Ukraine-Russia War Take 2
Here is what the preliminary take on the Ukraine thread disappearing is:
The site was hit with a massive spam attack where hundreds of spam threads were created. In the case where, for example, I see a single spam thread and delete it, that is called a soft delete, and mods can still see them but forum members cannot. Those deletion can be undone.
When a massive attack hits with hundreds of threads, an admin uses a different procedure where the hundreds of spam threads are merged and then hard deleted, where the threads are gone, and no note is left behind. As I have mentioned with my own experience of just soft deleting a large number of posts, sometimes a post or thread gets checked or merged accidentally and is deleted by mistake. Dealing with hundreds of spam threads takes a sledgehammer, not a scalpel.
It appears that our Ukraine thread may have gotten caught up in that recent net of spam threads. If so, it is likely gone for good. I cant say this for sure, and am awaiting comments from admins on this issue. Yes, this sucks. And hopefully there was some other software glitch that caused the disappearance, and we may recover it in the future.
But in the meantime, I have created this new Ukraine-Russia War thread to enable the conversation to continue. Obviously continuity with earlier discussions will be lost. There is no way around that. So as best as possible, let's pick up the conversation with recent events and go from there.
If you have any questions about this, please post them in the mod thread, not here. Let's keep this thread going with posts about the war, not the disappearance of the old thread.
Thanks.
Also your kind of downplaying the other side in an unhealthy nonrational way . They certainly have an advantage but no one really knows because its a state secret for some reason. The us estimated 70k kia last year so its likely only about a 1.5-1 kia advantage.
So ya most of Russia original veterans are out of commission but same for Ukraine. Its quite sad There was a Ukraine blogger at the start of the war who posted here who I followed who has long stopped posting I think he was a top 10 on hendon for Ukraine. These are people man.
Both sides still have plenty of good soldiers.... because the ones left have survived it. Its kind of sick how neither side seems to be able to rotate men out of the front lines because of politics even during ww1 soldiers were rotated out of the trenches. Vietnam they had 1 year max and lots of leave. Solders shouldn't be able to function at the front line this long. There is research that suggests they lose combat capability after a few months without breaks.
Ukraine 'free to use' British weapons on Russian soil
Ukrainian forces can use British weapons on Russian soil when defending itself, the Ministry of Defence has confirmed.
An MoD spokesperson says Ukraine has a "clear right of self-defence against Russia's illegal attacks...that does not preclude operations inside Russia".
"We make clear during the gifting process that equipment is to be used in line with international law," they added.
Sir Ben Wallace, the former Conservative defence secretary, has been reported as previously saying that all weapons supplied by the UK, except long-range Storm Shadow missiles, can be used within Russia
I can't make sense of this stuff. I think UK is saying that then Biden/Sullivan tell them no. The end result is that Ukraine hasn't been using long range missiles to strike into Russia. They did use shorter range HIMARS, but they have been asking for permission to strike deeper.
Oh yeah,the potential Nato military base in Sevastopol sure is not an existential for the Russians,who are you kidding here?
about sweden and finland now
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nato-countr...
russia opened a pandora box and ukrayne isnt the only "threat" from nato.
russia had some ok and some good soldiers
those soldiers were used and died long ago
as of now russia has lost over 600k people
They have been using their people to deplete enemy ammo supplies aka cannon fodder
I dont think they are doing better now. I think they are depleted now and lack good troops with combat experience
I also just heard on tiktok that the ukranian incursion is to destroy anti air stuff
makes sense to me
The main problem for Russia is that they have been relying on a lot of the same doctrine as they used in Chechnya and are still using in Syria and Libya.
This doctrine is largely based on eradicating resistance and insurgencies through terror-bombing civilians and civilian infrastructure and encouraging your drunk soldiers, militias and secret police to commit mass murder, rape and summary executions. This displaces and kills the populace on which the insurgency and resistance draws. In Ukraine they have additionally used ethnic and ideological cleansing, complete with "re-education camps" (aka. concentration camps), de-concentration, deportation and forced replacement of Ukrainian natives with Russian immigrants.
However, in Ukraine this approach is largely ineffective because they are not fighting insurgents and civilians, but an actual military force with its own logistics and capacities that isn't really damaged nor really hindered by these atrocities.
Basically, Russia planned for terror, but suddenly found itself in a war. Their enormous convoys of tanks and artillery on their way to mindlessly and aimlessly shell Kyiv until Ukraine surrendered found themselves attacked and having to maneuver, and ultimately had to withdraw in what will stand as one of the most humiliating military defeats in modern Russian history.
So while Russia certainly had the numbers, technology and production it needed for a war, it lacked organization, competence and perhaps not least that modicum of systematic honesty you need to correct your failures and recognize and promote those who have actual solutions. It has yet to remedy that to a reasonable level.
All of this has also laid the groundwork for an intelligence apparatus that is better at obfuscation, propaganda and covering things up than it is at figuring things out. While this certainly serves them in the media war and social media war, it poses an enormous problem on the battlefield where they are fighting an enemy whose intelligence apparatus is impressively dynamic.
Interesting re Russia desperation wrt manning the lines
https://x.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1823860...
Apparently Russia is sending "refuseniks" (people arrested because they refuse to go to war) on the front. Unclear to me how that would help Russia btw.
I think refusenik is my new favorite word.
you know the same is true for the other side right. where do you get your numbers? its not 600k. If there was 600k dead Russians the country would probably have already collapsed or at least needed a draft. Your probably quoting casualty numbers. The fact you dont know the difference between a kia and a casualty says alot about your knowledge on the war. Those numbers would also include a decent percentage of Ukrainians from donbas and lu
Also your kind of downplaying the other side in an unhealthy nonrational way . They certainly have an advantage but no one really knows because its a state secret for some reason. The us estimated 70k kia last year so its likely only about a 1.5-1 kia advantage.
So ya most of Russia original veterans are out of commission but same for Ukraine. Its quite sad There was a Ukraine blogger at the start of the war who posted here who I followed w
that makes more sense
ukranian fighters are better equipped and have better motivation to fight. russians have to be shot in the back to be motivated to fight and they get the worst equipment lmao
also theres the attacker to defender ratios, so russia needed 4 attackers or maybe up to 6 to kill one defender
but when ukraine attacks russia, the russians have worse equipment and no motivation to fight, so they prob need a more than one defender to hold off ever 4-6 ukranians
ukranian fighters are better equipped and have better motivation to fight. russians have to be shot in the back to be motivated to fight and they get the worst equipment lmao
Here's a thread and a video on it:
KURSK
Thread on use of conscripts in Kursk
Icarus Project video "Why Russian Soldiers Keep Surrendering to Ukraine"
Spoiler
The two main factors to get Russians to go on assaults was threat of being shot and gf/wife calling and saying they desperately need the money. Russia isn't willing (so far) to shoot 18-19 year olds in the back, and the person on the other side of the line is a parent telling them to do their mandatory service and get out; don't take any risks. Completely different.
Found some footage of the genocide Ukrainians are undertaking in Russia btw:
you know somethings coming out soon. thats just what happens in war and ill be w/e with that too
Really have to give it up to Ukraine, constantly full of surprises. Have some creative leadership.
they just get drunk and come up with the zaniest of plans like doing massive ecoterrorism.
Back in the day, like the 1970s, it used to mean Russian Jews who'd been refused permission to emigrate to Israel. It's morphed to mean Russians who find themselves at odds with the law in other ways, such as resisting conscription to fight in Ukraine.
Ya I dont follow this logic "all the good solders are dead". if anything Russia did poorly at the start and are doing better now (in actual combat not ******ed blunders) "good soldiers" are made from experience
The Russians don't seem to be 'doing better now', as they aren't progressing in the occupied areas (they were supposed to take Kyiv on Day 3, remember) and they've just suffered a large ground invasion they weren't expecting and don't yet know how to counter. They burned up their best, established troops some time ago and have been relying on recalled reservists who very much don't want to go and are now conscripting civilians who understandably feel the same way. They may have more manpower available than Ukraine, but Russia isn't facing an existential threat, as Ukraine is, and the war doesn't seem to be popular in Russia (which is discernible despite the state-controlled media).
The russians were absolutely doing better since this latest blunder. They took compatibly more land in the last year. they gambled and lost. Ukraine still has to hold the land tho and an extra front for them could be a disaster. invading russia during winter is generally never worked out
Kremlin ally Belarus calls for peace in Russia-Ukraine ‘scuffle’
Putin ally Aleksandr Lukashenko says, “Let’s sit down at the negotiating table” to end the conflict.
Ukraine is in the process of withdrawing to Pokrovsk, if that falls to Russia it is a big deal.
Russia has been making steady gains since AvdiivEnglish?
That doesn't mean their troops are any better though. Lack of foreign aid played a big role, better tactics, and even greater tolerance for losing soldiers has been Russia's main drivers.
name a long war where the soldiers of a country didn't get better over 3 years lol. The corruption showed but now they had to actually fight. Standard russian war
If Russian solders were bad (they were) that would give them more room to grow so by your own logic that's impossible ;p because Ukrainians were already perfect to begin with
