2024 Fantasy Football Thread

2024 Fantasy Football Thread

Welcome to the 2024 fantasy season, where I'm officially addicted to best ball. I've been drafting since the end of January. Through 95 drafts, my exposures are below. The player order is based on current ADP. Some of these ADPs have been quite fluid over the last 3 months, with FAs and rookies moving the most. Most of my exposures are structurally driven, rather than player take driven. Especially at this point in the game, pre-draft.

But there are some players I simply couldn't avoid going heavy on, like McBride and Andrews in the 5th round. I'm actually quite heavy all of the top TEs, minus LaPorta and Kincaid. I also tried to make sure I had at least 1 TE by the end of round 8, with Ferguson being the last of the group.

Also took approaches like attacking Nabers and Odunze harder than MHJ, at their relative prices.

What do we like and not like?






Rookie season is also upon us. Redraft is still 3.5 months away from heating up, but there will be rookie drafts, dynasty startups, and best ball drafts leading up until then.

Good luck to all, and may injuries and variance be kind.

25 April 2024 at 04:46 PM
Reply...

3755 Replies

i
a

Also possible Worthy doesn’t come back.

Since you’re already behind at WR, I might rather take Worthy in the 4th and see if Mahomes comes back, and if not, take another WR. Although, you do have Hollywood stack backup later on if Worthy doesn’t come back.

Lamar/Andrews would be tough only having 1 WR through 5.


by tarheels2222 P

Since you’re already behind at WR, I might rather take Worthy in the 4th and see if Mahomes comes back, and if not, take another WR.

ah I think you're right. Taking a WR and hoping the QB makes it back is smarter than the other way around, because at least you aren't screwed if the QB gets sniped.

Well I went Mahomes then Worthy.


QB - Mahomes, Caleb, Penix

RB - Bijan, Achane, Chubb, Mclaughin, Dillon, Laube

WR - DJM, Worthy, Odunze, Hollywood, Lockett, Dotson, Douglas, Roman

TE - Pitts, Otton, Sinnott


by newguyhere P

ah I think you're right. Taking a WR and hoping the QB makes it back is smarter than the other way around, because at least you aren't screwed if the QB gets sniped.

Well I went Mahomes then Worthy.


QB - Mahomes, Caleb, Penix

RB - Bijan, Achane, Chubb, Mclaughin, Dillon, Laube

WR - DJM, Worthy, Odunze, Hollywood, Lockett, Dotson, Douglas, Roman

TE - Pitts, Otton, Sinnott

This is the kind of dilemma you’ll find when you take bjian and achane. It leaves you incredibly thin at Wr worthy number 2 and odunze a wr3 sheesh lol but it could be bold .. and I don’t like taking 3 QBs when you go with pat mahomes especially if we project pat numbers to be approaching historic records this season


Mahomes/Caleb is enough to stop, with the draft capital spent.

But I don’t mind Mahomes and two late round QB stacks on DK. I think it’s still +ev, given what the data shows for stacked QBs.

On UD, I’m 2 QB with Mahomes 100% of the time.


I ****ed around with a super bully te team. Not the best team, but not as bad as I thought. Think if Burrow or Jayden comes back around it actually ends up pretty decent

Qb - Geno, Darnold, Maye

Rb - Achane, Pollard, Singletary, Charb, Chandler

Wr - Chase, DK, Watson, Keon, Addison, Polk, Baker, Nailor

Te - Kelce, Andrews


I like it.


by jimmymcgill8 P

I ****ed around with a super bully te team. Not the best team, but not as bad as I thought. Think if Burrow or Jayden comes back around it actually ends up pretty decent

Qb - Geno, Darnold, Maye

Rb - Achane, Pollard, Singletary, Charb, Chandler

Wr - Chase, DK, Watson, Keon, Addison, Polk, Baker, Nailor

Te - Kelce, Andrews

That's a scary QB room. I think I will have 0% Darnold but that could be a mistake. O'connel is a heck of a coach maybe he will have a career year. Geno also could have a career year with the new OC. At least they won't run the fewest plays this year. I am a tiny bit worried he gets benched for Howell if things don't start off well.

I'm not as high on Polk and Baker as I was early on. I think Polk's ceiling is capped and Baker has a long way to go.

I like your TE's.


The new move I'm seeing is taking Josh Allen at the 2/3 turn and then grabbing Kincaid in the 4th. it's the Mahomes move but on the left side of the board. It's a terrible play due to the opportunity cost. Also, for me at least, Allen is a big fade this year. Allen as the first QB off the board will end up being the worst miss pricing of a player in fantasy drafts. Diggs has been replaced by a not so highly rated rookie. The WR's are very average at best. They have a nice TE who might emerge as a star. The team seems to want to run. Is Allen gonna run for 15 TD's again this year?

What am I missing?


That Josh Allen has finished as the 1st or 2nd fantasy qb the last 4 years, is an elite runner, and is probably the 2nd best qb in the nfl…you’re also getting him mostly in the 4th…

I think ppl in this forum far too often undervalue talent and overvalue situation (which is normally priced into ADP anyway so you’re generally dbl counting) which btw has historically been a mistake… I wouldn’t spend a 3rd on Josh or a 2nd like he was last year, but can you really not see a path for Allen to be elite? His situation is kinda already in the price given he’s going like 2rds later than last year

FWIW I do like Hurts better, but they’re ranked on every “sharp” ranking site roughly 1-5 spots apart and his ADP is usually higher than his ranking on everything


by jimmymcgill8 P

That Josh Allen has finished as the 1st or 2nd fantasy qb the last 4 years, is an elite runner, and is probably the 2nd best qb in the nfl…you’re also getting him mostly in the 4th…

I think ppl in this forum far too often undervalue talent and overvalue situation (which is normally priced into ADP anyway so you’re generally dbl counting) which btw has historically been a mistake… I wouldn’t spend a 3rd on

I do think Josh Allen is elite just like I thought Mahomes was elite last year. Allen is my QB 4. I'll take him in the mid to late 4th in a scenario where I have a chance to get Kincaid on the way back. People are for some reason ignoring the difference between Diggs and Coleman. I've heard throughout camp that the WR's are not getting separation. This sounds awful familiar to the KC situation. We are getting a great price this year on Allen but we are also getting a great price on QBs I like more. I don't love the Bills/Jets week 17 game. That just feels like a 23 to 17 best case scenario. I don't love 4 games against the Jets and Patriots. I also don't like the idea of not having an elite stacking partner. Maybe Kincaid is that guy but good luck getting them together. Also, I like the value of Burrow, Stroud, Dak, Daniels, Caleb etc.

I have 5% Allen which feels fine to me in case I am wrong. Josh can absolutely carry this team on his shoulders. If you are an Allen believer then you should put some money on him winning the MVP. I may actually do that to hedge my bet.


The perspective you’re giving now is quite a bit different than the “worst mispricing in fantasy drafts” and “a big fade”

That’s quite a leap to “I have 5%”, which means you’re a few % under exposed

The guys I think are the most mispriced (as in too expensive) in drafts I have maybe 1-2% max of if I even draft them at all


by jimmymcgill8 P

The perspective you’re giving now is quite a bit different than the “worst mispricing in fantasy drafts” and “a big fade”

That’s quite a leap to “I have 5%”, which means you’re a few % under exposed

The guys I think are the most mispriced (as in too expensive) in drafts I have maybe 1-2% max of if I even draft them at all

You are right. He's not the worst. I am 100% fading him at the 3/4 turn. Much of my 5% exposure was very early on in the draft season so I am probably at 1-2% lately.


I think Nuk and Addison have become great safety nets again on UD

Allows you to make some detours and Nuk in particular has fallen way past value now that he’ll be ready for w1

Addison is probably priced correctly with the ambiguous late season suspension risk, but you get him so late that’s it’s nice to take that risk if light at wr


I’ve been clicking both quite a bit lately. Funny that Nuk hasn’t risen back up at all on the positive reports.

They’re even cheaper on DK. Nuk 103 and Addison 109.


by jimmymcgill8 P

I think Nuk and Addison have become great safety nets again on UD

Allows you to make some detours and Nuk in particular has fallen way past value now that he’ll be ready for w1

Addison is probably priced correctly with the ambiguous late season suspension risk, but you get him so late that’s it’s nice to take that risk if light at wr

I agree!

They both fall at what used to be at the end of a tier. Nuke going 3 rounds later than Ridley when he is probably starting week 1 is ridiculous. He also gives you another late QB out. I'm still snagging up Jaylen Warren in the late 9th as well.


100+ Jaylen Warren has been fun.


Pass on Nuk for me. I do like Addison, and late Warren is very nice.


This one went pretty smoothly.


QB - Murray, Caleb

RB - Cook, Monty, Chubb, Dobbins, Estime, Laube

WR - Puka, MHJ, Moore, Higgins, AD, M. Wilson, Mims, McMilan, Tez

TE - Njoku, Kmet, Jonnu


i stepped away to wash some dishes and wanted Tez with my last pick, but I guess I had Jatavion ahead of him in my queue. So I end up with a mini TB/CAR stack instead.


QB - Lamar, Carr

RB - Bijan, Javonte, Corum, Dobbins, Herbert, Lloyd, Sanders

WR - Olave, Waddle, Odunze, Jamo, Shaheed, Polk, McMilan, Hyatt

TE - Andrews, Bowers, Sanders


Got a ton of value in this one. I did find it odd that these two guys sniped Roman Wilson and Van Jefferson 30 spots ahead of ADP after I drafted Fields. Not that I would have drafted Van, but I would have preferred the rookie Roman over Calvin Austin.


From 1.09

QB - Hurts, Jayden, Fields

RB - Barkley, Moss, Dowdle, Wright, Lloyd, Hill

WR - JJ, Devonta, Higgins, Ridley, Odunze, Dotson, McMilan, Austin III

TE - Ferguson, Schultz, Jonnu


Got my starting lu drafted for my guillotine league. Not exactly how I planned it. Slow drafts take the fun out of drafting

Was fading Tank, but he fell to the 5th in a 16tm lg and I happily draft him in the 3rd on UD so couldn’t resist anymore which I think is fine there

Wasn’t going to take rookie qb, but Jayden’s rushing floor + the only other options being Tlaw and Herbert who carry their own risks made me say **** it and go for it

Qb - Jayden
Rb - Bijan, Singletary
Wr - Waddle, Kupp
Te - Pitts
Flex - Dell


Eagles trade for Jahan Dotson.....

Ramifications for both teams?


why is RB more valuable than WR and WR more valuable than QB and TE?

aren't points just points?

like don't you just want to get players who score the most points relative to other players in that position?

sorry of this question is super noob. like I said this is my first time playing. my draft is coming up Sept 2nd. i've been trying to study and learn. this league is high stakes for me, but hopefully other guys in the league are soft too


by cokeboy99 P

Eagles trade for Jahan Dotson.....

Ramifications for both teams?

I wish I had 0% Dotson, so that’s how I feel about it.

Pump up Terry and LMC. Dyami Brown is going to run routes, but he still sucks, so who cares?

Could be good for Sinnott too.

With that said, I think this increases Washington’s chances of making a move for Aiyuk.


by cokeboy99 P

Eagles trade for Jahan Dotson.....

Ramifications for both teams?

For the Eagles, they finally get a WR3. Probably lowers the value of rookies Ainais Smith and Johnny Wilson. Gives us a late target in BestBall if we draft Hurts.


For the Commanders, don't think it'll have a huge impact on Terry. Could see Sinnott or LMC move up, and potentially more targets for Ekeler and/or BRob.


Reply...