories nonstop. Finland increased production, and also announced that any weapons they give can be used to attack inside Russia. Germany expanded one factory and is finishing another. France and Italy both expanding as well. Supposedly all of this expansion is reserved specifically for Ukraine, while the previous contracts had pre-war obligations to send to other countries.
EU has gathered funds for half of the shells that Czech Republic found. Some of these are allegedly on the way already.
Johnson is receiving more and more pressure to put the aid bill up for a vote, where it is expected to pass easily. Even if the House of Reps has to resort to a discharge petition, that means it's a month away. Dems are supposedly offering to keep him as Speaker if MAGA tries to vote him out. Others are threatening to oust him and put in a more moderate Speaker who will open the aid bill. Biden is considering using his executive powers to send 4bln worth of aid immediately. USA aid is likely to happen sometime soon.
FRONT LINE
Between all of the things mentioned above this means that Russia is going to push their advantage as much as possible in the short term as it might be the most advantageous position they have. Mobilization (regardless of how successful it is) is coming, more ammo is coming, Johnson might not be able to stall things in House of Reps much longer. This means Russia will continue attacking, in often reckless ways which we've seen already with Russia's air force. The extensive bombing campaign is what was credited (along with shortage of ammo) for breaking through Avdiivka. Ukraine claims to have downed 13 Russian aircraft in February, which is a massive amount. They are likely reporting all missiles fired at aircraft as hits, but even if they are, there's still visual confirmation for a lot of downed aircraft. Russia does not seem to care at the moment and is continuing the same rate of bombing in order to press their current advantage.
AVDIIVKA
Overall Avdiivka was a great place for Ukraine to fight for attrition: 600+ armored vehicles destroyed, close to 50k Russian casualties. Unfortunately the more that comes out about the withdrawal, it was clearly botched. Reports range from "it was a more or less orderly retreat" to "our dead littered the streets". It was still a major improvement over Bakhmut, where Ukraine kept fighting for far too long after the attrition numbers began to even out. Still, there's no excuse for the mismanagement of the withdrawal. Syrski has pointed fingers apparently and individuals are being blamed.
Meanwhile there's no clear line to fall back to. Building fortifications is being extremely mismanaged. The military is expected to build fortifications on their own, which is different from Russia which hires private contractors to construct them. Either Ukraine needs to separate this task out so units which are involved in fighting aren't also required to dig and build, or the military needs to be sent far more heavy equipment to actually enable them to create proper fortifications. It looks like Ukraine will do a fighting retreat west to where several bodies of water form a natural barrier, whether or not they have any fortifications there is a major question.
RUSSIAN ECONOMY
Russia stops gasoline exports for 6 months: "In order to offset excessive demand for petroleum products, it is necessary to take measures to help stabilize prices in the domestic market." This is obviously huge since it is a major part of Russia's economy. Considering the constant drone strikes against the refineries it's hard not to draw a connection. There's also been some footage of Russia completely botching their attempts of stopping the fires caused by these strikes, and they do not have the high tech components to repair them due to sanctions.
It's unsure what the outcome of mobilization will be for Ukraine. They are talking about lowering the age of mobilization, but in practice it's always been 30+ anyways. Ukraine has demographic problems where they don't have a large younger population, which is part of the reason that mobilizing this age group is extremely unpopular (aside from the obvious ones like parents not wanting to send children to war). Mobilizing the younger generation is largely seen as greatly harming Ukraine's future for after the war.
ELECTIONS AND NAVALNY
There was supposedly a battle between Navalny's family getting his corpse back from the state, but eventually it was retrieved and the funeral happened today. Considering Russia's draconian laws against saying anything negative about Putin at the moment, it's pretty heroic of anyone who actually showed up to his funeral, and especially for those who were openly chanting anti-war sentiments. Russia can't expect anyone else as brave or charismatic as Navalny again, so this is an extremely dark chapter for anyone hoping for a more democratic Russia.
Putin spent 1 billion on his election, gave a 2 hour state of the union address which was essentially a campaign speech, and has worked hard to make sure he's the only viable candidate. His propaganda through Tucker largely failed and now they're both blaming the other for the boring content it resulted in. Tucker claimed Putin's assertion that he invaded Ukraine because of Nazis was one of the dumbest things he heard, Putin claimed that Tucker giving him softballs made the interview boring because he was ready to come out swinging. He doesn't seem to be willing to back up his words by letting an actual journalist interview him however.
Mark Galeoti had a great quote regarding the importance of the elections despite already knowing the outcome, which is very much in line with the Thomas Graham quote I put in here last week which is even more true after the death of Navalny (speaking about the state of the union address):
It was also part of a wider political strategy to make this the ‘there is no alternative election.' As in Soviet times, this is a civic ritual. This isn’t about the public determining who gets to lead them, it’s about the public expressing their subordination, about the public realizing there is no alternative to Putin and demonstrating that they accept that reality.
BATTLE CLIPS
1. Some vids of armored vehicles after being hit
2. GRAPHIC FPV hits Russian armored vehicle and the troops are struck by Bradley after getting out
3. Baba Yaga dropping a bomb
Spoiler
AVDIIVKA AND OTHER FRONTS
1. Location of Russian armored losses after Avdiivka fell show where Russians are advancing and the costs of those advances
2. Ukraine now firing on the Avdiivka coke plant
3. UK MOD says that February has the highest recorded Russian casualties of the war
4. Graph showing the casualties (I believe this is strong evidence that Russia is pushing as far as they can despite losses before aid from Europe/USA arrives)
Spoiler
DEFENSIVE LINES
1. Analysis of Ukraine's defensive lines (or lack of)
2. NYT article "Surprisingly Weak Ukrainian Defenses Help Russian Advance"
NAVALNY
1. Mourners continue showing up to the funeral
2. Fact checking recent incorrect takes on Navalny
Spoiler
1. Lavrov preparing the ground for annexing Transnistria
2. Pravda article "Moldova rebuffs Russian Foreign Ministry's statement on Transnistria, says it has no right to lecture anybody on democracy"
3. Russian FSB exchange fire with militants north of Georgia
Spoiler
WSJ article "Russians Keep Turning Up Dead All Over the World: A helicopter pilot who defected to Ukraine is the latest obvious assassination, but a range of businessmen, bureaucrats and political figures have also suffered suspicious deaths since the invasion"
BATTLE CLIPS
1. Cluster munitions and artillery
2. Russian patrol ship is sunk by drones
3. Video of one of the hits
4. First confirmed destroyed HIMARS
Spoiler
WAR CRIMES AND HUMAN RIGHTS OFFENSES
1. Medvedev claiming Ukrainian identity should disappear for good to a cheering audience
2. His map of how Ukraine should look
3. Zelenskyy on ICC issuing arrest warrants for commanders who ordered strikes on civilian targets
Spoiler
RUSSIAN ECONOMY
1. A look at how Russia's National Wealth Fund is being liquidated
Spoiler
RUSSIAN STRIKES AGAINST UKRAINE
1. 12 people, 5 of which were children, killed in strike against Odesa
2. NYT article "Russian Strike’s Toll Rises to 12 as Zelensky Blames Air Defense Delay"
[QUOTE“When lives are lost, and partners are simply playing internal political games or disputes that limit our defense, it’s impossible to understand. It’s unacceptable,” Mr. Zelensky said.[/QUOTE]
Spoiler
MILITARY AID
1. CNN article "Johnson gives House GOP’s Ukraine backers room to craft plan as pressure builds for floor vote"
2. The Times article "German air force chief reveals secret UK operations in Ukraine" He reveals, what Taurus could do, how many could be sent, how it would be sold to be public and more
RECRUITMENT
1. Analysis of several of the things Ukraine is doing wrong regarding mobilization
2. Video of Indians asking to released from Russian army
Spoiler
DEFENSIVE LINES
1. A look at one place where Ukraine is (finally) building fortifications
Spoiler
HYBRID WARFARE
ABC article "Russian disinformation is about immigration. The real aim is to undercut Ukraine aid"
https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/russ...
NATO
Reuters article "Hungary president signs Sweden's NATO membership ratification" (Should be the final step)
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hun...
The Times article "Fears German military leaks on Ukraine are just ‘tip of the iceberg’"
August Hanning, Berlin’s former intelligence chief, told the German newspaper Bild that more Nato secrets may have been compromised, after the head of the German air force, Lieutenant General Ingo Gerhartz, was recorded using a telephone line that was not encrypted.
Spoiler
BATTLE CLIPS
1. Bradley firing at close range
2. Footage of one of the sea drones going through water towards the ship
3. Drone filming a drone rescuing a drone
4. GRAPHIC Explanation of how drones are used to attack a Russian position
Spoiler
MILITARY AID AND MILITARY PRODUCTION
1. GOOD READ Reuters article "Inside Europe's drive to get ammunition to Ukraine as Russia advances" Good overview of the efforts to find 155mm artillery and to up production as well as the challenged involved
2. Sky article "Budget's lack of new defence spending dismays insiders and Tory MPs"
3. Russian saying that there is more artillery fire from Ukraine on the front
4. Reuters article "EU aims to shift European arms industry to ‘war economy mode’"
5. Russia releases footage of its new Shahed factory
6. Bloomberg article "US Weighs Tapping Army Funds for Ukraine as Aid Bill Stalls"
7. Map of USA aid to Ukraine
8. President Pavel announces Czech initiative to gather funds to purchase 800k artillery shells reached its goal
SANCTIONS
1. Reuters article "Russia oil fleet shifts away from Liberia, Marshall Island flags amid US sanctions crackdown"
2. Reuters article "Top US official warns Austria over banking with Russia"
3. Reuters article "Turkish oil terminal halts Russian oil business"
HYBRID WARFARE
GREAT READ ft article "Europe kicked out Vladimir Putin’s spies. Now they’re back"
“The game of cat and mouse has returned,” said one western intelligence officer. “Russian activities . . . are as high or even higher than during the cold war,” said another. “Russian intelligence is a huge machine and is back doing what it always did,” said a third official.
First, western agencies stole and publicised Moscow’s plans for Ukraine’s invasion. Once Russian tanks started rolling towards Kyiv, European capitals ejected 600 diplomats, some 400 of whom are believed to be spies. Several Russian “illegals” — agents operating without diplomatic cover — were also uncovered. When Russia’s ground invasion stalled, Putin placed top FSB leaders under house arrest for grossly misjudging Ukrainian resistance.
2. GREAT READ WSJ article "Ukraine Is Now Fighting Russia in Sudan"
When Lt. Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, Sudan’s military ruler, found himself besieged by rebel forces in the country’s capital last summer, he called an unlikely ally for help: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
After the death of Wagner’s leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin last year, the Russian Defense Ministry took control of the group’s operations in Africa, though it is still widely known as Wagner. The Russian Defense Ministry didn’t respond to a request for comment.
NATO
Nato article "Sweden officially joins NATO"
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_...
CNN article "Deadly Russian missile struck close to Zelensky and Greek leader’s convoy" (this is all over the news, I think it's a coincidence, Russia has been firing at Odesa every day for some time now)
BATTLE CLIPS
Ukrainian soldiers near Robotyne fire grenade launchers then shoot at a column
Spoiler
WAR CRIMES AND CRIMES AGAINST HUMANITY
1. 'Zaporizhzhia occupation governor says no Ukrainian POWs will ever be returned back to Ukraine. They will be engaged in penal labor and sent to war to fight against their countrymen as punishment for resisting "Mother Russia" – to "redeem [their sins] with blood."'
Spoiler
RECRUITMENT
1. Indian citizen fighting for Russia dies
2. Indian Express writes that Indians were promised high paying jobs or that they could study at a university then sent to the front line
3. Russian soldiers complaining that they were dismissed from military after being seriously wounded in order to not be paid
Spoiler
DEFENSIVE LINES
Video showing what goes into making a defensive line in Ukraine
Spoiler
SANCTIONS AND RUSSIAN ECONOMY
1. Joe Blogs video "RUSSIA - Turkey & India Stop Buying Russian Oil as USA Increases Crackdown on Sanctions"
2. Foreign Policy article "Russia Is Burning Up Its Future"
3. Business Inside article "Russia's economy appears resilient, but companies are going bankrupt by the hundreds"
Spoiler
ZALUZHNYI
WaPo article 'Former Ukraine military head appointed to U.K. ambassador role"
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/202...
1. Politico article "France finds Baltic allies in its spat with Germany over Ukraine troop deployment"
France is building an alliance of countries open to potentially sending Western troops to Ukraine — and in the process deepening its clash with a more cautious Berlin.
[...]
Séjourné repeatedly referred to mine clearance operations as a possibility, saying it "might mean having some personnel, [but] not to fight."
2. The Hill article "Macron has started something with his brilliant little blunder"
RANDOM
1. Russian "controlled" demolition
2. The Telegraph article "The Dorset tank museum helping Ukraine win the war"
3. Explosions in Taganrog, Russia. There is an airstrip here and last year there was an A50
4. Russian complaining about how conquering Avdiivka was presented
5. Metallurgy plant struck in Russia
6. Russian soldier in Krynky complaining that everyone he knows is dead or wounded
7, NYT article "Crowdfunding, Auctions and Raffles: How Ukrainians Are Aiding the Army"
The Ukrainian government said in September that crowdfunding had accounted for 3 percent of Ukraine’s total military spending since the war began.
AVDIIVKA AND MAJOR BATTLE FRONTS
Last week I said it seemed like Russia was going all out, regardless of casualties, in order to gain as much as possible before aid for Ukraine was figured out. The next day UK MOD said that the average daily number of Russian casualties in February was the highest the war has seen, which seems to support my guess. After that there were several reports from Russians claiming that Ukraine is firing a lot more artillery, and casualties are even higher. This seems to suggest that since Ukraine believes ammo is on the way that they are willing to give more to the frontlines to fire.
In Avdiivka Russia seems to have been stopped, but unfortunately a lot suggests that this didn't happen the way that would be best for Ukraine. Russia has knocked out several Ukrainian s-200s, destroyed a HIMARS system (first since the war began), and also disabled or destroyed 3 Abrams tanks. This suggests that instead of meeting a line of fortifications which Ukraine should have begun building last November (at the latest), Russia has been stopped by Ukraine pouring in the few units that they still had in reserve.
Robotyne has seen a lot of fighting, but no significant gains or losses
Kupyansk, the area before Khakriv, has seen fighting as well and also announced mandatory evacuations.
Russia continues trying to dislodge the Krynky bridgehead, but cannot do it despite the massive amount of equipment thrown into the fight there.
RECRUITMENT
Russia's stealth/crypto mobilization continues. This week an especially nefarious method was revealed: Indian nationals claim that they were promised high paying jobs in Dubai or the offer to study at a prestigious university. When they left India they were stripped of their ids or travel documents and forced to sign up for the Russian military. There is a lot of skepticism of this story, and some suggest that they willfully signed up to join the military after being told they would have safe jobs far from the front lines then they started recording themselves begging for help after they realized they were to be sent to the front. The first confirmed dead Indian has already been confirmed.
Ukraine continues to struggle with getting a mobilization bill passed.
STRIKES BEHIND THE LINES
Russia continues their missile campaign. This week they struck Odesa a lot, which is not really a military target. One day's salvos killed 12 people, 5 of which were children. Another missile landed 500 feet from Zelenskyy's and the PM of Greece's motorcade. I doubt Russia intended that, but it still caused a lot of headlines.
Ukraine continued striking Russian oil, a metallurgy facility, and today they likely hit a Russian airfield.
ECONOMY AND SANCTIONS
Russian information on the National Wealth Fund shows that Russia has already spent half of it. This wealth fund was a major source of pride for Russia and proof that it was a strong, powerful country, that could withstand anything. Russia is running out of companies to cannibalize, and sanctions continue to increase, meaning that Russia is likely to go through the remaining fund at an even faster rate. Turkey and India have both closed ports to Russian oil. Russia already announced that for 6 months they won't be selling gasoline as they deal with internal pressure to supply farmers and also do "maintenance". They had already done a similar pause last year for "maintenance". Now they are agreeing to abide by OPEC+'s crude oil cuts in order to drive the price up, however Russia was already selling at a discount that is below the target price. This seems to suggest that this is all posturing and that Ukraine's strike campaign on their industry is having the desired results.
NATO
After over a year (maybe almost 2?) of being a bargaining chip for Turkey and then Hungary, Sweden was finally allowed into NATO. There's hope that some of their fleet of Gripens will be handed over to Ukraine's air force as they are perfect for Ukraine, probably even better suited than F-16s. As far as Putin's claim that he had to invade Ukraine in order to fight NATO expansion... well Russia has doubled their land border with NATO through Finland, and then ended over 200 years of Swedish neutrality and completely locked themselves out of the Baltic Sea.
MILITARY AID
Norway sent $150 million to procure the ammo found by Czech Republic, and then their president announced that the goal was met. Shortly after Russian soldiers complained about increased rates of fire from Ukraine suggesting that Ukraine is allowing more ammo to reach the front line, likely because they have this on the way. 800k - 1 million shells (it sounds like 200k more was found) is a huge amount since Ukraine is likely firing less than 2k a day at the moment.
BATTLE CLIPS
1. Ukrainians assault trench and take POW
2. Desertcross "golf cart" hit by artillery (Russia began advancing in these lightly armored vehicles which look like golf carts like week)
3. A look at the growing use of drones on the battlefield. (FWIW I don't agree with this guy's assessment, I think it's off due to what kind of footage gets released)
Spoiler
WAR CRIMES AND CRIMES AGAINST HUMANITY
The Guardian article "Ukraine war briefing: Russian forces occupying Ukraine use torture as ‘policy’, says UN expert"
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/m...
STRIKES IN RUSSIA
1. Large fire at St Petersburg airport
2. Gas pipeline hit deep in Russia
Spoiler
RUSSIAN ECONOMY AND SANCTIONS
1. UK MOD states Russia's ban of gasoline sales likely from Ukraine's drone strikes
2. Joe Blogs video "RUSSIAN Ruble is Dead as a Global Currency as Russia Uses YUAN for Trade & Russian Company Debt"
Spoiler
MILITARY AID
1. NBC article "House Republicans consider a loan program for some Ukraine aid"
2. German poll majority of Germans don't want Taurus sent to Ukraine
3. NYT article "Mutual Frustrations Arise in U.S.-Ukraine Alliance" on Ukraine's obvious upset about military aid, and USA being upset about Zelenskyy allegedly forcing multiple fronts
RECRUITMENT
1. DW article "India raids network sending citizens to fight for Russia"
https://www.dw.com/en/india-raids-networ...
AVDIIVKA AND OTHER FRONTS
NYT article "Russia’s Advance Around Avdiivka Loses Momentum After Quick Gains"
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/09/world...
NBC article "U.S. warns of imminent Moscow attack by 'extremists,' urges citizens to avoid crowds"
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/us-...
DEFENSIVE LINES
1. Recently built Russian fortifications in occupied Ukraine
Spoiler
HYBRID WARFARE
1. Foreign Policy article "The West Is Still Oblivious to Russia’s Information War"
2. GREAT LISTEN Mark Galeotti's podcast on Russia turning to organized crime now that they've had 600 diplomats expelled from Europe, 400 of which were likely spies, how they likely were used to murder the helicopter pilot in Spain, how they kept LPR and DPR afloat as independent states, getting past sanctions (I have no idea how important this is as far as the war goes, but it was fascinating imo)
Acceptance speech for 20 Days in Mariupol winning best documentary. Everyone should watch it.
Spoiler
1. Commander of Russian navy replaced
2. New commander for Ukraine's 47th Mechanized
3. Commander of Air Force for Ukraine replaced
Spoiler
BATTLE CLIPS
1. Ukrainian drones striking equipment transports at night
2. Ukrainian Mig-29 shot down
3. Russian portable drone jammer
4. SAM striking a Shahed
5. Ukraine strikes a grounded ship they claim was being used by Russian command
Spoiler
AVDIIVKA AND OTHER FRONTS
1. Russian describing Russia's tactics west of Avdiivka
2. GREAT READ Analysis of all major fronts
Spoiler
MILITARY AID AND PRODUCTION
1. CSIS article "The European Union Charts Its Own Path for European Rearmament"
2. NYT article "Ukraine Could Deploy F-16s as Soon as July, but Only a Few"
3. Reuters article "Trump won't give money to Ukraine if elected, says Hungary's Orban"
4. Kofman saying that the limiting factor for Russian advances this year is likely to be equipment
WAR CRIMES AND CRIMES AGAINST HUMANITY
1. UK MOD on Russification in the occupied territories
Spoiler
BATTLE CLIPS
1. Drone returns to base for a pit stop
2. Multiple S-300 systems hit by HIMARS
Spoiler
WAR CRIMES AND CRIMES AGAINST HUMANITY
ISW on Russia increasing use of chemical weapons dropped by drones
Spoiler
STRIKES IN RUSSIA
1. Another refinery struck
2. Russian partisans attacking Belgorod (really doubt this is much, seems like psy ops for the election)
3. Partisans in Kursk
4. BBC article "Ukraine-based Russian armed groups claim raids into Russia"
5. Russian MOD making outrageous claims about casualties
RUSSIAN STRIKES IN UKRAINE
Apartment building hit, injuring at least 41
MILITARY AID AND PRODUCTION
1. Pentagon sending 155mm cluster munitions
2. A look at projected 155mm output in USA
3. GREAT LISTEN Zeihan video "Russian Bombs Get an Upgrade (FAB-1500 to Glide Bomb) || Peter Zeihan"
Spoiler
DEFENSIVE LINES
1. Fortifications being built near Kharkiv
Spoiler
Russian transport plane has an engine on fire, loses the engine then crashes killing 15 (several videos in comments)
Spoiler
RECRUITMENT
1. GREAT READ ft article "Ukraine needs 500,000 military recruits. Can it raise them?"
2. GREAT READ Ukraine MOD on mobilization
PEACE TALKS
1. Putin saying that now that he has the advantage there's no way he'd engage in peace talks
Spoiler
ECONOMY
1. Fourth Lukoil top manager dead in the last two years
Spoiler
REPLACEMENTS
1. FT article "Russia sacks naval commander after humiliating Black Sea losses"
2. Rumors that Gerasimov has been replaced after he has not been seen for a long time
Spoiler
1. Two Ukrainian helicopters struck
2. Strike on hangar that supplied them
3. Two dead pilots
4. Geolocation of where and what could have enabled this attack to happen
Spoiler
War on the Rocks remains the best resource for the war. Here's cliffs for their most recent episode:
Overview
In general WOTR tries to get a broad overview. They try to talk to the worst, best and everything in the middle to get a full picture. For example the most poorly funded drone unit, the best funded, and medium. Technology and tactics evolves very quickly which is why they try to go every few months.
Ukraine's three major challenges remain the same as when they last went to Ukraine in November: Manpower, fortifications, and ammunition. Military is working to stabilize, but the situation has grown worse.
Manpower
This is issue #1 and likely to be the decisive factor this year. Ukraine has the same problems that WOTR saw in November. Counteroffensive went on longer than it should have. Ukraine was still doing assaults far beyond the point that is was clear they did not have enough forces to achieve any kind of significant breakthrough. They were running through infantry, and resorted to pulling artillerymen, drivers, UAV operators and other roles to make assault groups which were not effective. Ukraine over extended itself.
At that time ammo deliveries drastically slowed down as well. It was always known this would be happen. Ukraine received a one time allotment of ammo enabled by South Korea sending ammo to USA so USA could backfill Ukraine. The rate that they were reduced was greater than expected though.
Either of these is a big problem. Both of these combined, and adding a lack of fortifications, is a major problem.
Mobilization
Lack of infantry at all levels. Losses from November have not been replaced. This situation is only going to get worse, and especially with a lack of ammunition.
Infantry have been there for 2 years. FPVs, glide bombs, etc. makes being on the front extremely high intensity which leads to exhaustion. A lack of rotation is a real problem.
Mobilization has not been fixed. The lack of mobilization in September and October is creating many of the problems Ukraine faces now. Lack of mobilization now will lead to problems two to three months from now.
Casualties
Infantry gets the majority of casualties, and those stack up to create problems. A battalion of 300+ might only have 50-60 infantry. This results in force fragmentation: an incohesive force because in a battle like Avdiivka the person in charge isn't commanding their troops, they're commanding a host of units that are piecemealed together in order to fill needed roles.
Future offensive
Mobilization seems stalled. Once it's done it will take months to train, and even that won't be enough for another offensive. We've seen that a few months training isn't enough to launch an offensive. This means that a 2025 offensive is extremely unlikely.
Fortifications
Ukraine doesn't have dedicated engineer brigades. Farming takes place close to the frontlines, so regional authorities have to be involved.
Ukraine is now actively building fortifications. Ukraine's fortifications are not going to look the same way that Russia's do. It looks like they are building strongpoints, not massive lines.
Russia's problem and strength
Russia seems to have contracted several hundred thousand troops last year. With the money they have offered it seems like they have a major manpower advantage. They seem to have enough ammunition. Their limiting factor is equipment. They cannot afford to keep throwing away a combined arms army worth of equipment like they did at Avdiivka.
Russia can mass troops, ammunition, glide bombs, and equipment in one area, but cannot do it across the frontline. They need all of these to push, if they can't keep these numbers up they cannot advance.
Russia has a lot of glide bombs. They are also able to shoot them from father and father away, originally they were fired from 50-60km, now it's 60-80km. They are reasonably accurate, and so big that they don't need to be extremely accurate.
Russian recruitment
Russia probably managed to recruit 300k troops in 2023. Since they were able to recruit so many they could sustain major losses in Avdiivka. It is likely that Russia can keep recruiting at this rate and continue doing these costly assaults.
One of the big questions was "How are they motivating units to go on assaults?" The answer is executions and threats of executions. It was well known that Wagner was executing prisoners, it's clear that Russia is still doing this now.
As long as a squad leader is alive, the squad will fight. If the squad leader dies then it's possible they break.
Morale is bad, but ultimately Russian forces did not break and often were fighting to the death.
Big picture
Russia is firing at 5:1, and will have a fires advantage for the entire year most likely. If Ukraine's manpower issue is not fixed then it's possible that Russia has some breakthroughs this year which would look very similar to Kharkiv but in reverse.
BATTLE CLIPS
1. Artillery and a Bradley take out three armored vehicles
2. Lancet strikes Ukrainian IFV
Spoiler
STRIKES IN RUSSIA
1. Another refinery on fire
2. Bloomberg article "Ukraine Hits Third Russian Refinery in Escalating Drone Strikes"
3. People fleeing Belgorod and Kursk
4. ABC article "Putin claims waves of drones striking within Russia are Ukrainian attempt at election interference"
5. Russian millblogger on the fighting in Belgorod (extremely unlikely)
6. Artillery duels in Belgorod
7. Old video of Prig explaining the importance of Belgorod
8. Progression of the operation over the last day
MILITARY AID AND MILITARY PRODUCTION
1. France to (only) produce 60k 155mm rounds a year in 2025
2. Foreign Policy article "The U.S. Military Is Running Short on Ammunition—and So Is Ukraine"
“Bottom line is that short of the supplement that we will end up hitting a ceiling,” said Maj. Gen. Joe Hilbert, the Army’s director of force development, in a briefing on Tuesday. “Without the supplemental, we will cap out at about 72,000 [rounds] a month.”
A little more than $3 billion of the total $106 billion supplemental request bill—which has been debated over in Congress for nearly five months, although it passed in the Senate in mid-February—would go toward buying more 155 mm artillery shells and building new production facilities, including in California, Virginia, and Tennessee. General Dynamics is planning to open three artillery production lines in Mesquite, Texas, to provide for the growing demand.
3. Important parts of Macron's speech today
4. Le Monde article "War in Ukraine: the metamorphosis of Emmanuel Macron, dove turned hawk"
5. The Hill article "Johnson signals shift on Ukraine to GOP senators"
6. Ap article "House Democrats and centrist Republicans launch separate efforts to force a vote on Ukraine aid"
Spoiler
PEACE TALKS
Medvedev's 7 point plan for peace talks
Spoiler
STRIKES IN RUSSIA
1. Another refinery hit at night
Spoiler
STRIKES IN UKRAINE
1. GRAPHIC 14-20 killed in Odesa.
2. Pictures of the aftermath
RUSSIAN ELECTIONS
1. Explosion at a polling station
2. Woman dumps ink in ballot
3. Mark Galeotti's article "Putin’s sham election may mark worrying new stage in his rule"
Spoiler
RANDOM
1. For some reason there was a lot coming out this week on Russian war crimes. UN report saying Russian torture was systematic
2. Meduza article '“They may start to oppose” Russian authorities are afraid of children forcibly taken from Ukraine. They are trying to “re-educate” them and put them under strict digital control. Meduza investigation'
3. GRAPHIC 6 minutes of war crimes from earlier in the war
4. 1.6k bodies found near Kyiv a month after the invasion started
5. The Times article "Russia is building an ‘axis of the anti-West’"
Until the start of the war, Moscow had been happy to play China off against the West and sell it what it could, but was reluctant to become too closely connected with a rising power on its own borders. Since then, though, Putin seems to have decided he has no alternative to throwing in his lot with Beijing and cultivating other disaffected powers with redoubled enthusiasm.
Putin also claimed that “no enduring international order is possible without a strong and sovereign Russia”. However, even many in his own elite are worried that, in the words of one Moscow-based think tanker, “we risk sacrificing our long-term sovereignty for immediate gain”. The danger for Russia and the other pariahs is that their desire to develop alternative institutional connections will create a loose new order in which they will increasingly find themselves orbiting the only other plausible organising power: China.
6. VOA article '"The best medicine is artillery" — an interview with combat medic Maria Nazarova' on the desperate state of combat medics in Ukraine
7. Russian propaganda vs Nazi propagandists
8. The Times article "Russia ‘jams signals’ on RAF plane carrying Grant Shapps"
9. Macron talking to Putin 4 days before invasion
10. Macron talking to Zelenskyy after the invasion started
11. 2 year anniversary of the death of a Ukrainian journalist, some pics he took of the start of the war
Spoiler
MILITARY AID
The House of Representatives is getting more and more ridiculous. Johnson has had increased pressure from all sides, but still refuses to bring the vote to the floor. A discharge petition has begun to circulate, but it is an archaic process which is time consuming. Dems were clearly hoping that a Republican would begin the process as that raises the chances of its success drastically, but previously vocal supporters of Ukraine have all been afraid to do so. This week Republican Ken Buck resigned, it's clear that the options for Republicans currently are to be MAGA or to be silent. He mentioned something about the House really hurting when 3 more resign, but it's unclear if that means he thinks it will happen. Republicans have completely lost control of the party.
The discharge petition must be signed in person, and can only be brought forward on specific days of a month (I think first Monday of the month and 3rd week or something) so it's looking like at the earliest this will happen early April. As pressure against Johnson increases, the hope is that he instead puts the vote up himself, preferably in a manner that bypasses the amendment process and greatly streamlines the process. If it's not brought in this manner then it's expected that MAGA Republicans will add a bunch of amendments to slow it down. However it's brought to vote, it's believed it would pass with a huge majority despite 8-12 Dems who would not vote on it due to taking a hard line of no weapons to Israel.
I don't really know what to write about Macron. The Baltic states are all for sending troops to Ukraine, Macron seems sincere in his remarks about it. Overall it seems pretty ridiculous at the moment though.
BELGOROD AND KURSK INCURSION, DRONE STRIKES, AND THE RUSSIAN ELECTION
As the elections start in Russia, the Russian partisans fighting for Ukraine began invading Russian areas that border Ukraine. This is largely a PR stunt, and serves little to no strategic value, and is resulting in the loss of decent equipment and troops. Putin has complained that this is election interference. It's great that while elections occur "Russians are invading Russia to free Ru... to highlight the absurdity of affairs in Russia right now, but ultimately Ukraine could be using these resources and I doubt that spending them for memes is worth it.
Drones have been continuously striking oil refineries, driving up the oil price as Russia is forced to discontinue selling so it can have enough to function. Russia prides itself on its wealth fund which it is now liquidating to pay for the war and will continue to do so at a higher rate since it can't export its biggest money earner. Ramping up these attacks before the election is also likely calculated to highlight the absurdity of voting for Putin despite the many negative things he's caused for Russia recently.
The election itself has already seen some small protests: things like booths lit on fire and ink poured in a ballot box. A protest was planned where people would show up at noon on a certain day and all vote against Putin which was declared unlawful.
MAJOR BATTLE FRONTS
For the most part Russia seems to have slowed down their advances. They continue to attack Robotyne and this week at least once "captured" the town but then gave it up again. They also tried to go through Verbove, which is what Ukraine failed to do during their offensive, which they also failed to do.
Novomykhailivka keeps getting attacked and while that town itself is not important, it is one town closer to Kostyantynivka which is extremely important because it controls the highway that goes to Vuhledar.
Ultimately Russia slowing down and this offensive likely culminating doesn't mean as much as some people claim. One article this week was titled "How the Czech Republic has just stopped Putin cold and saved Ukraine" which is just ridiculous. The ammo definitely helped, but while attacks along the front line have slowed, the lines are weak and undermanned. As WOTR said, the manpower problem is Ukraine's greatest weakness at the moment. As WOTR also said, Russia's main problem was a lack of equipment and recently we've seen a lack of tanks being used for assaults. This means that Russia is probably just throwing cannon fodder forward to keep stressing the lines while saving up equipment like tanks for their summer (or sooner) offensive. Despite things seeming to slow down the situation is still extremely grim.
RUSSIA'S STRIKE CAPABILITY
There's been a lot about high cost targets being destroyed on the Ukraine side. Since the start of the war Russian milbloggers have complained about Russia's slow response time to high value targets. For example the Ukrainian award ceremony last year was struck after 90 minutes. Now things like the two helicopters which were destroyed, anti air defense systems, and other high value targets, which move on a regular basis, have shown that Russia's response down has been cut down drastically. The chain of command has shortened greatly allowing them to hit more targets. This is really bad for Ukraine.
It is believed that in the $300 million package sent by USA that more high tech and longer range capabilities have been sent to help take out Russia's strike capabilities. It's also likely that the major package will have more advanced weaponry to help in this area as well.
PEACE TALKS
Medvedev has been stepping up his genocidal rhetoric stating that Ukraine as a concept should disappear and that Ukraine is definitely Russia. Meanwhile Putin stated that now that Ukraine is running out of ammo Russia shouldn't ask for peace since they're winning. This should make it fairly obvious that he never wanted peace. Meanwhile some Ukrainians were rightfully upset that western media has for the most part not reported on these things, while they were largely placing the blame on Ukraine for not signing a peace deal earlier despite the crippling terms.
STRIKES IN UKRAINE
Russian bombing of Ukrainian cities continues pretty much every day. It's pretty much a daily thing so I rarely include them unless they are particularly bad like the 20 killed in Odesa today. Unfortunately as American air defense becomes increasingly rationed these numbers are likely to climb.
BATTLE CLIPS
1. MICLIC (Mine Clearing Line Charge)
2. GRAPHIC close fight in Krynky, ends with a meme
Spoiler
STRIKES IN RUSSIA
1. Another refinery on fire
2. Belgorod after being shelled
3. Another refinery on fire, vid of drones striking it in comments
4. Russian telegram posts on the strikes on refineries
5. Satellite image of a burning refinery, video of it burning in comments
Spoiler
ELECTIONS
1. Failed attempt at discreetly throwing a molotov cocktail without being noticed and then walking out
(There was a noon protest of Putin planned for today meaning at noon Russians would come to vote against Putin)
2. Noon at Moscow
3. Lithuanian Russian embassy
4. Berlin (Navalny's wife present)
5. Bangkok and a lot more countries in the comments
6. Armed soldier checks in on voters
7. Mark Galeoti article "How Putin will rig the Russian election"
Spoiler
MILITARY PRODUCTION
1. A look at Russian BTRs in storage showing that most of the modern ones have been taken out and Russia will likely be using older and older models soon.
Spoiler
BATTLE CLIPS
1. Ukraine repels IFV push with drones and cluster munitions
2. Chinese Desert Cross being used
Spoiler
NAVALNY
1. Putin on the deal before Navalny's death.
2. Putin says people die in prison in USA too
3. Putin's spokesman making fun of Navalny's wife for not returning to Russia for his funeral
Spoiler
ELECTION
1. Vote stats for the occupied areas of Ukraine
2. A look at this vote and when Russia was actually attempting democracy
3. Mark Galeotti article "Why Putin’s sham election will change Russia — again"
Even by the standards of his authoritarian system, these elections have been a transparent farce. The three other candidates did not pretend to challenge Putin. A serial groper, an ageing communist and a youthful opportunist, they were selected precisely to make the 71-year-old president look not just statesmanlike but the only plausible choice.
Recrafting the government’s core narrative and creating a new elite are not the kind of projects Putin would start were he planning an early departure. Instead they show that this election is not only opening the way to six more years of the same but potentially a term after that — Putin will be 77 in 2030.
This will not mean the extravagant murderousness of Stalinism. Instead Putin’s final legacy to Russia will be the sort of shabby police state in decline that marked the final decades of the Soviet Union.
4. A look at polling results from abroad
Spoiler
STRIKES IN RUSSIA
Map of refineries hit
Spoiler
MILITARY AND AND MILITARY PRODUCTION
1. Analysis of how the West's current strategy for helping Ukraine does not make sense
Spoiler
1. Abandoned Transnistria helicopter hit by a drone
2. ISW on the event
Spoiler
Great listen as always:
Overview
Situation is not dire, but trending negatively. Ukraine is actively working to stabilize the front line and seems to be succeeding here.
Ukraine is dealing with 3 main problems: manpower, fortifications, and ammunition.
They are currently building the fortifications.
They are trying to solve the manpower issue, but this has the longest lead time to solve.
Ammunition is mostly dependent on western support: USA, EU, and Czech initiative.
Manpower
Law scheduled for second reading in a few weeks. This legislation has been extremely slow, especially considering how bad the situation is. This was initiated in November and is still ongoing in March.
3 pieces to the manpower issue:
1. Conducting an audit: Figuring out who they have, who is where, who is performing what tasks.
2. Recruitment process: extremely inefficient currently.
3. Initiating mobilization: changing the terms of service. 70% of infantry get wounded. The only way to get out is to be injured or killed currently. Ukraine needs to create fair terms of service for mobilized soldiers in order to make people more likely to join.
President sent this to parliament. It is a heavily politicized issue. Politics is slowing it down; 4000 proposed amendments. Zelenskyy has not been very vocal on this. Military is probably working on the first 2 issues already, but parliament needs to figure out something soon.
Manpower is the key issue this year. After it's passed, probably a 60 day notice and then training.
If the the ammo issue is solved, it be sent immediately. If the manpower issue is not solved soon then it will be too late for the summer offensive.
Drones
Drones are a useful offset to conventional capabilities like ATGM and artillery, but they are a crutch, not a solution. Far more effective on defense than offensive.
Contest between drones and EW counters are very narrow. A lot of debate on how effective drones will be in the future, even as soon as this summer.
Early employment of strike drones was largely a contest of quantity, but now it's evolving to quality since EW is becoming more effective at dealing with drones. Only a few drones can be on the same frequency, operating in the same space and time. Coordination is difficult, lots of them being used in tandem is difficult.
B]Russian advantages[/B]
Ukraine is managing the 5:1 advantage Russia enjoys in artillery fires.
The added use of glide bombs has been devastating though. Even though they aren't that accurate, they are using 80+ a day at key areas and the craters they form are huge.
Russia also has an advantage in equipment production, repairing and restoring vehicles from Soviet stocks.
Russia has dedicated engineering brigades for building fortifications which Ukraine does not have. Ukraine has these built into their brigades, but they are meant to build their forward trenches, not their second and third defensive lines.
Where does Russia go after Avdiivka
Russia is still making incremental gains, not breakthroughs. It's not clear where the line will stabilize.
They are inching towards Pokrovsk, a major intersection and transit hub. This puts Ukrainian rear areas within reach of Russian drones, which could be why there are more high value assets being destroyed: patriots, helicopters etc.
Russia is still trying to take the rest of Donbas and taking Pokrovsk is a major step. Taking Chasiv Yar is another goal in order to accomplish this since it is an important high ground.
Russian plan hasn't changed. More a question of what the state of Ukraine's forces are in the second half of this year than what Russia will do.
Fortifications and random thoughts
Actively building fortifications. Have a network planned. The line will look different from Russia's. Secondary and third lines are planned as well.
He was surprised to see how effectively Ukraine has managed to create cheap gun-based air defense to hit long range drones. Combined with a network of sensors and EW systems, this is extremely effective against Shaheds and cruise missiles. These could be very useful for smaller countries that don't have massive GDPs to spend on defense.
Threat of execution and executions are extremely prevalent with Russian forces. (Bakhmut did not destroy Wagner. It burst the organization and spread its tactics throughout the armed forces: more prevalent use of cannon fodder such as Storm Z and Shtorm Z, executions, overall Wagnerization of the Russian armed forces.)
Ukrainian intercepts show that money is also a huge motivator for assault groups: wives and girlfriends telling their partners to volunteer for an assault group for more money.
Going out of town for a few weeks so will be cutting back on how much I read and post significantly.
BATTLE CLIPS
"Videos of Russian soldiers watching Ukrainian FPVs strike Russian targets after intercepting their video feed in Kherson Oblast. They are alerting their colleagues what the FPVs are targeting. "
Spoiler
RUSSIAN ECONOMY AND SANCTIONS
Bloomberg article "China Set for Record Russian Oil Imports in March, Kpler Says"
Spoiler
ELECTION
1. Independent observer score vs official score
2. Newsweek article "Russian District Scrambles to Correct Putin's Surprise Election Defeat"
