Ukraine-Russia War Take 2
Here is what the preliminary take on the Ukraine thread disappearing is:
The site was hit with a massive spam attack where hundreds of spam threads were created. In the case where, for example, I see a single spam thread and delete it, that is called a soft delete, and mods can still see them but forum members cannot. Those deletion can be undone.
When a massive attack hits with hundreds of threads, an admin uses a different procedure where the hundreds of spam threads are merged and then hard deleted, where the threads are gone, and no note is left behind. As I have mentioned with my own experience of just soft deleting a large number of posts, sometimes a post or thread gets checked or merged accidentally and is deleted by mistake. Dealing with hundreds of spam threads takes a sledgehammer, not a scalpel.
It appears that our Ukraine thread may have gotten caught up in that recent net of spam threads. If so, it is likely gone for good. I cant say this for sure, and am awaiting comments from admins on this issue. Yes, this sucks. And hopefully there was some other software glitch that caused the disappearance, and we may recover it in the future.
But in the meantime, I have created this new Ukraine-Russia War thread to enable the conversation to continue. Obviously continuity with earlier discussions will be lost. There is no way around that. So as best as possible, let's pick up the conversation with recent events and go from there.
If you have any questions about this, please post them in the mod thread, not here. Let's keep this thread going with posts about the war, not the disappearance of the old thread.
Thanks.
you shouldn't
russia's only exports of note, gas and oil, are priced in usd on the intl markets, meaning that even if payment is made in rupees or whatever (which by the way russia is resisting*) it is the rupee equivalent of the usd spot price which is received, making usd/rub the functional currency pair of their exports
you shouldn't
russia's only exports of note, gas and oil, are priced in usd on the intl markets, meaning that even if payment is made in rupees or whatever (which by the way russia is resisting*) it is the rupee equivalent of the usd spot price which is received, making usd/rub the functional currency pair of their exports
ye but if the claim is that it's the war which caused that, you need some vague idea of counterfactual, and eur going down vs usd implies usd would have get stronger regardless , not sure if my idea is clear.
Basically the fact that the american economy is very strong and fossil fuel extraction is record high in the USA and that chinese trade is less relevant than 5 years ago all would have weakened the ruble anyway even without the ukrainian invasion, or at least that's my take
ignoring basket cases such as turkey (where for several years reducing interest rates was the primary method of combating inflation...) the ruble is among the worst performing currencies vs the dollar since 2022. other oil & gas economies have not cratered in the same way, and their central banks have not had cause to impose capital controls or hike interest rates by 1000bps, without which the ruble would be in the sewage pipe under the basement (rather than on the floor)
there's a clear invasion impact
ignoring basket cases such as turkey (where for several years reducing interest rates was the primary method of combating inflation...) the ruble is among the worst performing currencies vs the dollar since 2022. other oil & gas economies have not cratered in the same way, and their central banks have not had cause to impose capital controls or hike interest rates by 1000bps, without which the ruble would be in the sewage pipe under the ba
ye the size of which i guesstimate using eur/rub; i'd call it sanction impact though not invasion (at 0 sanctions i don't see why the rub would have depreciated tbh)
Ty for Nazi links BGP
I was talking economically and all that. but they are winning the war too.
Mission accomplished!
even in the absence of sanctions or the potential for sanctions, the invasion would have provided investors with numerous compelling reasons to withdraw capital from russia - reasons that existed, but were not as pronounced, before the invasion
Luciom: the far left is small enough that they are not stopping the aid package alone. Also the "morals align" part would not work in that post. The Maga portion is by far the more serious threat.
Bruv, you liberals would side with the maga faction quick fast and in a hurry if world peace or even national health care was ever threatened
Luciom: the far left is small enough that they are not stopping the aid package alone. Also the "morals align" part would not work in that post. The Maga portion is by far the more serious threat.
For now in Congress, yes.
But voters matter and we (I think you and me are aligned in the need for proper interventionism including financing Ukraine as much as necessary for them to prevail against the Russian invader) have a serious, growing problem on both sides of the political spectrum.
While, again, I agree that in the USA congress to this day the problem is bigger on the "maga" side, in Europe it's clearly the opposite (just check Italy or France) , and the USA is moving toward European divides on this topic very fast.
victor is an extremist tankie, but his take is more common by the day in leftist circles, in the USA.
ya but Im proly the only true leftist in USA
Bruv, you liberals would side with the maga faction quick fast and in a hurry if world peace or even national health care was ever threatened
Yes I would side with Maga to avoid word war. I do not know what you think this proves?
Why is your liberal tankie self aligned with Maga now? To justify imperialism and genocide.
For now in Congress, yes.
But voters matter and we (I think you and me are aligned in the need for proper interventionism including financing Ukraine as much as necessary for them to prevail against the Russian invader) have a serious, growing problem on both sides of the political spectrum.
While, again, I agree that in the USA congress to this day the problem is bigger on the "maga" side, in Europe it's clearly the opposite (just check Ita
Makes sense. I was focused on the nonsense with Johnson.
Yes I would side with Maga to avoid word war. I do not know what you think this proves?
Why is your liberal tankie self aligned with Maga now? To justify imperialism and genocide.
no, if world peace was threatened to actually be.
who is aligned with maga? I am the guy who says there should be a cease fire in Ukraine and in Gaza. you are the guy who wants the war to continue in both places.
again, anytime peace is threatened (to actually happen) liberals are quick to side with the warmongers.
Stop using "cease fire" as a euphemism for genocide and capitulation. It's been explained to you multiple times before.
Grossest Orwellianism itt.
Suggesting that Ukraine being put into a position where they can achieve a lasting peace instead of just setting themselves up for genocide and to get invaded again is "pro war" is probably the most dangerous form of disinformation to come out of Russia.
they are going to need to negotiate at some point and they arent getting any stronger. just wasting Ukrainian life at this point.
Russia peaks this year, then it's downhill for them.
Ukraine would probably be in a better position being in a frozen conflict than submitting to the terms of the previous capitulation attempt, not that they could even have done so since it was against their constitution.
It is not wasting Ukrainian life. This is shown in their polls regarding the war. Maybe you think it's better to capitulate and submit to mass executions, forced deportations to Siberia, having their children kidnapped, rape, and all the other things we've seen in the occupied cities, but Ukraine have a different set of values.
none of that stuff is going to happen. Russia is not going to occupy Ukraine. well, at this rate they might soon.
If Ukraine submitted to the terms you say they should have submitted to, then Russia would absolutely occupy Ukraine at some point. I agree they won't occupy Ukraine since Ukraine did not submit to those terms.
Russia is not going at a rate that will occupy all of Ukraine, and this current rate is unsustainable. But at this rate Rusia will kill a lot more people than necessary and could potentially take a major city... probably one of the cities you falsely claimed that Putin would have just given back to them but Ukraine retook after declining to submit to the terms you think they should have submitted to.
Ive never said they should have submitted to any specific terms.
no, if world peace was threatened to actually be.
who is aligned with maga? I am the guy who says there should be a cease fire in Ukraine and in Gaza. you are the guy who wants the war to continue in both places.
again, anytime peace is threatened (to actually happen) liberals are quick to side with the warmongers.
Maga agrees with you on Ukraine.
I want full retreat of Russia inside it's 2013 borders and if Ukraine then moves a finger toward Russia or any other country we can bomb Ukraine, if Russia moves a finger toward any country we can bomb Russia, deal?
That would be a stable ceasefire.
