2024 Fantasy Football Thread
Welcome to the 2024 fantasy season, where I'm officially addicted to best ball. I've been drafting since the end of January. Through 95 drafts, my exposures are below. The player order is based on current ADP. Some of these ADPs have been quite fluid over the last 3 months, with FAs and rookies moving the most. Most of my exposures are structurally driven, rather than player take driven. Especially at this point in the game, pre-draft.
But there are some players I simply couldn't avoid going heavy on, like McBride and Andrews in the 5th round. I'm actually quite heavy all of the top TEs, minus LaPorta and Kincaid. I also tried to make sure I had at least 1 TE by the end of round 8, with Ferguson being the last of the group.
Also took approaches like attacking Nabers and Odunze harder than MHJ, at their relative prices.
What do we like and not like?
Rookie season is also upon us. Redraft is still 3.5 months away from heating up, but there will be rookie drafts, dynasty startups, and best ball drafts leading up until then.
Good luck to all, and may injuries and variance be kind.
Fair. I'm amazed that run was the fastest of the week. I did try to look for Next Gen Stats of his for the game but they weren't posted, at least not that I could find.
But he hits that speed then immediately pulls up and gets chased down. Can't help but think he's still impacted.
1:05 of this video, if the timestamp doesn't work:
Happy for the guy. Don't want to say his talent has always been unquestioned but seemed like he always flashed when on the field, just a brutal string of injuries.
What do you guys think everyone is overreacting to after week 1?
Can't imagine why anyone would be worried about St. Brown. Nobody goes off every game. I'd sell Jamo high if anything.
I'll say I've overreacted to Baltimore. They were close to a 2 point try away from winning at KC despite looking bad in some areas.
Can't imagine why anyone would be worried about St. Brown. Nobody goes off every game. I'd sell Jamo high if anything.
I'll say I've overreacted to Baltimore. They were close to a 2 point try away from winning at KC despite looking bad in some areas.
Baltimore's offense is just a joke. 57 screen passes and "hey, Lamar, make a play" is the strategy. Not saying they can't win football games, but this is bad for fantasy ceilings from flex options.
Can't imagine why anyone would be worried about St. Brown. Nobody goes off every game.
The problem with St. Brown is that he's around the same price as Justin Jefferson against the Niners and over $8k on DK and higher priced than Cooper Kupp. I'll be playing St. Brown a lot, if the field isn't.
If CMC plays and we lose the Mason value, it'll be more difficult to jam in Kupp with any $8k WRs, unless you wanna play a $3k TE, which the field won't wanna do.
My dummy lineup looks like this for single-entry with a $3k TE and a cheap DST. When more value inevitably opens up at RB because RB, I can bump Chase up to St. Brown. and maybe Nabers finds his way into my lineup over Palmer.
While we're on the topic, why isn't there a DFS-specific thread?
Went with a Bucs stack last week - figured him and Evans could go off against a weak secondary, and the obvious bring back was Mclarin. The problem is Jayden Daniels likes to be a running back so that one failed. Had Bears D - was between that and Vikings so that turned out well. RBs were tricky - they are so TD dependent. TE position is a wasteland but I refuse to pay 6k for the top guys - at that price they have zero upside. Went with Taysom Hill/Cade Otton for my stack - both didn't do ****.
Btw why does ownership matter in a big field GPP? If you're building a lineup based on heavy correlation of 1 game blowing up, it's about scoring the most points not having the lowest owned players. Your lineup has no idea what other lineups have and doesn't care - we're also not concerned about just cashing especially with how top heavy payouts are. Never understood that argument - would love to hear logic behind it.
The top heavy payouts is the exact reason. When you hit the nuts, you don't want to share it with anyone when first place is $1m, 2nd is $200k, 9th is $10k, etc.
Obviously it's a balance of projection and correlation, but when you think Reek is going to be 30% try to find a Jamo who is 5% and could potentially score the same or better.
The top heavy payouts is the exact reason. When you hit the nuts, you don't want to share it with anyone when first place is $1m, 2nd is $200k, 9th is $10k, etc.
Obviously it's a balance of projection and correlation, but when you think Reek is going to be 30% try to find a Jamo who is 5% and could potentially score the same or better.
There is value to being unique for all the reasons you mentioned, but the sims have shown that playing the best plays with a couple pivots is the best strategy (as of now at least)
so I'm new to this. this is my first time. I got my first trade offer, and it seemed to me to be absurdly lopsided. I told the guy i'd be furious if the league allowed a trade like this to go through. he told me it was a fair trade. i said I'd happily side bet him on production
I get:
Arron jones
Jerry jeudy
he gets:
Brian robinson jr
Michael pittman
chris godwin
he said he'd think about taking the bet
i had to make an effort to keep calm i thought the trade offer was so unfair
so I'm new to this. this is my first time. I got my first trade offer, and it seemed to me to be absurdly lopsided. I told the guy i'd be furious if the league allowed a trade like this to go through. he told me it was a fair trade. i said I'd happily side bet him on production
I get:
Arron jones
Jerry jeudy
he gets:
Brian robinson jr
Michael pittman
chris godwin
he said he'd think about taking the bet
That'd be terrible for you.
Btw why does ownership matter in a big field GPP? If you're building a lineup based on heavy correlation of 1 game blowing up, it's about scoring the most points not having the lowest owned players. Your lineup has no idea what other lineups have and doesn't care - we're also not concerned about just cashing especially with how top heavy payouts are. Never understood that argument - would love to hear logic behind it.
Ownership always matters in GPPs, but yes, the ownership product of a lineup matters more than getting bogged down in individual plays. We wanna have low-owned combos more than just having low-owned players.
The top heavy payouts is the exact reason. When you hit the nuts, you don't want to share it with anyone when first place is $1m, 2nd is $200k, 9th is $10k, etc.
Obviously it's a balance of projection and correlation, but when you think Reek is going to be 30% try to find a Jamo who is 5% and could potentially score the same or better.
Or stack Tyreek with Tua and a runback for a combo to mitigate Tyreek's individual ownership.
I didn't do well in Week 1, but I mincashed with Tyreek, stacking a 4% Tua and running it back with a really low-owned Brian Thomas. The game didn't go off, so I didn't make any real money, but this approach kept me different from the field without sacrificing Tyreek.
Baltimore's offense is just a joke. 57 screen passes and "hey, Lamar, make a play" is the strategy. Not saying they can't win football games, but this is bad for fantasy ceilings from flex options.
Have you considered that Spags schemes stuff that is hard to play against and that the ravens won’t be running that same offense every week given they don’t have to play the KC D every week?
Monken is a pretty good OC imo, so I think I wouldn’t be too concerned with Baltimore
Have you considered that Spags schemes stuff that is hard to play against and that the ravens won’t be running that same offense every week given they don’t have to play the KC D every week?
Monken is a pretty good OC imo, so I think I wouldn’t be too concerned with Baltimore
Again, I'm not saying they won't win football games, but I'm not feeling great about playing Henry, Flowers, Bateman, Andrews, or Likely. I don't play much seasonal seriously, but I'm probably never one-off'ing any of them in DFS this season.
Luckily they won't have to face a player like Chris Jones very often. It's funny to remember that Denver traded up that year to draft Paxton Lynch. If they hadn't done so, KC would have taken Lynch and wouldn't have acquired Jones or Patrick Mahomes the following year.
OT nobody's talking about it. Bijan is a joy to watch even when he just has an ok game for ff.
The top heavy payouts is the exact reason. When you hit the nuts, you don't want to share it with anyone when first place is $1m, 2nd is $200k, 9th is $10k, etc.
Obviously it's a balance of projection and correlation, but when you think Reek is going to be 30% try to find a Jamo who is 5% and could potentially score the same or better.
This is in regards to a big field GPP - sharing never happens and furthermore it's about the highest ceiling projection.
Ownership always matters in GPPs, but yes, the ownership product of a lineup matters more than getting bogged down in individual plays. We wanna have low-owned combos more than just having low-owned players.
Do you have an argument for why rather than just a common blanket statement? This is in reference to a big field GPP.
This is in regards to a big field GPP - sharing never happens and furthermore it's about the highest ceiling projection.
Yes, that’s why I mentioned the payouts for a tournament where first is $1m.
I certainly don’t think that first line is correct - that sharing never happens. Especially when you follow up that argument by stating the highest projections are all that matters. People creating manual lineups and/or using sims are all very concerned about capturing the highest projections. So naturally, that will result in shared lineups.
I don’t play DFS, so I’m not the best one to continue making this argument. But from everything I read and hear, ownership projections are a big focus, even for the large fields. ETR spends a lot of time projecting it.
It’s behind a paywall, but you can see the first sentence for this slate mentions large field tournaments.
30 points for Tua tonight!
