2024 Fantasy Football Thread
Welcome to the 2024 fantasy season, where I'm officially addicted to best ball. I've been drafting since the end of January. Through 95 drafts, my exposures are below. The player order is based on current ADP. Some of these ADPs have been quite fluid over the last 3 months, with FAs and rookies moving the most. Most of my exposures are structurally driven, rather than player take driven. Especially at this point in the game, pre-draft.
But there are some players I simply couldn't avoid going heavy on, like McBride and Andrews in the 5th round. I'm actually quite heavy all of the top TEs, minus LaPorta and Kincaid. I also tried to make sure I had at least 1 TE by the end of round 8, with Ferguson being the last of the group.
Also took approaches like attacking Nabers and Odunze harder than MHJ, at their relative prices.
What do we like and not like?
Rookie season is also upon us. Redraft is still 3.5 months away from heating up, but there will be rookie drafts, dynasty startups, and best ball drafts leading up until then.
Good luck to all, and may injuries and variance be kind.
DK has always had the higher priced main contest. Which is why I prefer FD.
FD will usually raise the entry on theirs, but usually later in the season, and never to $15. In the past they've raised it to $7 or $9
Dk has a 3 dollar 20 entry contest where it’s 100k to first . That’s my contest of choice .
I've had a bad feeling about CMC but I've had an equally bad feeling passing on him in drafts.
Really curious how this plays out. News reports are saying Achilles Tendonitis and I can tell you I have been dealing with that since March and starting to think I may never run again. Incremental daily improvement through stretching and anti-inflammatory meds helps but just a round of disc golf or a hike brings the pain back the next day.
Basketball or tennis? F that, best of luck CMC drafters
So i got sniped all draft on Tes and waited until last round to grab dulcich. He was terrible, but thankfully so were all TEs. What sort of FAAB are people spending on Likely if you dont have a top 12 te? Parkinson seemed like a decent option last night, maybe even better now with nacua out. Any other TEs on the radar?
Likely went for 75/100 in my main league from a guy that has Jake Ferguson
Really curious how this plays out. News reports are saying Achilles Tendonitis and I can tell you I have been dealing with that since March and starting to think I may never run again. Incremental daily improvement through stretching and anti-inflammatory meds helps but just a round of disc golf or a hike brings the pain back the next day.
Basketball or tennis? F that, best of luck CMC drafters
These guy's have access to the best rehab on a daily basis. They will shoot him up with pain killers. This has the makings of a down year for CMC for sure. I knew it but I couldn't stop drafting him when given the opportunity. It may still work out because he is so good even a down year may not be so bad.
Week 1 take part 1.
1) Kirk Cousins is done. The Falcons knew they made a mistake and this is why they took Penix. This is why Penix was held out of the last preseason game. I'd expect Penix to be in there very soon.
2) When I first looked at ADP's this year I was shocked at what I saw. Puka in round one and Kupp in round 3? Why on earth were people drafting Aiyuk, Olave, London and Adams in early round two? Harrison at pick 13 seemed ambitious but I kind of get it given his pedigree and the possibility he might just be that good. I've heard he is looking slow and perhaps this is why he didn't show up to the combine. I felt gross clicking him in drafts but I did it. I finally started to get smart at the end of August and took Achane there instead.
3) Defenses are giving QB's the middle of the field to throw to. Short QB's like Bryce, Wilson and Kyler can't see the middle of the field.
4) The cream will rise to the top so I am not overly concerned with some of the mega duds we saw from star players. I will be playing a ton of ARSB and Andrews this week in DFS. Week one is basically a preseason game for the starters who didn't play in the pre season. Andrews was double teamed a ton which allowed Likely to get the lay up tosses. The success Likely had will hopefully take the pressure off Andrews. I also figured it would take a game or two for him to ramp up after coming back from injury. ARSB is gonna be a squeaky wheel situation.
5) The Mostert massive regression year should have been seen a mile away. I didn't take much Mostert but I also didn't take enough Achane.
6) The Rico Dowdle/Chase Brown hype was absurd. This was fed to the fantasy hive mind by YouTube live streamers all summer. I was a sheep and took Dowdle early on. I never fell for the Chase Brown nonsense.
7) I can't blame the hive mind for going mostly zero RB in drafts. It made a lot of sense. That being said, I was very nervous about some of the zero RB targets. I had a feeling this year may be the year of the stud RB. It may not be given how often these guy's get hurt. My gut told me Breece Hall would end up RB 1 this year but I was too much of a coward to plant my flag in drafts.
I’ve been sending this to all my friends in Chicago freaking out. Seems appropriate for this forum
I did my part trying to warn people about Mostert and CMC 😀
Week 1 take part 1.
6) The Rico Dowdle/Chase Brown hype was absurd. This was fed to the fantasy hive mind by YouTube live streamers all summer. I was a sheep and took Dowdle early on. I never fell for the Chase Brown nonsense.
I still fully believe that Chase takes over this backfield. This isn't because I truly belive in his talent but more cause Moss is one of those players I irrationally dislike and I need Chase to be the RB1 cause I did fall for the hype hard
I’ve been sending this to all my friends in Chicago freaking out. Seems appropriate for this forum
The people in Chicago shouldn't be freaking out. I expected all of the rookie QB's to struggle in week one. There are things that I predicted in the pre season that are playing out early. There are many things to be concerned about.
I still fully believe that Chase takes over this backfield. This isn't because I truly belive in his talent but more cause Moss is one of those players I irrationally dislike and I need Chase to be the RB1 cause I did fall for the hype hard
He might. I mostly stayed away from this backfield. The Bengals seem to look like trash in the first few games and then eventually get it going. Obviously not having Higgins and food poisoned out of shape Chase didn't help. I see better days but I don't see a big breakout for either RB.
Mostert was an obvious one.
I didn't have that warm and fuzzy feeling I usually do when taking CMC. I only passed on him later in the draft season in an attempt to get my Lamb shares up.
I don't think the CMC stans will be hurt too much if he does end up busting just because it's probably hard to be that heavy on him based on where he was drafted.
Jeff Wilson starts out every year 3rd or 4th on a rb depth chart and somehow always becomes fantasy relevant. This year it took one week.
I keep hearing people brag about how well they did week one. This is a long season, I wouldn't start bragging until the end of the year. I also wouldn't panic especially with your studs. Lamb wasn't very good at the beginning of last year.
18 team PPR 2RB/2WR/TE/2FLX Guillotine and shut out from the week 1 FA feeding frenzy. Added Jeff Wilson as a potential desperation play if both Mostert & Achane are out
Week 1 take part 1.
6) The Rico Dowdle/Chase Brown hype was absurd. This was fed to the fantasy hive mind by YouTube live streamers all summer. I was a sheep and took Dowdle early on. I never fell for the Chase Brown nonsense.
7) I can't blame the hive mind for going mostly zero RB in drafts. It made a lot of sense. That being said, I was very nervous about some of the zero RB targets. I had a feeling this year may be the year of the stud R
I think you need to be careful when reflecting on these types of bets for the future. This is not a hive mind sheep phenomenon. This is a always bet on uncertain backfields in good offenses for cheap prices process. If Rico and Chase were being taken in rounds 5 or 6, those hive minds would have been completely out. They weren't. They were being taken in rounds 10, 11, and 12 for most of the summer and "peaked" in round 9. It's all about opportunity cost.
Zero RB still did pretty damn good in week 1. 8 of the top 10 RB scores this week were drafted in round 5 or later. One of my mistakes this year was not taking enough of the round 5, 6, and 7 RBs. Unfortunately, I didn't reflect on it until drafting season was nearing an end. I got too comfortable with the RB zone from rounds 8-15, especially relative to the (perceived) WR opportunity cost.
18 team PPR 2RB/2WR/TE/2FLX Guillotine and shut out from the week 1 FA feeding frenzy. Added Jeff Wilson as a potential desperation play if both Mostert & Achane are out
If Achane, Wilson and Wright are all 3 active, it could be dicey, but I'd still expect Wright to probably not play a lot. If it's just Wilson/Achane or Wilson/Wright, then he's a pretty easy play, especially in this format.
I think you need to be careful when reflecting on these types of bets for the future. This is not a hive mind sheep phenomenon. This is a always bet on uncertain backfields in good offenses for cheap prices process. If Rico and Chase were being taken in rounds 5 or 6, those hive minds would have been completely out. They weren't. They were being taken in rounds 10, 11, and 12 for most of the summer and "peaked" in round 9. It's all ab
I never thought the Cowboy backfield was all that uncertain. I knew Zeke was gonna be the starter. I knew Zeke was gonna be the goal line back. I knew Rico was a jag.
The Bengal situation was a little more uncertain. I didn't like either of these guy's. I figured Moss would fall into the endzone a few times. I never thought Brown would be anything more than a change of pace guy.
Zero RB absolutely made sense. I was just concerned about how confident people were in the zero RB targets. I'm very confident that Breece Hall will be a top 3 pick in drafts next year. I only have 7% of him which I regret. Somehow I have 7% Justin Jefferson which I regret( Again I listened to the fantasy hive mind). I knew Breece was the better pick but I hedged my bets and took some Jefferson. Jefferson will be ok especially in more competitive games, but Breece is gonna be a fantasy star.
Zero RB still did pretty damn good in week 1. 8 of the top 10 RB scores this week were drafted in round 5 or later. One of my mistakes this year was not taking enough of the round 5, 6, and 7 RBs. Unfortunately, I didn't reflect on it until drafting season was nearing an end. I got too comfortable with the RB zone from rounds 8-15, especially relative to the (perceived) WR opportunity cost.
This is a very good point. I was mainly a zero or hero RB drafter this year and waited on RBs after round 8 while focusing on TE's and QB's 5-7
I do have a 18% Likley share (only 60 drafts though) which could pay off but the problem is I was always tapping Kincaid, Pitts etc in the 5th over the RB's so if Likley does continue to have a large TGT share then I'm not going to benefit from it that much
I never thought the Cowboy backfield was all that uncertain. I knew Zeke was gonna be the starter. I knew Zeke was gonna be the goal line back. I knew Rico was a jag.
The Bengal situation was a little more uncertain. I didn't like either of these guy's. I figured Moss would fall into the endzone a few times. I never thought Brown would be anything more than a change of pace guy.
Zero RB absolutely made sense. I was just concerned about how
I mean, Zeke played 51% of the snaps and Dowdle 44% lol. Zeke with 12 opportunities and Dowdle with 9. There was only 1 goal line opportunity, and that went to Zeke, but that doesn't mean Dowdle won't have his own. They're both JAGs, which, imo, is kind of the point. I am overweight on both.
I think Moss and Brown will both have some good weeks, which at their prices is perfectly fine. There is no one else that matters in this backfield. I am overweight on both.
Breece was a good pick this year, but so was everyone else going around him. He was almost always a top 8 pick, so it's not like the market didn't agree.
Not all zero RB targets are created equally. And certainly not all are going to hit or be good picks in hindsight. Some are built to give you early production. Some are built purely on contingency. Some are built on spike weeks. Building rooms with profiles that make sense together is way more important and something I want to get even better at. I also built plenty of teams with hero or zombie RB.
