2024 Fantasy Football Thread
Welcome to the 2024 fantasy season, where I'm officially addicted to best ball. I've been drafting since the end of January. Through 95 drafts, my exposures are below. The player order is based on current ADP. Some of these ADPs have been quite fluid over the last 3 months, with FAs and rookies moving the most. Most of my exposures are structurally driven, rather than player take driven. Especially at this point in the game, pre-draft.
But there are some players I simply couldn't avoid going heavy on, like McBride and Andrews in the 5th round. I'm actually quite heavy all of the top TEs, minus LaPorta and Kincaid. I also tried to make sure I had at least 1 TE by the end of round 8, with Ferguson being the last of the group.
Also took approaches like attacking Nabers and Odunze harder than MHJ, at their relative prices.
What do we like and not like?
Rookie season is also upon us. Redraft is still 3.5 months away from heating up, but there will be rookie drafts, dynasty startups, and best ball drafts leading up until then.
Good luck to all, and may injuries and variance be kind.
That's why the strategy yields a lot of duds. With the caveat that we are only 2 weeks through the season and some of these guys could still work out, for every Pollard or BRob there is a Chase Brown or Rico Dowdle. For every Mondre, there is a Zamir White. For every Aaron Jones, there is a Swift.
Best ball is a volume game more than anything, imo. It's like poker tournaments. You take a lot of flips and eventually, everything will line up. But even when it does, you may still not win against the overall variance. Since best ball is only one slate per year, the unfortunate part is the long run in best ball can be really long, with a lot of drafters likely never fully realizing equity over a lifetime.
Hahaha
Shaheed 17 game pace.
77 targets, 60 catches, 1,437 yards, 17 TDs.
That's why the strategy yields a lot of duds. With the caveat that we are only 2 weeks through the season and some of these guys could still work out, for every Pollard or BRob there is a Chase Brown or Rico Dowdle. For every Mondre, there is a Zamir White. For every Aaron Jones, there is a Swift.
Best ball is a volume game more than anything, imo. It's like poker tournaments. You take a lot of flips and eventually, everything will li
Ironically even though I wasn't a Chase Brown or Rico guy I think these guy's are gonna end up being fantasy relevant because the guy in front is not good.
I think best ball is survival of the fittest. We are already seeing a ridiculous amount of injuries. I don't think most of us will be able to take any victory laps until week 15. Ironically, I think those who have CMC may still fair better than the Mason owners. The Mason owners may sneak into the playoffs but be going against a possible healthy CMC. I fully expected Aaron Jones to start the season fast because he is really good when healthy. Swift is just not good. BRob is looking like a stud but Ekeler looks pretty good on his limited touches.
Olave's underlying metrics are still strong. His weeks are coming.
So just imagine when they realize they better scheme for him!
He's going in for me with Deebo and Kupp hitting the med tent
Shaheed is a fine start with a solid weekly ceiling. But there will be floor games. I don't think he will ever be a volume guy.
I have a team with Deebo/Kupp too. It's brutal. JSN will take one spot. My other WRs are Terry, BTJ, and Worthy. Not fun, but will be going BTJ or Worthy. **** Terry.
Speaking of Terry, gross.
Given the trash in the zero RB target area this year, getting a Breece or Bijan is more important than getting Jefferson in the draft. We haven't come close to seeing the best of Bijan. As Cousins gets back into the groove we will see monster Bijan games. You can say the same for Breece. As Jefferson's targets increase so will Darnolds turnovers increase.
Bijan may just be a very good back but not this all world talent we were led to believe for the last 5 years. The guy had so much devy hype it's quite a bar for him to clear.
Start to put Keaton Mitchell on your radars for redraft leagues. It sounds like his rehab from ACL is going well. He has two more weeks on IR. sneak him onto your rosters soon while no one is thinking about him. He is very Achane like. The Ravens need some explosiveness from their back field.
How's that really shallow league with no IR slots going for you?
Non ppr start 2 rb 2wr flex
I have 4 really good rbs but can only start 3: Barkley, kyren, jacobs, mason. I just lost deebo which leaves me with Pickens and worthy as starting wrs, so I want to trade one of my rbs for a wr. Would prefer to trade kyren bc he has decent numbers but the rams are a sinking ship. Who’s a decent wr to target in non ppr: garret wilson, nico, Rashee rice type? Tried for chase and st brown and was rejected
Non ppr start 2 rb 2wr flex
I have 4 really good rbs but can only start 3: Barkley, kyren, jacobs, mason. I just lost deebo which leaves me with Pickens and worthy as starting wrs, so I want to trade one of my rbs for a wr. Would prefer to trade kyren bc he has decent numbers but the rams are a sinking ship. Who’s a decent wr to target in non ppr: garret wilson, nico, Rashee rice type? Tried for chase and st brown and was rejected
Non ppr start 2 rb 2wr flex
I have 4 really good rbs but can only start 3: Barkley, kyren, jacobs, mason. I just lost deebo which leaves me with Pickens and worthy as starting wrs, so I want to trade one of my rbs for a wr. Would prefer to trade kyren bc he has decent numbers but the rams are a sinking ship. Who’s a decent wr to target in non ppr: garret wilson, nico, Rashee rice type? Tried for chase and st brown and was rejected
I have never played standard, so I’m a little out of my depth here, but all 3 seem solid to get in a trade for Kyren
I think I’d be Nico > Wilson > Rice but I have them all kinda close together
Don't see any of the hive mind talking about Jauan Jennings as an add. He's not going to be some league winner but given the continuity he has in the offense and how barren some wires are there are worse adds for an emergency fill in I think. I mean 4 targets from that offense is like 10 Will Levis targets.
Found it - near as I can tell only one guy from this list is available for free
Leaders in first-read target share through 2 weeks (per
@FantasyPtsData
):
Cooper Kupp - 52%
Malik Nabers - 50%
QUENTIN JOHNSTON - 39%
Justin Jefferson - 38%
Davante Adams - 38%
AJ Brown - 37%
Keenan Allen - 35%
Garrett Wilson - 35%
Very interesting stat, may try to add him in my leagues
Bijan may just be a very good back but not this all world talent we were led to believe for the last 5 years. The guy had so much devy hype it's quite a bar for him to clear.
What do you think he'd score playing for the Cards, Cowboys, Bucs, Vikes etc
Seems to me like he'd put up top 5 numbers for his position easy. That Falcons O is just brutal. See Pitts, Kyle
I think the offense looked much improved yesterday (more play action, cousins under center). W1 was a dumpster fire
I also think Bijan looked great. I’d have him as easily a top 5 pick right now
NFL D's look so nasty right now. I love how they've caught up.
I have 3 locked in WR1 already so this move only costs me Josh Palmer and some FAAB $
but this article is exactly the kind of Confirmation Bias I seek.
https://athlonsports.com/nfl/charger-rep...
**snippet below in case you can't view the article **
Statistical Progression Points to Future Success
A closer look at Johnston's stats reveals a notable change in his route usage this season.
He has shifted from predominantly running post and go routes—comprising about 35.5% of his routes last season—to a more diversified route tree that features a larger portion of crossing routes.
The increase in crossing routes from 9.9% last season to 19% this season indicates that the coaching staff is keen on utilizing his speed and versatility to create more opportunities on the field.
Moreover, Johnston has already notched up 41 yards after the catch in just two games, suggesting a favorable trend for his YAC (yards after catch) total, which could surpass last year’s numbers.
What do you think he'd score playing for the Cards, Cowboys, Bucs, Vikes etc
Seems to me like he'd put up top 5 numbers for his position easy. That Falcons O is just brutal. See Pitts, Kyle
Barry Sanders did ok with what he had. Not saying Bijan was expected to be the next Barry Sanders but the kid was getting hype as a generational talent since he's been in High School. He just may be a very good RB. In relation to redraft this year, yeah, of course he's top 5 I was just more talking about the kind of mystique his name carries with him.
And that Atlanta O-Line was putting in some work last night, Allgeier was ripping off plenty of runs.
The funny thing I noticed about the game last night was seemed like a lot of the game it's like the Atlanta pass catchers are not used to playing with a competent QB. Guys pulling up on routes not expecting to get the ball, comeback route pulled up a yard short and the ball is high as they were supposed to go that 1 or 2 yards deeper. If Kirk stays healthy, this should be an ascending offense as they start clicking more.
Guys for your benefit just put Mongidig on ignore. He's a politard rage bait/completly illogical poster. I was surprised when he appeared here and actually seemed to be posting genuinely at first but that seems to have changed.
Barry Sanders did ok with what he had. Not saying Bijan was expected to be the next Barry Sanders but the kid was getting hype as a generational talent since he's been in High School. He just may be a very good RB. In relation to redraft this year, yeah, of course he's top 5 I was just more talking about the kind of mystique his name carries with him.
And that Atlanta O-Line was putting in some work last night, Allgeier was ripping off plent
Hoping that game winning drive last night will help them get into a rhythm moving forward. Inserting Cousins plus an entirely new coaching staff is a big change.
I still don't like what I've seen from Pitts, but Bijan and London should be able to get there, at least.
Bijan may just be a very good back but not this all world talent we were led to believe for the last 5 years. The guy had so much devy hype it's quite a bar for him to clear.
I think he is an "all world talent". Last year he played on a team with horrific QB play. This year Cousins was extremely rusty weak one but looks to be getting it going after week two. I can easily see him and Breece fighting it out for RB 1 this year. He'll start getting more TD's as this team gets it together to go with his solid run yardage and pass catching.
Moss is clear 1A to start the season but Brown quickly overtakes him cause Moss just sucks is my take.
Looking like Auiyk to the Steelers is on. RIP Pickens value big up Debo
Moss has been decent and is clearly the number one on this team. There is no 1a thing going on. The love for Chase Brown was based on one play where he showed his speed. I think Moss will get better and better as this team gets it together. The Bengals seem to start out slowly every year. They need Higgins back.
Aiyuk was never going to the Steelers. There was no way the Niners were gonna let him go during their Super Bowl window. There was no way Aiyuk was gonna go to a team which at the time had Russel wilson as the QB and Arthur Smith as the OC.
Hoping that game winning drive last night will help them get into a rhythm moving forward. Inserting Cousins plus an entirely new coaching staff is a big change.
I still don't like what I've seen from Pitts, but Bijan and London should be able to get there, at least.
That last drive was almost Mahomes like how quickly they moved down the field. I think it's gonna take a while for the young talent on the Eagles defense to gel.
The drop by Barkley cost a lot of people a lot of money last night. I think the Eagles should have just ran it on third and gone for it on 4th if need be. That being said, it was a perfect call that just wasn't executed.
Is Pitts just not good at football?
He just never looks comfortable or fluid.
He doesn’t have the skills to either be a full-time TE or a full-time WR, and he’s asked to spend time at both positions.
He’s also mostly a downfield receiver, which doesn’t lend to many easy touch opportunities.
My hope was that he’d essentially be the WR2, maybe WR1 over London if he was good enough with Cousins. So far, Mooney and Ray-Ray are producing more.
Hopefully the coaches can figure out how to get him more involved.
