2024 Fantasy Football Thread
Welcome to the 2024 fantasy season, where I'm officially addicted to best ball. I've been drafting since the end of January. Through 95 drafts, my exposures are below. The player order is based on current ADP. Some of these ADPs have been quite fluid over the last 3 months, with FAs and rookies moving the most. Most of my exposures are structurally driven, rather than player take driven. Especially at this point in the game, pre-draft.
But there are some players I simply couldn't avoid going heavy on, like McBride and Andrews in the 5th round. I'm actually quite heavy all of the top TEs, minus LaPorta and Kincaid. I also tried to make sure I had at least 1 TE by the end of round 8, with Ferguson being the last of the group.
Also took approaches like attacking Nabers and Odunze harder than MHJ, at their relative prices.
What do we like and not like?
Rookie season is also upon us. Redraft is still 3.5 months away from heating up, but there will be rookie drafts, dynasty startups, and best ball drafts leading up until then.
Good luck to all, and may injuries and variance be kind.
Just for clarity, I didn’t mean stroud was the same level qb as Goff, I just meant last year they were somewhat comparable. Obviously Stroud is going to be a top top qb in the NFL.
I’d only put the following WRs for sure ahead of Nico
JJ, Chase, Reek, CD, AJB
Adams was my number 1 wr for a long time but I think he’s a tier below that group now at age 32
What's the saying about the bold being rewarded? If that's where you have him ranked, even what other people would consider an overpay is still a nice discount by your grade, you should snatch him up. Like those 2 1sts. I can make 4 1st round picks and easily botch them and not hit on a Nico. It's money well spent for an elite wr.
It’s still none of them. Pacheco was an RB2 getting a majority of the work.
Also, if they really preferred Hunt, they would have already chosen him over keeping Steele and signing Perine.
It probably is non of them. In a week or two Hunt may have his chance. He doesn't have to be his old self to take over the job. He should be motivated to be back and show what he can do. He may also be a zero but I just have a feeling. The hive mind is already saying he won't be the guy which makes me feel better that he might be the guy.
They signed Perine before Pacheco went down with injury. They had no need for Hunt at the time. They may have liked what they saw in Steele at the time but that can change when they get Hunt in the building. Also, Hunt is more versatile than Steele. With Pacheco they had a guy who could catch balls on first or second down. Hunt can do that as well with Perine probably being the third down back. The hive left Kamara for dead we'll see how this plays out.
Most common 2 and 3 player pairs in BBM, which can probably be extrapolated to most other contests with a decent confidence.
There are some ugly 3 player pairings.
Trevor/Kirk/Engram.....Gross! I had a hard fade on Kirk until he started to drop to the late 5th. Somehow I ended up with 9% of him. Just disgustingly stupid. The good news is that I was never able to get Engram who I was high on.
I haven't heard of anybody who is doing well with their best ball teams. I think it's best not to look at your teams right now. It's like looking at your 401k during a down market.
There are some ugly 3 player pairings.
Trevor/Kirk/Engram.....Gross! I had a hard fade on Kirk until he started to drop to the late 5th. Somehow I ended up with 9% of him. Just disgustingly stupid. The good news is that I was never able to get Engram who I was high on.
I haven't heard of anybody who is doing well with their best ball teams. I think it's best not to look at your teams right now. It's like looking at your 401k during a down m
I’m doing well so far but it’s far too early . Tho I did cash the 4 week contest I did on dk .
Shaheed is for real. They are putting him in motion and giving him lay up throws. He is not just a vertical guy anymore. They are getting the ball into his hands and letting him use his speed. I only have 3.5% of him. I did not foresee this offensive explosion for the Saints.
I’m at a slightly higher advance rate than expected and I have some really high scoring tms…It’s only been 2 weeks so it literally doesn’t matter at all…
I can’t tell if you’re just extremely pessimistic or what your deal is. You seem to be very upset with how you drafted and are mad at YouTube personalities, I guess, for your own choices… it’s pretty bizarre
I’m starting to agree with the guy that posted negatively about you earlier…
What's a good advance rate on DK?
If you wanna make consistent money in fantasy, despite having margins of error, play a high volume of head-to-head DFS contests. I cashed in nearly 70% of my head-to-heads in Week 2 totaling (IIRC) something like 3.3 points from my WR3 and TE.
My fix is season long drafting, so best ball is perfect. I’m already looking forward to the contests opening at the end of January lol.
I wish I could get into DK or UD DFS contests, but I just don’t find them fun.
Hey guys just wanted to see what your opinions are regarding the popular fantasy football shows that are out on YouTube or podcasts. I listen to quite a few of them, but to be more time efficient, I'd want to narrow it down. I'd like a balance between good information, but also entertainment, as some of these guys can be way too dorky and hard to listen to. I'll list a few that I follow and give some brief points.
Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry - seems like a pretty solid and well produced show. Berry is on a better show now compared to the ESPN one with Field Yates and those other dorks. His co-hosts Jay and Connor are decent as well.
Fantasy Footballers - Three guys who have good opinions and have a good chemistry amongst each other.
CBS Sports Fantasy Football Today - a mix of personalities that rotate, with Adam Aizer as the main host. Some of the guys are ok, but I find that Dan Schneider guy to be an annoying dork.
Big Dog's Gotta Eat (BDGE) - Nick Ercolano is pretty solid with his takes and seems like a cool guy. I remember him really being on Kyren going into the week 2 waivers last year, even though there were other names that were fools gold like Gainwell and Joshua Kelley.
NFL Fantasy Live - Always viewed it as more of an entertainment show than serious fantasy analysis. I saw a clip recently where Mike F Florio is wearing a very strange hairstyle compared to his usual look.
Fantasy Pros - These guys seem like one of the more hardcore fantasy shows, but alot of these guys sound dorky and can be hard to listen to for long stretches. They had a take this pre-season of Chase Brown being the RB in Cincinnati over Zack Moss and they were so convinced of it. I have no idea how they got that idea and then were so off about it. I understand that people will be wrong about their takes, but why were they have such a strong opinion about it? That burned me listening to them on that one.
Yahoo - They have some decent shows. Matt Harmon seems like a decent guy to listen to.
Establish the Run - These guys seem pretty knowledgable. Adam Levitan can seem a bit nerdy and cocky about his takes at times. Silva seems like a knowledgable guy.
Flock Fantasy - Mason puts out content pretty regularly and it analysis seems pretty reasonable.
Mayo Media Network - I have a bit of brand loyalty to Pat Mayo since his show was around when I first started fantasy in 2015. His content is decent and he can be funny. The gimmick with Tim seems very outdated and weak.
Sal Vetri - seems like a guy who is knowledgable about gambling and fantasy.
Sal seems like a used car salesman or something to me. He had a string of horrendous takes last year and I've cleansed him from my algo. Just a personal thing though.
I'd say get Tarheels to post his curated twitter follows then pick one or two of the shows you like for entertainment and stick with them. They pretty much all regurgitate the same stuff.
Also make sure you follow a couple of the doctors. I like that Deepak guy.
I like ETR + Kerane/Sherman for actual info
last Sunday, Braelon Allen had 7 carries and 4 targets to Hall's 14 carries and 8 targets
might we see Allen get a slightly higher % of the overall work bc this is a short week for the NYJ?
Do we want any parts of Alec Pierce? Seems odd to have the WR8 still on waivers after week2 but I guess that's what happens when your QB is completing less than 50%, has more INT than TD and he is the 2nd option for targets on a team built around the run - oh and Josh Downs probably coming back soon.
Given all that, at what point do you look his pace of 68-1538-17 and think 'there may be some value here'?
