2024 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

paper hand pussy reporting in

I have no arguments against him making to be the Dem nominee come November, but he's not beating Trump. People are going to vote with their wallets like always and whether you want to debate whether it's his fault or not or "oh we're doing better than France and Italy" people in the US aren't moved by that narrative. Every day the average person goes to the grocery store, or fills up their car with gas, pays their mortgage, electricity bill etc is what most average people will vote on. These prices all are disastrous under Biden vs 4 years ago.

Biden has the lowest black support in history of any Dem candidate in 60 years and a worse approval rating than Jimmy Carter. Youth voters have swung to Trump. Hispanics too. The party labeled as "middle aged white people" is now comprised of a significant enough percentage of minorities and youth mixed with a candidate with the lowest approval rating of an incumbent since Jimmy Carter and even worse. He's losing every battle ground state that he won in 2020. All of Trump's trials are halted as the only dirty politics tactic they had up their sleeve to stop him from running. How exactly to you foresee Biden winning vs Trump? That's too much lack of support from the demographics they pander to once every 4 years and depend on their vote mixed with the daily life of cost on most people's minds to overcome.

Welcome to 1968

Trump -240 on bookmaker now. About a 50c jump.

Well trump bring targeted in a shooting but being completely fine is literally the worst thing they could possibly happen to the D side now his I'm a victim spiel looks legitimate.

Unless he flies off the deep end and it radicalises him into saying insane **** like lock up all democrats or ban all guns or whatever that is literally the best thing that could have possibly happened for Trump politically

Maybe Election Day still being 4 months away mitigates the effect this will have? Trump I think was going to win regardless but this certainly helps...

If this is the last of the bat crazy stuff I will be pleasantly surprised. But I have my doubts...

biden nom is steaming up on this shooting attempt

Biden wasn't dropping out regardless as i've said all along but obviously this makes it slightly less likely too.

Obviously this also massively boosts Trump's general election chances due to a combination of sympathy vote and it plays into his 'i'm a victim everyone's out to get me' narrative. Today is the first time i've thought Trump is a small favourite in the election. Not enough that I think the -200ish line is +EV this far out but I legitimately did not make him a favourite until today at all despite the market. He can definitely still lose though, a lot depends on whether he can be Presidential about this or starts ranting about how Biden tried to kill him/it's all the deep state/we should lock up all Democrats/we should ban all guns or whatever whether it's a huge boost or one that'll fade over several months. If the election was this week though obviously he'd win now whereas prior to this I wouldn't have been so sure.

Pretty sick how hot Trump runs to be honest electorally with this, a few inches one way and he's dead, a few inches the other way and the bullet doesn't hit him and its a 1-2 week story not a defining campaign moment and the shooter was so far away the tiniest bit of wind or aim and the bullet either kills him or misses him entirely. It's literally THE best thing that could possibly have happened to Trump is a non-serious, non-lethal wound in an assassination attempt

Interesting reports i'm reading are that the guy was a registered Republican, will be interesting to see if he tried to kill Trump because he's too right wing (eg a Haley/Romney supporter type who doesn't want him controlling 'his' party), or tried to kill Trump because he's not right wing enough (like a full on Proud Boys/Neonazi type who thinks Trump isn't right wing enough). Will also be interesting to see if those reports are actually true as people love to jump to conclusions too early

This is probably going to get pushback from partisans, but Trump ran awful in 2020 once covid hit US shores. A black swan that there was little he could do to prevent the damage of and likely cost him the election.

I do think people are overrating how much this helps him though. It grazed his ear and he's fine and the election isn't for 4 months which is an eternity nowadays. It will be a close election either way. We just had an election with Biden as Prez like 19 months ago where the Dems performed great vs historical midterm standards.

Nowadays people look at things and think wow Trump is so lucky. But you know, Americans used to use a phrase to describe events like yesterday... Divine Providence.

God bless America.

Agreed. It is a different permutation than it not happening, but the arsenal of moves available are virtually countless.

Losing a Presidential election used to be a death knell for politicians, Trump just defied gravity yet again to get the nomination so easily. But there's little reason to think any other politician could pull it off.

of course boosts trumps election odds. unclear to me how much it benefits biden's nomination odds. for sure reduces the likelihood a contender will step forward as a sacrificial lamb, but it also further lowers biden's prez odds and incentivizes a wildcard dark horse candidate who can shake up the narrative. if there's one thing i've learned this cycle it's that the biden nomination odds are extremely myopic and predicated on today's headlines. personally feel the next few days will be ripe for getting in on biden NO nomination because they're naturally going to wait until after RNC before making moves

and God bless you, TomG [emoji1360]

He'll get a nice bump in the polls for awhile like Reagan did but that bump will go away by election day cause we all have zero attention span. That said, I think he's actually still a little bigger favorite than the markets have as I've felt all along this election is going to be a lot like 1980, lots of parallels to that year, we're way too polarized as a population for 1984's.

everyone pointing fingers on blaming forgot in the US people shoot at presidents all the time including a bunch when media was just one local newspaper.

Trump does have a horseshoe up his ass in luck though.

80 feels like a good comparison. Anderson got 6.6% and I can easily see Kennedy in that range. He's polling higher than that since the debate but I don't know if those intentions hold up in the booth.

Kennedy isn't going to be a major factor, he has a D surname but R-adjacent beliefs, most of the people who vote for him weren't going to vote for Trump or Biden anyway

Kennedy has a 0% chance to win and will almost certainly underperform his polling, his core constituency is anti-vaxxers and conspiracy theorists who are on average more likely to vote for Trump then he'll get some low-info independents I guess and a handful of low-info progressives who know nothing about him but worship the family name but that's gotta be a very negligible share of voters drastically under 1%

I'd be surprised if he polls much over 5% nationally in the end despite running against two historically unpopular candidates and he's not gonna get 10%

A 'good' independent could maybe get 10% this cycle but not the conspiracy theory worm ate part of my brain guy because he doesn't have a base outside of fringe wackos once people actually learn about his beliefs

The main reason I think he won't be a huge factor is he shouldn't substantially draw support from one side more than the other - he's a 'Democrat' (or was) in name only and if not for his surname nobody would care at all, but his beliefs align more with the conspiracy-wing of the Republican party, that said why would most of them vote for him when they can vote for Trump instead.

I think he will 'underperform' relative to expectations and expectations are already low.

Only2days - While Covid was obviously a black swan event, Trump's handling of it was extremely bad compared to the leaders of most other countries, so most of the damage he took was self inflicted. Calling it not serious and acting like it was a hoax or would go away on its own when most Americans ended up affected by it one way or another was not a good idea and was entirely self inflicted. He made his fair share of ridiculous gaffes and in general Americans had a worst time than people in most other first world countries during Covid. Plenty of politicians worldwide got re-elected during Covid if their response to the crisis was decent. In Australia it was a mix, our federal government lost due to our Prime Minister at the time going off the rails, our state Premiers (governor equivalent) the ones that had a good response for the most part won re-election and the ones that had a bad response for the most part lost. I happened to be in one of the best places in the world during covid (Queensland) and the experience here was vastly different to what most other people experienced it was basically life as normal with some quarantine requirements on interstate/international travel and that was it then we reopened borders when everyone who wanted to be vaccinated was and life went on as normal the entire time.

Anyway, Biden to be D nom is -250 again, I probably should have added a ton more at +240 just to trade out and keep max risk on and improve my average price but whatever, I have some, it's going to win, and then we can move onto the general and people can think twice about how much of a lock it is that he 'was going to be replaced' when it was never going to happen and reconsider what media they're consuming

(or I get to look super dumb if i'm wrong, but i'm not)

It's like every time the media gets hyped about 'THERE MIGHT BE A BROKERED CONVENTION FOLKS' and then there isn't. It would be unprecedented for Biden to be replaced at this point because of a bad debate, that has always been the case and unprecedented things are very unlikely to happen, not over two thirds to happen like the market thought at peak.

Trump's chances to win went way up this week because of how hot he ran with the failed assassination attempt grazing him but not hurting him is literally the best thing that could have happened, but it only makes him a tiny fav at this stage not the -2xx fav the market thinks. That said, this week is the first time in the cycle I think trump is currently a tiny favourite, but I think the Biden side is still the EV side at current prices in the general. Not getting involved at this stage beyond Biden to win D nom though. A lot will come down to whether Trump can act Presidential post-assassination attempt or if he uses it as an excuse to go even further off the deep end than he normally does.

If the election was today Trump would win, but it isn't, it's in several months and a lot of the fundamentals are in Biden's favour still and Trump is definitely enough of a loose cannon to blow his current small lead. Way too far out to know at this stage. Obviously depends how both candidates perform over the rest of the campaign too.

Do you think if Kennedy was going to throw in the towel he'd more likely support D or R? I think D but I'm not sure. Wonder if he could be swayed by one side over the other with a cabinet position or something.

Trump/Republican by a wide margin but it's very unlikely he endorses anyone. His family is embarrassed and ashamed of his beliefs and would love nothing more for him to drop out before he damages the Kennedy name any more than he has, he's a Democrat in name only because of his family (and has since become an Independent), he would be vastly more likely to endorse Trump of the two, but won't endorse either because it defeats the purpose of him running. He's not going to endorse anyone and isn't going to be a major factor.

Trump might give him a cabinet position, 0% chance Biden or any D nominee would. I'd say there's a low single digit chance he endorses Trump and a sub 1% chance he endorses Biden but he'd be probably like 2% to Endorse Trump, 0.x% to endorse Biden and 97%+ to not make any endorsement this cycle of an opponent.

Most RFK Jr fans who like both him and Trump will vote for Trump anyway. Nearly no Democrats are voting for him and any Independents who are voting for Kennedy over Trump or Biden were never voting for either of them anyway

I don't think he hurts either candidate substantially in the way that Greens voters would mostly vote for a Democrat and Libertarian voters would mostly vote Republican if there wasn't a candidate of their party in the race (the ones that would still vote anyway).

RFK's 'base' is a small collection of low info voters, antivaxxers who make it their entire personality and fringe conspiracy wackos that don't specifically skew left or right, if anything they'll skew more right than left but he's one of those not really on the traditional political spectrum candidates. He'll get a few low info bOtH sIdEs ArE eQuAlLy BaD protest votes too, but those people were never voting for a Democrat or a Republican anyway and would either not vote or park their vote on whoever the third party candidate of the cycle is to be contrarian anyway.

I don't think he's going to swing the election one way or the other.

There is free money and massive EV plays on Bovada for the Republican National Convention if anyone plays there.

Will Trump mention in his speech:

MAGA -1400. Free money (MAGA is the title of the Republican Platform)
Seal the border -125. Free money (this is a major platform item and SEAL THE BORDER is in all caps)
A nation in decline +200. Near free money (this is prominent in the platform and also in all caps)
Fight. Fight. Fight +300. High EV play at +300 (this will become a catchprhase)

There are many more.

I apologize if people don't post such things anymore or if no one uses Bovada. Please delete if improper.

I was a pro who used this forum from 2005-2012 under the name Utah. We used to post such prop picks here and they were a steady source of monthly income. I stopped betting in 2012 with the Pinnacle LV arrests and when one of my partners was raided by the FBI. That was enough. But I still follow lines and find opportunties purely out of habit.

good stuff, welcome back

would love to hear more about the bolded

Tailed, thanks...

Here is a write up on the arrests from the FBI. It was not fun. I was wagering about $8 million a month. Although not huge, it was big enough to be noticed. I was connected to these guys and had a $1 million line at Pinny.

I was also supplying automated arbitrage software to many here. So I was very concerned that I could be considered “in the business of gambling.” Some clever doj lawyer could argue my software was akin to a slot machine or gambling device.

I was 40 years old with daughters and had had enough. It’s a young man’s game. It was a cool life though. At one point during all this I was living in Siberia (Novosibirsk) hanging with Russian gangsters. I am quite lucky to be alive. Heck, I knew 5 Dimes Tony, as he taught me the ropes a bit when I started. And they killed him.

https://archives.fbi.gov/archives/newyor...