Russian Invasion of Ukraine
More purges in Russia for being too patriotic:
Spoiler
The memo follows one leaked last month which denounced Igor 'Strelkov' Girkin and other "hurrah-patriots" as a threat to the Kremlin. Solovyov's TV show on the Russia-1 channel was denounced for hosting a nightly "gang rape of the authorities".
The new memo, published by the VChK-OGPU Telegram channel, is in much the same vein. It reiterates several of the same points as its predecessor, dismissing liberals, the left and 'hipsters' as possible threats. It calls the ultra-nationalist "patriots" assets of the West.
The memo complains that the "patriots" spend too much time highlighting problems with the war effort and creating a false impression of a "fifth column" around Putin who "rule our president". This, it claims, is part of a concerted "patriots against Putin" effort.
As well as attacking propagandists, the memo castigates "a large network of feminist and women's organisations" who it says are preparing a "full-scale female hysteria". These, it says, are "ordinary nervous and hysterical women who are afraid for their children and husbands."
Public humiliation for perceived sleights against Russia/Putin (probably won't be posting more of these for obvious reasons):
Spoiler
More explosions on Kerch Bridge; drone hits building in Moscow; CNN article on the drones and Ukraine's propaganda around them:
Spoiler
New fronts and Romanov confirming Urozhaine captured (probably happened a few days ago imo), Russia moving around troops:
Spoiler
Interesting read on the 50 Leopards recently purchased, and why 50 need to be bought in order to field 30. (WARNING TO THOSE TRIGGERED BY DOGS: THIS VILE MISCREANT HAS A DOG AS HIS AVATAR AND THEREFORE IS LIKELY A NAFO MEMBER. If all NAFO posts are this good, then it's really a solid organization):
Spoiler
More Russians begging for proper support; Russians forced to clear a minefield because their commander already reported it as taken. Commander shoots soldiers if they don't attack when told to, 80% casualties for those who do attack:
Spoiler
One Russian soldier told his mother, "If we don’t take Dovhenke, there are three criminal cases now hanging over the divisional commander, he [will be] imprisoned ... It was reported three weeks ago that we had taken Dovhenke. And we, over there, are [still] fighting for it."
Another soldier, Daniil Frolkin, said that his commander in the 64th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade had falsely reported the capture of a forest belt. The man was injured in a Ukrainian attack and had to be evacuated in Frolkin's armoured vehicle.
*****
Edit/MH:
Key:
ALCM: Air launched cruise missile
AFU: Armed Forces of Ukraine
ATACMS: Army Tactical Missile System
CEPA: Center for European Policy Analysis
HIMARS: High-Mobility Artillery Rocket System
ISW: Institute for the Study of War
KA-52: Kamov Ka-52 "Alligator" attack helicopter used by Russia
MOD: Ministry of Defense
Prig: Yevgeny Prigozhin, deceased leader of Wagner
PMC: Private military companies
SBU: Security Services of Ukraine (The law enforcement authority and main intelligence and security agency of the Ukrainian government)
UAV: Unmanned Aerial Vehicle, commonly referred to as drones.
WAPO: Washington Post
Bluegrassplayer
BATTLE CLIPS
1. Drone attempts to hit a turtle tank
Spoiler
1. Maria Avdeeva on Russian advances
2. Potential goals of Kharkiv offensive
3. Videos from one of the border towns
4. Supposedly Russian air defense hit a missile which then hit this building in Belgorod
Spoiler
GEORGIA
1. Georgian protests
2. Methods being used to attempt to repress the protestors
3. Protestors being attacked by police
4. Aerial view of protests
Spoiler
Shoigu replaced
MAJOR OFFENSIVES
1. GREAT READ Best analysis of Kharkiv so far
2. GREAT READ NYT article "Facing Russian Advance, a Top Ukrainian General Paints a Bleak Picture"
3. Russian advances slow after hitting fortifications
So Kharkiv offensive is a double trap :
If Ukraine divert too much forces from Donbass, Russian summer offensive will breakthrough.
If Ukraine does not defend Kharkiv direction, Russian army will advance and capture large portion of terrain, even threatening Kupiansk.
GEORGIA
CNN article "Georgia passes controversial ‘foreign agents’ bill despite widespread opposition"
GREAT READ WOTR episode "RUSSIA’S KHARKIV OFFENSIVE BEGINS" with summary
Spoiler
https://warontherocks.com/episode/therus...
Overview
Russian forces have made it 5km or more inland, taken several villages.
This was a heavily anticipated offensive.
Kofman believes the purpose of this is to draw units to Kharkiv in order to enable the primary Russian advances in Chasiv Yar and beyond Avdiivka. The primary goal is still to take Donetsk.
There is still considerable risk for Kharkiv. Even though Russia doesn't appear to have the forces to take Kharkiv, Russia does not have to advance far in order to bring artillery close enough to force evacuation from Ukraine's second largest city which would be awful for Ukraine's economy.
Forces have already been shifted off the line to go defend Kharkiv.
The attack itself has mostly been infantry with very little mechanized support. Most of the forces are in reserve.
The border was not the defensive line. It was already a grey zone covered by drones and artillery, it was not possible to create and defend positions there. We do not know Ukraine's ability to defend their defensive line however.
It's unlikely Kharkiv will see a major breakthrough, but if Russia managed one they would try to exploit it.
This offensive will play out over the course of a few weeks. We will likely see complementary pushes in Chasiv Yar and west of Avdiivka soon.
Russia military understands Ukraine has a manpower issue which will not be resolved for months.
First Kharkiv offensive
First offensive consisted of a large artillery barrage followed by a peace time force which was expecting to isolate and blockade cities and that the Ukrainians would quickly surrender.
Some national guard units attempted to blockade Kharkiv followed by Spetsnaz that went in and suffered a significant defeat from unexpected resistance. This offensive is one of the defeats that highlights the lack of planning and poor intel regarding Russia's initial invasion. Clearly Russia thought the Ukrainian military would not be a major threat, and Russia would mostly be dealing with protestors and riots after the government collapsed.
By Spring of 2022 Russia was stalled and unable to complete their plan to take Donetsk by first capturing Kharkiv and Mariupol since resistance was so strong. They have stayed consistent with this strategy though: trying to break through to the main logistics hubs in Kherson such as Pokrovsk.
Shoigu
"Shoigu was dismissed by virtue of promotion which is a fairly common form of dismissal in Russia." In practice this is a demotion.
It was long overdue. Shoigu was incompetent and stole way too much (the issue here isn't that he was corrupt, that's expected, but specifically that he stole too much). Shoigu has been there forever and people wanted him to go. Belousov is likely going to be far more competent.
The Russian army was a "halfway house" between a modern army and a Soviet army. Shoigu and Gerasimov thought the army wasn't soviet enough and the best way to fix it was to make a "cosplay" Soviet military, but Russia does not have the manpower, resources, or defense industrial base. Belousov is going to be better at things like defense procurement and does not need to run the actual war. Kofman believes Gerasimov will be removed by Belousov.
This change shows that Putin recognizes that this is going to be a long war. The state will be spending money differently and funneling it to the defense industry.
Russian anecdote/joke being said on telegram: "If Shoigu was in charge of the central bank and the head of central bank was the head of the army then the Russian people would be eating rats but the Russian army would be approaching Berlin." (Purpose is to show how competent the head of the central bank is compared to Shoigu's incompetence.)
Next 6 to 12 months
Doesn't expect a lot to change. Russia will likely retain strategic initiative through 2024. Ukraine is in a state of great vulnerability right now. The supplemental is not a magic wand and there are a number of issues still.
Ukraine needs to stabilize the front line. They need to fix the manpower issues and establish fortifications.
Best case scenario: Ukraine holds Russia to small gains and Russia's relative advantage will decline as they are unlikely to be able to spend as much or have as much equipment in 2025. Even if Ukraine cannot form an offensive in 2025, they could at least threaten one and see how that changes things.
Worst case scenario: There is a collapse on one or several parts of the front line. Reserves are stretched thin. Russian military can break through to one or several of the transit hubs, collapsing the defense of Donetsk. (Kofman doesn't think the loss of Donetsk is a gigantic deal, although clearly still awful.) Ukraine is then consistently pressured so that it cannot maintain defensive lines.
Very little suggests that Russia can accomplish this because they are unlikely to achieve a strategic breakthrough. It seems that Russia will likely be pushing Ukraine out of defensive positions, but at high cost and unable to exploit fully, resulting in Ukraine retreating back to the next defensive position and no breakthrough.
Questions
State of Russian reserves
Russia is not fully committed, they have reserves still. Kofman believes the regeneration rate is not such that they can make a huge force though. Russia's ability to employ the forces is likely not good.
Does Ukraine have the reserves to hold Kharkiv without significant weakening the front line?
No one knows. Manpower is a problem, and will take months to solve. Really need to just see how things play out.
Why did Russia choose Kharkiv instead of strengthening Donbas.
Russia has additional forces for other sectors. The pattern has been to conduct multiple offenses at the same time with several fixing efforts and a main effort. Kharkiv is designed to really strain Ukrainian forces.
BATTLE CLIPS
GRAPHIC Ukrainian vs 4 Russian in very close trench battle
Spoiler
MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS
1. Tatarigami on Kharkiv
Spoiler
GEORGIA
Protestors and police
Spoiler
BELOUSOV / SHOIGU
ft article "Who is Andrei Belousov, Russia’s new defence minister?"
Spoiler
BATTLE CLIPS
1. Russia shells Kharkiv from side of the road in Belgorod, where Ukraine cannot strike back with foreign weapons
2. Drone hit by MANPAD
3. Ukrainians take Russian controlled house, apply tourniquet to POW
Spoiler
MILITARY AID
1. Ukraine presses Biden to lift ban on using US weapons to strike Russia
2. Unclear but potentially big shift on the issue by Blinken
Spoiler
UKRAINE STRIKE CAMPAIGN
1. Destroyed radar system in Crimea
2. Thread on the strike
Spoiler
MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS
1. Village near Kharkiv
Spoiler
BELOSOUV
Thread on his appointment
Spoiler
GREAT READ RUSI article "In Ukraine, Russia is Beginning to Compound Advantages"
GREAT READ NYT article "Russia Has Opened Up a New Front. What Comes Next?"
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/pu...
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/16/opini...
UKRAINE'S STRIKE CAMPAIGN
1. Losses from last ATACMS strike in Crimea
2. Tatarigami on the strike
3. Drones striking oil refinery
Spoiler
MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS
1. Map of Kharkiv and analysis
Spoiler
BATTLE CLIPS
1. Fighting in outskirts of Kharkiv
Spoiler
MILITARY AID AND MILITARY PRODUCTION
1. Denmark's latest package, including F-16s
2. France producing 4000 155mm shells a month (originally predicted to hit this at end of 2024)
3. GMLRS ER contract
4. USA clarifies no change on policy on Ukraine striking inside Russia with foreign aid
Spoiler
RUSSIA'S STRIKE CAMPAIGN
1. Stats on intercepted missiles
2. NYT article "Facing an Endless Barrage, Ukraine’s Air Defenses Are Withering"
BATTLE CLIPS
1. GRAPHIC Mines and drones hit Russia assault
2. Ukrainian airstrike against hospital where Russians were gathering in abandoned town near Kharkiv
3. Krynky airstrike
RUSSIAN SANCTIONS
1. Greece's role in helping Russia evade sanctions
2. Politico article "How Turkey became Putin’s ‘pit stop’ for selling camouflaged fuel to the EU"
Spoiler
MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS
1. Speculation regarding Kharkiv
2. Putin blames Ukraine for the Kharkiv front, says he is not trying to capture Kharkiv
3. Tatarigami overview of all major fronts
4. The day the Kharkiv offensive began Ukraine lost all video feeds
Spoiler
RECRUITMENT
1. 5000 Ukrainian convicts agree to be conscripted
Spoiler
UKRAINE STRIKE CAMPAIGN
1. Hits on an oil refinery
Spoiler
MILITARY AID
1. Reuters article "German minister: Ukraine needs long-range weapons to defend Kharkiv"
2. Maria Avdeeva writing for Atlantic Council "Anger and defiance in Kharkiv as advancing Russian troops draw closer"
3. BBC article "Russia's glide bombs devastating Ukraine's cities on the cheap" (only real means of defense is to strike them while in Russia, which Ukraine is not allowed to do)
MILITARY PRODUCTION
1. Satellite imagery of a heavily depleted artillery storage in Russia
Spoiler
WAR CRIMES
1. Ukrainian underground school so children can learn without having to fear Russia's attacks
Spoiler
GEORGIA
1. Georgian president vetoes bill
2. BBC article "Georgia president vetoes 'foreign agent' law"
3. Protests continue
BATTLE CLIPS
1. Russia striking Vovchansk, Kharkiv suburb, from across the border where Ukraine is not allowed to strike back with donated weapons
2. Glide bomb hitting a building in Vovchansk
3. Russian drone dispatcher unsuccessfully guiding armored column
Spoiler
UKRAINE STRIKE CAMPAIGN
1. Politico article "Lawmakers push for Biden to loosen Ukraine weapons restrictions"
2. Another Russian ship sunk
Spoiler
RUSSIAN STRIKE CAMPAIGN
1. Result of Russian attacks focusing on Ukrainian infrastructure and a lack of air defense on Ukraine's energy
Spoiler
MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS
1. UK MOD on overall state of the front lines
2. Economist claims Russia is attempting to get within shelling distance of Kharkiv and rebuttal
3. Soldier in Vovchansk, mentions inability to strike Russian artillery across the border
4. Reporter in Vovchansk talking about the fighting there
Spoiler
MILITARY AID
1. 12 Congress members ask to allow Ukraine to be allowed to shoot into Russia
2. NYT article "‘What’s the Problem?’ Zelensky Challenges West Over Hesitations."
He also suggested that there was another reason for the West’s hesitation: Some countries were seeking to retain trade and diplomatic ties with Russia. “Everyone keeps the door slightly ajar,” he said.
3. NYT article "Inside the White House, a Debate Over Letting Ukraine Shoot U.S. Weapons Into Russia"
But the consensus around that policy is fraying. Propelled by the State Department, there is now a vigorous debate inside the administration over relaxing the ban to allow the Ukrainians to hit missile and artillery launch sites just over the border in Russia — targets that Mr. Zelensky says have enabled Moscow’s recent territorial gains.
The proposal, pressed by Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken after a sobering visit to Kyiv last week, is still in the formative stages, and it is not clear how many of his colleagues among Mr. Biden’s inner circle have signed on. It has not yet been formally presented to the president, who has traditionally been the most cautious, officials said.
4. McCaul attacking Biden administration over their policy of not allowing Ukraine to strike into Russia
5. Johnson saying Ukraine should be allowed to strike inside Russia
6. Reuters article "UK defence minister says China working to supply lethal aid to Russia"
Spoiler
RUSSIAN ECONOMY AND RUSSIAN SANCTIONS
1. UK MOD on Russia's labor shortage
2. Bloomberg article "Virtually Every Sanctioned Russian Oil Tanker Remains Idle and Empty Months After Sanctions"
Spoiler
BATTLE CLIPS
1. FPV hits house that was storing ammo
2. HIMARS hits EW system
3. ATACMS hit another S400
Spoiler
MILITARY AID
1. The Economist article "NATO’s boss wants to free Ukraine to strike hard inside Russia"
https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/05...
PEACE TALKS
1. Reuters article "Exclusive: Putin wants Ukraine ceasefire on current frontlines"
2. Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs on why Putin is signaling a desire for peace talks now
3. Rob Lee on the likelihood that Putin is genuine
4. Putin says "legitimacy of Ukraine's president has ended" while Yanukovych is present
RUSSIAN STRIKE CAMPAIGN
1. Russia hits Kharkiv from across the border
2. Historic publishing house hit
Spoiler
Mark Galeotti article with The Spectator "Why is Putin purging his generals?"
To a degree, then, this current purge – which is unlikely to be over – is likely performative, a high-profile demonstration that there is a new sheriff in town and everyone better mend their ways. The fact that it is being carried out by DVKR, the FSB’s Military Counterintelligence Service, with Putin’s blessing and Belousov’s approval, is not, as some suggest a sign that the spooks are trying to rein in the soldiers, so much as that this is something that comes from the top of the system. There is always a place for the performative in politics, but the real challenge is moving on to change the underlying culture, not least as Putin’s whole system is a kleptocracy.
Nonetheless, there is an expectation that Belousov will likely have some success simply by cutting down on the simpler and more egregious forms of embezzlement both within the ministry and also by their suppliers, through administrative reforms. One ministry insider suggested ‘he may be able to cut’ the high-level, industrial-scale corruption ‘by perhaps one ruble in four, one in three, if he’s really lucky, and really good.’
In the context, though, when almost every military construction project is padded, where heavy-duty, all-terrain tyres are invoiced for and cheap Chinese replacements actually fitted, and in which shoddy and overpriced contractors get repeat orders by paying off the procurement officer, even a 10 per cent improvement will make a real difference, considering that this year’s budget saw 11 trillion roubles (£86 billion) devoted to defence. Belousov’s accountants may well yet make a serious contribution to the war effort.
Spoiler
BATTLE CLIPS
1. Bradley is hit, troops survive and are picked up by another Bradley
2. Abrams with counter UAV screen
3. HIMARS hit EW system
4. Video of a Russian 6th Tank Regiment T-80BV tank with a roof screen being struck by a Ukrainian FPV in the Avdiivka area but sustaining minimal damage.
Spoiler
RUSSIAN STRIKE CAMPAIGN
1. Zelenskyy on Russia striking a construction market (similar to Lowe's) in Kharkiv
2. Footage from outside the store when the glide bombs hit
3. Security camera footage inside the building
4. Location of the airfield the aircraft took off from (well within striking distance if Ukraine were allowed to hit it)
5. Maria Avdeeva on the multiple strikes on Kharkiv civilians
6. GRAPHIC Compilation of strikes on Kharkiv this week
MILITARY AID
1. Sweden specifically says they allow their weapons to strike inside Russia
2. Russian EW causing several long range missile types to not hit their targets
Spoiler
UKRAINE STRIKE CAMPAIGN
1. Results of a UAV strike inside Russia
2. Several bombs Ukraine is using not performing well against Russian EW
Spoiler
PEACE TALKS
1. ISW on Russia threatening nukes as they claim they are ready for peace talks
2. The Guardian article "Russia begins tactical nuclear weapon drills near Ukraine border"
RECRUITMENT
ft article "Russia’s military seeks new recruits: crime suspects"
BATTLE CLIPS
1. FPV strike against Russian on motorcycle
2. FPV attack on desert cross
Spoiler
MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS
Soldier discussing Vovchansk, near Kharkiv
Spoiler
SANCTIONS
1. Report on how Russia is evading sanctions for cruise missiles
2. Trade from HK and a few countries down significantly
Spoiler
MILITARY AID AND MILITARY PRODUCTION
1. Czech ammo initiative about to arrive
2. Several countries make it clear their weapons can be used to strike inside Russia
3. Politico article "Top Biden aides signal openness to letting Ukraine strike Russia with US weapons"
4. France plans to send instructors to Ukraine
5. USA opens a new factory for 155mm
6. Economist article "There is an explosive flaw in the plan to rearm Ukraine "
Spoiler
GEORGIA
Parliament overrides president's veto
Spoiler
SYRSKY
Military reforms: General staff sending 60% of staff to field units
Spoiler
BATTLIE CLIPS
1. Motorcycle with an anti drone cage
2. Alleged missile strike into Belgorod, shortly after USA agrees Ukraine can strike across the border into Kharkiv
Spoiler
MILITARY AID AND PRODUCTION
1. Joint statement asking Biden to allow strikes in Russia
2. Policy change so Ukraine can fire a little bit over the border of Kharkiv, but not deeper into Russia, and Russia's nuclear threats as a response
3. Germany does similar
4. Russia claims already getting struck
5. Bloomberg article "US Turns to Turkey for Explosives as War in Ukraine Saps Supply"
6. ft article "Russia sources ammunition faster than west, says Prague"
“The production capacity is out there. But it is not in Europe,” Kopečný said. “There are single-digit millions of rounds of ammunition that we are competing [with Russia] for . . . The only thing we need for that is corresponding finances.”
7. Reuters article "Money, not capacity, main issue for ammo supplies to Ukraine, Czech official says"
GEORGIA
1. Thread on the hired thugs attacking protestors, similar to Euromaidan
2. Overview of what Georgia Dream has been doing
Spoiler
UKRAINE STRIKE CAMPAIGN
1. Wapo article "U.S. concerned about Ukraine strikes on Russian nuclear radar stations"
2. Several strikes, one 1200km from front lines
Spoiler
RECRUITMENT
1. Thread on Russia's hiring African men for soldiers and luring women with promises of higher education while instead putting them into drone production
Spoiler
RUSSIAN ECONOMY
1. January through April's deficit allegedly over twice as much as Russia predicted
Spoiler
MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS
1. Russian telegram states Kharkiv advancements have stalled and Ukraine has counterattacked in several areas; Ukrainian says situation is improving
2. Politico article "Hitting Russia where it hurts: Ukraine tightens the noose around Crimea"
RUSSIAN WAR CRIMES
1. Pic of one of the 75 Ukrainian POWs released this week who is malnourished
Spoiler
Russia completes a railroad in Donetsk
Spoiler
BATTLE CLIPS
1. Russian armored column destroyed near Avdiivka
2. GRAPHIC Two BTR's attacked by Bradleys
3. GRAPHIC Russian armored vehicle unloads troops then gets attacked
3. FPVs taking out recon drones
4. Drone hits Russians in a building
5. Ground drone attacking trench
Spoiler
MILITARY AID
1. Politico article "How Biden got to a ‘yes’ on letting Ukraine hit inside Russia" on the decision to allow Ukraine to strike an extremely limited distance inside Russia
2. Ander Puck Nielsen on the importance of Ukraine being allowed to strike into Russia
Spoiler
MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS
1. Russia moving troops, looks like they are about to make a big push somewhere
2. Ukrainian talking about fighting outside Kharkiv in Vovchansk
3. Russian talking about the fighting there
Spoiler
RUSSIAN ECONOMY
1. ft article "Russia-China gas pipeline deal stalls over Beijing’s price demands"
Are these FPV drones off-the-shelf stuff, or are they specifically designed for military applications?
BATTLE CLIPS AND ANALYSIS
1. Ukraine spots a truck convoy and hits it with FPVs
2. FPV strikes on turtle tanks
3. GREAT READ
This brings us to the crux of the fortifications problem: although Ukraine should still be doing a lot more digging and mining there, it's pretty much impossible to build concrete fortifications any than this. Even 10km is a stretch with everything in view of enemy drones.
This results in a painful dilemma: you don't want to give up territory, for many reasons, but you could be fighting a lot more efficiently, saving a lot more of your infantry at a higher cost to the enemy, if you fall back and fight out of concrete rather than mud.
Spoiler
UKRAINE STRIKE CAMPAIGN
1. S300 or 400 hit in Ukraine (there have been several of these recently, likely in preparation for f16s)
2. HIMARS strike into Belgorod
Spoiler
RUSSIAN STRIKE CAMPAIGN
1. ft article "Russia has taken out over half of Ukraine power generation"
https://www.ft.com/content/4d583259-7565...
MILITARY AID
1. German official stating that Ukraine can strike Russian planes wherever (this was not the case before and Ukraine got into trouble by using Germany AD to hit Russian aircraft in Russia)
2. Johnson stating that Ukraine should be less micromanaged
3. Kirby claims Ukraine was never prevented from striking Russian aircraft over Russia (they absolutely were)
Spoiler
MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS
1. UK MOD on likely focus of Russia
Spoiler
WAR CRIMES
1. GREAT READ NYT article "What Ukraine Has Lost"
2. Pics of a guard at Chernobyl who was a POW for 2 years
3. CNN article "‘How do I live?’ A 10-year-old Ukrainian orphan recalls the brutal destruction of his family"
4. CNN article "Survivors say Russia is waging a war of sexual violence in occupied areas of Ukraine. Men are often the victims"
Spoiler
RUSSIAN ECONOMY
1. Russia doubles fuel subsidies
Spoiler
Are these FPV drones off-the-shelf stuff, or are they specifically designed for military applications?
This is an excellent question and a hot topic in the OSINT community. The answer is both, and to many different degrees. There are military drones, there are commercial drones, and there are commercial drones with varying degrees of military adaptations to them.
Ukraine's usage of FPVs was opportunistic and an adaptation of commercial usage. Near the beginning of the war there was a famous video of a tank formation getting hit by Ukrainian artillery. The story behind the clip is that a Ukrainian drone hobbyist was flying his drone, saw the column and began livestreaming it. The Ukrainian military contacted him via Whatsapp, asked to share the feed and then struck the column. This led to the creation of a military and drone hobbyist Whatsapp group where they could share their feed with the military and strike. (Whatsapp and Signal played an integral role in Ukrainian communication at the beginning of the war, which I always found fascinating.)
Ukraine began to to use FPVs more and more, it was possible to make a few a day in someone's home if they knew how. This wasn't scaled up until later on in the war. It also led to Ukraine at first, and then later Russia, purchasing hobbyist drones in mass. There was a famous picture awhile back of a Chinese fair where on one side it said something like "Ukrainian drones" and on the opposite side it said "Russian drones".
At the same time the Bayraktar drone is a Turkish made military drone used extensively at the beginning of the war by Ukraine. It was thought to revolutionize warfare, was a major asset as it could do recon and strike targets, but eventually Russia learned to counter it and it's now pretty much extinct from the battlefield.
Drone operators began strapping explosives onto the commercial drones so they could either fire the drone into a target and cause an explosion, or to drop the explosive above a target. This is still used, and also has become a military produced drone.
The distinction between these types of drones quickly began to blur. The main type of drones being used now are these:
FPV types: commercial Chinese ones used for recon and light bombers,
Rotor drones: commercial drones with a munition strapped on for heavier bombings
FPV strike drones: also commercial with military modifications so it can strike a target
larger wing drones: military similar to Bayraktar
loitering munition: can be a commercial rotor drone with a munition strapped on, or a military designed one like the Baba Yaga
Drone warfare has evolved constantly since the start of the war, and every 6 months or so looks drastically different.
This Drone business is fascinating. I know of some of the DIY R&D going on in the People's Republic of Texas and this whole field is growing exponentially.
BATTLE CLIPS
1. Ukraine assaults Russian positions from short range with 30mm
2. Rusian BTR his by Bradley 25mm
3. Motorcycle with a tarp hit by drone
4. Drones hitting tanks with anti-drone measures
5. Motorcycle with anti-drone measures
6. Ukrainian soldier is injured, drone spots him and he was saved
7. GREAT WATCH Attack on Russian armored column. Front and rear vehicle are knocked out then the ones in the middle.
8. Close combat trench battle with drone helping
9. Drone finds Russian drone team and strikes
Spoiler
MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS
1. Assessment that so far Russia's Kharkiv offensive has been a failure
2. Assessment that Kharkiv has yet to help Russia's main effort at Chasiv Yar
Spoiler
RECRUITMENT
1. GREAT READ WAPO article "Basic training in Ukraine is barely covering the basics, commanders say"
2. New Voice of Ukraine article on Ukrainian ministries competing for workers and recruits
3. Politico article "Macron to ‘finalize’ plans to send Western trainers to Ukraine"
RUSSIAN ECONOMY
1. Economist explains the future of Russia's economy
Spoiler
RUSSIAN STRIKE CAMPAIGN
1. Ukraine energy infrastructure threatens another wave of refugees
2. Claim that Russia's glidebombs are becoming less effective due to EW
3. BBC article "'Spy mania': Why is Russia accusing its own physicists of treason?"
UKRAINE STRIKE CAMPAIGN
1. RUSI article "Damaged Su-57 Emphasises the Vulnerability of Russian Airbases Near Ukraine"
2. Confirmation that a patriot destroyed the A-50 in January
Spoiler
GEORGIA
1. USA imposes sanctions on Georgia
Spoiler
PROPAGANDA
1. Russia's head propagandist saying Russia could eventually destroy UK
Spoiler
ZELENSKYY
1. Zelenskyy at D-Day anniversary
Spoiler
AZOV
1. WAPO article "U.S. lifts weapons ban on Ukrainian military unit"
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-...
WAGNER
1. BBC article '“Immoral, but effective”: how and at what cost the Wagner PMC captured Bakhmut' Nearly 20k KIA, 88% of which were convicts
Spoiler
English link: https://bbcrussian.substack.com/p/how-wa...
BATTLE CLIPS
1. Trench battle near Kharkiv
2. Russian filming as vehicle is struck by drone
3. Captured barn tank
4. Drone hits tank with soldiers riding on top
5. Another
6. Ukrainian air force bombs Russians outside of Kharkiv where they are allegedly surrounded
7. Drone delivers drone
8. Interview from commander of Bradley that took out BTR in close combat
Spoiler
MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS
1. GOOD READ The time article "‘This is like Gallipoli’: inside Ukraine’s hardest battle yet"
https://www.thetimes.com/article/87d6dc5...
RUSSIAN RECRUITMENT AND UKRAINE RECRUITMENT
1. Sri Lanka complaining about citizens being duped into joining Russian military
2. BBC article "Conscription squads send Ukrainian men into hiding"
RUSSIAN ECONOMY AND UKRAINE ECONOMY
1. Meduza article "Russia’s largest stock exchange has stopped trading in U.S. dollars and euros. What does this mean for the ruble?"
2. Bloomberg article "G-7 Agree How to Tap Frozen Russian Assets for $50B to Ukraine"
3. Inflation adjusted wages in Russia
MILITARY AID
1. USA self audit reveals DoD overcharged Ukraine 2 billion
2. WAPO article 'Biden, Zelensky to sign 10-year U.S.-Ukraine security deal at G-7 summit'
BATTLE CLIPS AND ANALYSIS
1. TOS or glide bomb strikes in Vovchansk
2. Ukrainian small diameter bomb strikes near Vovchansk
3. Russian UAV hits Ukrainian Baba Yaga
4. New Russian drone which is doing a lot of damage
5. GOOD READ Analysis of Ukraine using FPVs to destroy Russian fixed wing drones (video in the comments)
6. Trench warfare near Kharkiv
7. Drone dropping bombs from 200m
8. Glide bomb strike
Spoiler
PEACE
1. Putin's ultimatum for a ceasefire which includes giving up areas Russia does not control, no NATO, and lifting all sanctions
2. GREAT READ "STOLYPIN: West needs to talk seriously about Ukraine"
Spoiler
RECRUITMENT
1. GREAT READ rferl article "For Some In Russia's Far-Flung Provinces, Ukraine War Is A Ticket To Prosperity"
2. Somali mercenary discussing why he joined Russia
Spoiler
WAR CRIMES
1. ft article "FT investigation finds Ukrainian children on Russian adoption sites" (seems like a dead link now, here's the archive: https://archive.is/OAULL)
2. Russia hits residential building in Kharkiv, propagandists claim they were trying to strike a nearby hospital instead
Spoiler
MILITARY AID
1. Politico article "US says Ukraine can hit inside Russia ‘anywhere’ its forces attack across the border"
“This is not about geography. It’s about common sense. If Russia is attacking or about to attack from its territory into Ukraine, it only makes sense to allow Ukraine to hit back against the forces that are hitting it from across the border,” Sullivan said.
2. Yonhap article "S. Korea's level of arms supply to Ukraine hinges on Russia's actions: presidential office"
3. ft article "US to redirect Patriot air defence orders to Ukraine"
NORTH KOREA
1. Putin threatens South Korea
Spoiler
EU
1. Zelenskyy on EU membership
Spoiler
BATTLE CLIPS AND ANALYSIS
1. 3000kg glide kit bomb and Fighterbomber's thoughts on it as well as EW
2. 3000kg bomb
3. ATACMS launch
Spoiler
WAR CRIMES
1. BBC article "ICC issues arrest warrants for Russian officials"
2. Gas grenades dropped followed by FPVs
UKRAINE STRIKE CAMPAIGN
1. Ukraine strikes Russian space tracking center
2. Ukraine missile is intercepted in Crimea and kills Russian tourists.
3. Lower yellow circle is the Russian naval base. Upper yellow circle is an airfield. Red circle is where Russians are told they can vacation.
4. Reuters article "Russia promises retaliation against US for Ukraine strike on Crimea" (all over Russian propaganda they are saying this USA's fault)
RECRUITMENT
1. GREAT READ A look at what is offered to Russian recruits
Spoiler
EU
1. Ukraine and Moldova formally begin accession talks with EU
Spoiler
HYBRID WARFARE
1. WSJ article "Russian Saboteurs Behind Arson Attack at German Factory"
A month ago you wrote that Russia's advantages are compounding, do you still feel that way?
Yes. They are able to gain ground incrementally due to Ukraine's diminishing manpower while Russia is able to keep up pressure.
AD is lacking while Russia's missile production is increasing and they are able to find more and more gaps.
The trend is moving in Russia's favor, they are producing more equipment and troops, but sometime next year that's likely to stop.
If Ukraine can reconfigure their training system that will help. If Ukraine's allies can produce more then the equipment advantage could change sooner too.
Is the training being provided for Ukraine insufficient, and is this causing fewer volunteers?
Ukraine's force regeneration strategy is different from NATO's. Ukrainians receive basic training quickly, this consists only of physical training, and recruits are then sent to their unit. NATO teaches tactical training during basic.
When NATO trainers say that training is inadequate it is usually with this framework in mind, where they expect soldiers to exit basic with tactical training.
The western training is very relevant. Some of the criticisms are political in nature: if a Ukrainian were to die during training in a western country due to live ammo exercises then it would be a mess. Ukrainian trainers see this and say it's not relevant which is not true. They do get this training in Ukraine but the rate of accidents is much higher.
Western trainers do not have engagement with the brigade commander that they need. This does result in some training where the brigade commander does not understand the drills his new recruits have done or the training doesn't prepare them to align with how the unit operates.
The West struggles to understand the scale of fighting with 500k troops. It takes a lot of time to send recruits to the west, train them, and send them back. It's also not feasible to have them train with their equipment since it's needed in Ukraine. Training in Ukraine helps with this.
Russia's rate of loss for both soldiers and equipment doesn't seem sustainable
A lot of casualty numbers aren't accurate. When they are accurate there's also often a lack of nuance: for example 85% of Wagner casualties had a few weeks of training. Casualties of trained soldiers were around 20-40 a week, this did not degrade Russia's armed forces. Russia's troop levels have expanded during the conflict. They invaded with 150k troops, with levies in DPR and LPR raising this to 200k or so. They are now at around 510k troops despite their losses. They are still surpassing their recruitment goals.
Where they've felt the losses more is with officers which prevents Russia from scaling or performing anything advanced.
Equipment losses are such that they can sustain what they're doing this year. Next year they will begin running into problems. Russia can still inflict a lot of damage until then.
Russia will never be in a position where they can't regenerate enough vehicles. Russia is currently manufacturing per year the amount of tanks that UK will purchase in the next decade. This is 15% of what they field, the rest is refurbished. When they run out of what they can refurbish this will go up. This is significantly less than what they're using now and will constrain them, but this kicks in late 2025, early 2026. If the conflict is frozen before then then it's not going to be a major issue.
This year they will produce 150-200 tanks and refurbish 1300 or so. They can also recover a lot of claimed losses which aren't catastrophic.
## What is the theory of victory for Ukraine?
Bring about a lasting peace.
Ukraine must have security guarantees, currently countries aren't saying what they're willing to do. This means Ukraine does not have a strong position to freeze the conflict and keep it frozen. Once Ukraine is confident in this then they can begin thinking about what they need as far as territory to remain viable economically.
After that they need to consider how to convince Russia to agree to peace. Russia thinks they can win, and is not interested in any concessions currently. Long term Russia is building up a lot of problems so they might reconsider. This will eventually become an issue of who has more leverage.
Since Ukraine doesn't have these important things, Russia is only interested in a ceasefire in an attempt to isolate Ukraine from its partners. Since Ukraine doesn't know what the west is willing to offer for several key things, it's difficult for Ukraine to formulate a theory of victory.
Once there's a publicly fixed plan, Russia can then manipulate that and also make that goal as costly as possible. This is what happened in Bakhmut.
(Kind of an aside) NATO is anticipating the need to deter Russia conventionally before the end of the decade. Sending aid to Ukraine doesn't really harm this as production is increasing due to Ukraine and this will eventually help NATO's depleted arms.
Russians are in a position where they see the downsides of war, but they also don't see a better solution so things will continue on.
Kharkiv
Russia massed 40k troops but didn't send them all. Since they still hold reserves they can use them elsewhere.
Depopulating Kharkiv would have been devastating, Russia did not succeed. They did succeed at pulling in Ukrainian reserves. Russia is continuing to make progress in the south.
Ukrainian counterattacks have been effective, and they've gotten permission to strike over the border.
It's hard to rate this as a win or loss at this moment.
Will mobilization improve the situation?
Three manpower problems:
1. battlefield replacements and bringing units back to strength
2. forming new units
3. regenerating offensive combat power
There's an immediate shortage. Replacements that help the first issue will be worse trained than the rest of their unit and will not have much offensive potential. The risk Ukraine runs now is that the immediate need to solve the first issue hurts Ukraine's ability to fix the second and third issue.
The rest of 2024
Aid package has bought time, but things are still bleak.
Production needs to increase, as well as solving supply chain issues.
Training and force generation need to improve.
We risk repeating the previous errors committed: talking a lot and waiting to long to actually implement.
Decisions need to be made this summer, as soon as possible
BATTLE CLIPS
1. Russia employing scooters
2. North Korean ammo misfires
3. Thermal drone
4. Drone dropping medical supplies near Kharkiv
Spoiler
MILITARY AID
1. NATO countries to donate 3 more patriots (1 arrived already I think)
Spoiler
FINANCIAL AID
1. Reuters article "NATO members agree €40 bln financial pledge for Ukraine - diplomat"
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/nat...
RUSSIAN ECONOMY
1. Graph showing Russia's military spending
2. Time it takes Russia to spend 1 trillion rubles
Spoiler
UKRAINE STRIKE CAMPAIGN
1. Drone hits target 350km from front line
2. Radar station hit by HIMARS
Spoiler
RUSSIA STRIKE CAMPAIGN
1. Russian missile hits Ukrainian airfield
2. Ukraine energy company says Russia has destroyed 90% of their thermal power generation capacity
3. Kharkiv without power for 12 hours
Spoiler
RECRUITMENT
1. Russian blogger explains Russia's recruitment problems are as bad as Ukraine's
2. Polls show falling support for the war in Russia
Spoiler
MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS
1. Update near Kharkiv
2. GREAT READ Update on Kharkiv
3. Ukraine withdraws from canal in Chasiv Yar (important location they've lost before)
