Israel/Palestine thread
Think this merits its own thread...
Discuss my fellow 2+2ers..
AM YISRAEL CHAI.
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It is ben shapiro so not to be taken too seriosuly. Sounds ridiculous.
Biden is struggling. he seems to genuinely not want loads more people to die but he also probably knows that stopping netanyahu is imposible unless israel gets rid of him
ofc its rediculous. but we know that there is no amount of contortion that these people will do to justify the [strike]genoc...[/strike] mass burning alive of children, mass buring alive of children, mass beheading of children.
now we have ostensible left leaning (lol) anti-Trumpers unironically boosting Ben Shapiro. its truly scary how indoctrinated with hate these people are.
Could be but when people say nothing else is possible it's rarely true in my experience. Eventually soemthign else is going to have to happen and maybe soemone would go for it before another massacre.
The idea netanyahbu will stop at rafah is also a pretty hopeful one.
I don't think stopping at Rafah has ever really been defined as the end point. The end point is someone else (from the Arab world) governing Gaza.
I meant the continuation/escalation of war.
The urban warfare historian (John Spencer) that went on with Sam Harris said he also extensively studied the October 7th attack itself, including studying the Go Pro footage of the Palestinians and all the surveillance footage Israel had, including the footage they did not make public.
First off, from a military perspective he said the attack itself was not a terrorist attack, it was an invasion. The governing body of one land mass organized, coordinated and executed a large scale attack into another. He also said that most people dont seem to understand the scale of the invasion. 4,000 invaders coordinated to attack and overwhelm over 20 checkpoints simultaneously, covered by extensive rocket fire, and once inside the Hamas fighters had clear instructions and mission plans. They obviously happened upon the music festival that had a lot of soft targets they weren't expecting; but torturing, murdering and kidnapping civilians was part of the mission. And the intention was actually to penetrate much further north than they did.
Also, he didn't make any value judgements about the next part, although the value judgements are pretty clear without saying anything. He said he was in the military himself for 25 years, and spent the next several years studying and teaching modern warfare, and he said this is literally the first time he has seen fighters so enraptured to torture and kill civilians, especially women and children. War is very grim business, and the normal human reaction is to be very grim while doing it.
He said the emotional response of the Palestinians was just not anything he has ever seen before in combat; including the celebrations of the civilian populace when they were dragging bodies through the streets. (This is me editorializing, but it really was a spiritual experience for the Palestinian people, or at least the ones who went into Israel on 10/7 and the ones celebrating with them when they came back with their Israeli trophies). He said the closest thing was Fallujah and Mogadishu, and even then that was celebrating the desecration of soldiers/contractors; not women and children.
This is me again editorializing, but I think a lot of people also dont realize how many Palestinians died in Israel on 10/7 during the invasion. The Palestinians lost over 1,000 men themselves. To put it in perspective, they lost almost 4x the number of soldiers in the initial invasion than Israel has in the entire Gaza operation.
Btw did you guys see the Hamas counter from the other day ? The one where they said 'we accept' in the media, but then actually made a counter so ridiculous nobody could possibly accept.
These guys wanna trade BODIES. And in intervals of weeks.
They've attacked the aid corridor almost daily, the crossings for aid, and the American docks for aid. I mean bros....come on.
People in this thread think it's Israel who didn't accept
This is intentional. Like I said, the Biden administration is not happy with how things are going; and this is them sending a clear signal to the Israeli govt. Also, my understanding is the main problem the Biden Administration has is their is no day after plan. What comes next after Gaza is completely destroyed? The Netanyahu govt isn't even trying to figure that part out.
This is intentional. Like I said, the Biden administration is not happy with how things are going; and this is them sending a clear signal to the Israeli govt. Also, my understanding is the main problem the Biden Administration has is their is no day after plan. What comes next after Gaza is completely destroyed? The Netanyahu govt isn't even trying to figure that part out.
That's because biden doesn't want Israel to "occupy" it at all but wants them to make the plan of who will
I know MB is going to say the post is the National Enquirerer
But this really looks like a SNL skit
I'm going on a hunger strike!
Omg the school is starving me!
Lol
There is also the simple fact that the US has interests in the region that don't align with Israel's security. We have vital military bases in the 2 countries that directly sponsor Hamas, Qatar and Turkey. We ourselves send Hamas blank checks of billions. For all intensive purposes, the US is an indirect ally with Hamas itself; and removing Hamas, especially with no actionable day after plan that involves Palestinian sovereignty, is not viewed as being in the US strategic interests.
Hopefully no one actually thinks that Biden halting these arm shipments will interfere with Israel's military objectives, or lead to less Palestinian casualties if Israel goes ahead on its own. Because it wont. It will certainly involve much higher casualties. This is a political move, with the objective of influencing Israel's political decision making, independent of its short term military capabilities.
If we want to talk about things not being accepted, here is the deal Hamas hasn't accepted that would INSTANTLY end the war and save their civilians. And the deal is out there.
1) Return the hostages (what's left of them)
2) Hamas leadership leaves Gaza. They go live their lives out in South Africa or Qatar etc.
3) Hamas can no longer rule Gaza
That's it. That's the end. The war is over.
So when we talk about whose responsibility it is to save lives right now, I ask YOU all that. Usually the side losing in the war surrenders. Where is the surrender? Those 3 points above is how everyone else surrenders in war, granted #2 is actually a better deal than most get after pulling off an Oct 7th. 5
I know MB is going to say the post is the National Enquirerer
But this really looks like a SNL skit
I'm going on a hunger strike!
Omg the school is starving me!
Lol
The more embarrassing, ridiculous and revolting the protestors are; the better it is for Israeli support. This is not Vietnam protests, with "normal" people making reasonable demands. These protests are in large part people with mental health issues making narcissistic displays that normal people have a natural disgust response to.
At UCLA the regime may go after the counterprotestors that phsycially attacked the protestors in the same way they went after the January 6th "insurrectionists." But there is no public appetite for it because the American people by and large dont sympathize at all with the campus protestors, because their behavior is so repulsive.
If we want to talk about things not being accepted, here is the deal Hamas hasn't accepted that would INSTANTLY end the war and save their civilians. And the deal is out there.
1) Return the hostages (what's left of them)
2) Hamas leadership leaves Gaza. They go live their lives out in South Africa or Qatar etc.
3) Hamas can no longer rule Gaza
That's it. That's the end. The war is over.
So when we talk about whose responsibility it is to sav
Hamas main short term objectives is to survive and get their own civilians killed. Both of these are happening, and the US pretending there was an actual ceasefire deal and publicly telling Israel not to invade Rafah greatly improves their long term prospects. So Hamas is not losing the war from their perspective. So why should they compromise at all?
If you want to steelman what the Biden administration appears to be doing, I think you could argue they are trying to leverage the situation into a wider regional alliance to align the the Arab monarchies against Iran and the axis of resistance (Lebanon, Syria, Yemen), much like the Yom Kippur war. And Israel occupying Gaza works against this objective; and if this requires Hamas staying in power then so be it.
Hamas main short term objectives is to survive and get their own civilians killed. Both of these are happening, and the US pretending there was an actual ceasefire deal and publicly telling Israel not to invade Rafah greatly improves their long term prospects. So Hamas is not losing the war from their perspective. So why should they compromise at all?
You and I know that.
But when the world asks for a ceasefire, it's because they view the exponentially different death rates as Gaza/Hamas losing badly aka being slaughtered. In that situation, every sane military that values human life, surrenders. Obviously you and I both know that Jihadis do not operate on that value system.
Btw the other big stunner most protestors don't know about in all this, is Egypt.
Israel and Egypt talk multiple times per day, every single day. They coordinate this whole Rafah thing together.
In the middle east, there's what you say, there's what you think, and there's what you do. And they are always very different (for numerous reasons). Today for the first time Egypt publicly condemned the Rafah operation. But they are 100% for it and participating.
Hamas is an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood. This Egyptian government is Israel's biggest and most reliable regional ally. They HATE anything Muslim Brotherhood. So they're so ready to be rid of Hamas. Nothing happens on the Egypt side of Rafah without Egypt knowing, and giving their blessing.
Remember that over these next weeks.
Mets the Jewish vote is 70-73% democrat (last 4 elections average, and historical average since 1916).
even if it shifts dramatically for the right (like with Reagan who plausibly got like 55% of Jewish votes), can you please tell me which states in this map where Jews are a meaningful % of voters would switch from Biden to Trump?
a very significant shift of the Jewish vote would be insignificant given where they are concentrated.
does that
How Jewish people campaign could swing in swing states, but likely not enough.
This is the biggest failure of the global community. 10/7 was an opportunity to reject the legitimacy of Hamas as a political entity which could've had existential effects.
Listened to a real interesting Sam Harris podcast on the topic of urban warfare. And he brought in an expert of urban warfare, a gentleman who spent 25 years in the military including 2 tours in Iraq; and then transitioned into a civilian career teaching urban warfare at West Point. And as part of his research he has intensively studied every urban battle that has happened in the modern era and gone to pretty much every hotspot to study th
Imma let you finish, but ISrael made the choice to kill tens of thousands more than it had to not limit the risk of their own casualties. If making omelettes requires breaking eggs, break eggs.
LOL, I wasn't around last night because my kid broke his hand. Was in the ER waiting for hours.
If we want to talk about things not being accepted, here is the deal Hamas hasn't accepted that would INSTANTLY end the war and save their civilians. And the deal is out there.
1) Return the hostages (what's left of them)
2) Hamas leadership leaves Gaza. They go live their lives out in South Africa or Qatar etc.
3) Hamas can no longer rule Gaza
That's it. That's the end. The war is over.
So when we talk about whose responsibility it is to sav
Hamas doesn't really want the war to end. They'd love for the onslaught to stop, but if it doesn't, they gain recruitment material. Kind of a win-win.
You and I know that.
But when the world asks for a ceasefire, it's because they view the exponentially different death rates as Gaza/Hamas losing badly aka being slaughtered. In that situation, every sane military that values human life, surrenders. Obviously you and I both know that Jihadis do not operate on that value system.
No. We want a ceasefire because of the deaths & extreme suffering of people
Do you remember Reagan suspended deliveries of F-16s to Israel because of their invasion of Lebanon?
No they suspended because of the bombing of Iraq nuclear reactor, then wanted to reinstate it, then Israel bombed Lebanon so the suspension stayed a little longer, then Reagan gave them the fighters anyway , with like 3 months of delay
No they suspended because of the bombing of Iraq nuclear reactor, then wanted to reinstate it, then Israel bombed Lebanon so the suspension stayed a little longer, then Reagan gave them the fighters anyway , with like 3 months of delay
You start out with no, but then it becomes yes. That's lying.
And Biden isn't permanently or completely stopping arms deliveries to Israel, not by a longshot.
Jewish voters are not monolithic. Biden never really had the vote of the most religious segment of the Jewish population, and he still won't, of course. And he was never at risk of losing young, progressive Jewish voters. He will lose some suburban voters, but mostly in states like New Jersey, New York, Florida, and California where it probably won't make much difference.
I do think that the current conflict creates dissension within the party that is not helpful to Biden, but I think it is more complicated than just saying that Biden will lose Jewish voters.
Politically, he probably is at least as concerned about Muslim voters in swing states like Michigan.
In 2020 biden won 68% of the Jewish vote
A recent poll says he would lose the Jewish vote in New York
I agree it likely won't make a difference in this election. But i think it's a big deal
In 2020 biden won 68% of the Jewish vote
A recent poll says he would lose the Jewish vote in New York
I agree it likely won't make a difference in this election. But i think it's a big deal
Ceasefire talks officially on hold because of rafah
We can ignore the last 2 sentences and the post is spot on
