2024 US Presidential Election Betting Thread
Ladies and gentleman, that time of the year is almost upon us. Republican debates start next month and I am looking forward to seeing all my friends again. It almost feels like school is back in session.
Some interesting candidates this year and wondering if Domahhhh is going to risk his entire net worth on a coinflip of a single election (getting -180 of course).
We didn't think it could get any worse but here we are. I wish the BOL to all competitors in this arena.
Walz is the pick
Another fave bites the dust.
Walz seems to be being received fairly positively on the D side. Guess they're going for national appeal over delivering a specific swing state. Trump 1.9x on Betfair it's getting close to flipping but not quite yet
Just bet on a successful takedown of Trump at 166-1. I don't like doing these sorts of bets, but fair value is considerably better than 166-1.
Looks like there may have been another taker on this bet, [Link].
Anybody have any thoughts on Biden resigning at 16%? Seems like clear value on the no side, PredictIt says that a death doesn't count and I don't know what a resignation before the election would do for Harris.
There's no reason for him to resign early barring health issues as he can ram through any necessary but unpopular legislation after the election but before Harris takes office so she can say Biden did that not me
There is no upside to him resigning before Harris is due to take office unless he becomes literally incapable of doing the job
Anybody have any thoughts on Biden resigning at 16%? Seems like clear value on the no side, PredictIt says that a death doesn't count and I don't know what a resignation before the election would do for Harris.
i've been maxed out on the no since i found that
only real threat at this point is an accident/health crisis that leaves him alive but unable to serve
Harris just flipped Trump as the fav on Betfair.
Got out of my long dem position today.
Better to make 40% risk free than 100% on a moving target.
Although I am convinced I had way the best of it.
after losing a bit on biden yes on the ticket i cleaned up nicely on predictit vp market - piled it all into dem no because that market was way overpriced compared to polling/other markets but it keeps on dumping - can technically close them all now for a tiny loss (but decent gain overall)
was just hoping to swing trade but it feels like i got in too early - there's a bunch which are wild though, specifically az senate market
I would not short dem on any Senate race unless the price was ridiculously bad.
Dem POTUS+House+Senate still good value IMO.
Best bet had to be NO Trump winning all swing states. Only a month ago it was pick, now its -700.
But I don't participate in Polymarket so it's all academic to me.
arizona senate is currently 79% dem win
both are new candidates
was held for a single term by a D turned I who stepped down (party was going to arm primary candidates to remove her anyway since she sided with GOP on the fillibuster so this was much more a face saving stepping down)
was held by an R the term before who retired
it's very much a contested and open seat and both parties are going to absolutely pour national resources into this campaign
the D has the advantage for sure, but it's nowhere near 79%
however, this wouldn't be the first time i did something stupid and didn't understand what i was doing, for all i know it could be fair at dem win 85%
I would not short dem on any Senate race unless the price was ridiculously bad.
Dem POTUS+House+Senate still good value IMO.
Best bet had to be NO Trump winning all swing states. Only a month ago it was pick, now its -700.
But I don't participate in Polymarket so it's all academic to me.
Where do you think Dems can flip a Senate seat? They could still control the Senate if they only lost WV, held everywhere else, and won the presidency.
Where do you think Dems can flip a Senate seat? They could still control the Senate if they only lost WV, held everywhere else, and won the presidency.
Texas looks interesting. D +700 might be a play as I don't think the odds go much higher so hedging out s/b available.
I've read Kentucky is in play but I can't find any odds.
Texas looks interesting. D +700 might be a play as I don't think the odds go much higher so hedging out s/b available.
I've read Kentucky is in play but I can't find any odds.
I need to see more political ads for Allred. Or maybe I need to watch more network television to see them.
But Ted Cruz sucks because all he does nowadays is culture war. And those odds are great.
Lots (more like all of them) of rural counties go Republican. And they go by like 90/10 margin.
Allred will win in Houston, ElPaso, Austin, and Dallas. He will probably also win in San Antonio.
predictit electoral MOV market implies 82% chance of dems winning, with 58% on their separate "which party wins?" market
#efficientmarkets
Hoping for Kamala to announce price controls on PredictIt withdrawal fees soon.
If not, Capital One is offering a generous new election season signup bonus on their Spark Cash Plus card for us high spenders. $2k cash bonus when you spend $30k in the first 3 months plus 2% cashback gets you another $600. Minus the $150 annual fee nets you $2,450 cash. It works out to a rebate of 8.17% that will more than offset PredictIt's 5% withdrawal fee. Just in time for election season betting.
key to gaming the fees on predictit is just never win
Both candidates sitting on exactly +104 on Betfair again today
