2024 Fantasy Football Thread
Welcome to the 2024 fantasy season, where I'm officially addicted to best ball. I've been drafting since the end of January. Through 95 drafts, my exposures are below. The player order is based on current ADP. Some of these ADPs have been quite fluid over the last 3 months, with FAs and rookies moving the most. Most of my exposures are structurally driven, rather than player take driven. Especially at this point in the game, pre-draft.
But there are some players I simply couldn't avoid going heavy on, like McBride and Andrews in the 5th round. I'm actually quite heavy all of the top TEs, minus LaPorta and Kincaid. I also tried to make sure I had at least 1 TE by the end of round 8, with Ferguson being the last of the group.
Also took approaches like attacking Nabers and Odunze harder than MHJ, at their relative prices.
What do we like and not like?
Rookie season is also upon us. Redraft is still 3.5 months away from heating up, but there will be rookie drafts, dynasty startups, and best ball drafts leading up until then.
Good luck to all, and may injuries and variance be kind.
TL;DR: my cousin-in-law is in 3 leagues I run and he auto-drafted all 3 leagues after saying he could draft all 3 nights. A couple league mates have bitched about it. What do you do about it if anything?
I run 3 leagues and my cousin's husband is in all 3 of my leagues (we are fairly close - ie see each 5-8 times a year). He pays on time, never complains, is massively -EV in FF, but he auto-drafted all 3 of the drafts.
One is an auction keep 3 league where he drafted for the first 30 minutes but auto-drafted the rest which resulted him drafting josh allen, burrow, prescott & trevor lawrence in a 1 QB league and only used 223 of the 300 budget.
Another league is a must keep 11 players league (for as long as you want) and he kept burrow & baker then auto-drafted the whole time and added goff & young to his QB room and drafted 4 defenses. Autodraft used $38 out of his $540 budget ($33 for zeke and $1 for the rest).
He auto-ed the 3rd but it was snake so his team isn't horrible.
A month or so before the season I always send out a doodle for people to fill out which days they can draft. He confirmed he could draft on all 3 nights but essentially no showed them all. He's been in 1 or more of my leagues for 7+ years and I think auto-draft one league (of the 3) the last 2 years. My question is as a league manager do you do anything about it?
TL;DR: my cousin-in-law is in 3 leagues I run and he auto-drafted all 3 leagues after saying he could draft all 3 nights. A couple league mates have bitched about it. What do you do about it if anything?
I run 3 leagues and my cousin's husband is in all 3 of my leagues (we are fairly close - ie see each 5-8 times a year). He pays on time, never complains, is massively -EV in FF, but he auto-drafted all 3 of the drafts.
One is an auction keep
He sounds like free money . Why are people complaining ?
Any Jags fans out there? WTH is going on with Kirk?
If it’s a 12 team league with usual scheduling settings, the loudest complainers are probably the folks who don’t get to play against him twice during the regular season 😉
We randomize the schedule each year so some guys get to play him twice so that is part of the issue. One of the complainers mentioned that he needed a QB and the auto-drafter got 4.
My thought has always been to take the free money.
He’s been in 1 league 2 years (never cashed), another league 7 years (never cashed) and another year 11 years (only money he’s ever won is from our pay out of $5 per regular season win).
At the end of the day, almost all home leagues are for fun and bragging rights more than finding $ edges.
If there are enough complainers, I’d probably just boot him from the leagues next season. Less BS for you to listen to, as well. I’ve done it before with good friends in home leagues who would auto draft and/or not set lineups.
Yea but let’s see how he does when Higgins comes back .
no doubt. JOE has a ton of mouths to feed if all the pass catchers are healthy
that said, new OC Dan Pitcher looks to be leaning heavily into 12/13 personnel
additionally, All, Jr. also has the makings of a pretty good TE. i know the FO and coaching staff are high on the youngster
All has a lot of potential. He did come from TE U. Just needs his spine to hold up.
Jajuan Jennings could be a sneaky play this week with kittle now prob out too
TL;DR: my cousin-in-law is in 3 leagues I run and he auto-drafted all 3 leagues after saying he could draft all 3 nights. A couple league mates have bitched about it. What do you do about it if anything?
I run 3 leagues and my cousin's husband is in all 3 of my leagues (we are fairly close - ie see each 5-8 times a year). He pays on time, never complains, is massively -EV in FF, but he auto-drafted all 3 of the drafts.
One is an auction keep
If they're long running competitive leagues and not super casual I'd put him on super probation. One more auto draft without some proof of a major emergency and you're out of that league. Ideally this probation is for life but could possibly entertain an appeal after 10 years.
I upped my dynasty offer for Nico to:
2 1sts
1 2nd
Ridley (he’s about to be 0-3 (started mondre and is projected to lose by 40), but I feel like psychologically ppl don’t wanna tank this early so I figured if I throw in a startable player maybe it’ll push it over the edge)
I forgot how hard it is to trade in fantasy football
Guess this new Jets RB was underrated in dynasty league drafts. He looks good.
What about every other team in the league that has a dire rb situation? Why didn’t any of them sign hunt?
It’s completely possible that Hunt isn’t trash, but all the evidence points to him being done
What other teams have a dire RB situation? Either a team has a capable backup or they don't. The Niners have one. The Chiefs probably don't. Perine is more of a passing downs specialist. We don't know what Steele can be.
Why didn't other teams sign Hunt? There can be many reasons. It's possible teams did approach Hunt but he declined. Perhaps teams wanted to see what they had in house first. As a veteran free agent Hunt is in position to be picky as to where he goes and what type of contract he gets. It's not a coincidence that the Chiefs are giving him a look. They know he is a stellar pass protector. They know he is a capable receiving back. They know he is an excellent goal line back. The Chiefs are simply looking for a guy who can keep their offense operational.
What evidence points to Hunt being done? I hate to keep bringing this up but this is hive mind type of talk. It's a given that at the age of 29 Hunt is not the same player that he was. The people who point out that Hunt had a career low yards per carry fail to point out that he had a career high in TD's. He was nearly automatic scoring a TD inside the 5 yard line. His receiving numbers were down but that is because Hunt was used more as a power RB. This is also why his YPC was down.
I don't know how this will end up but to dismiss Hunt entirely because the hive thinks he's done is a big mistake.
I knew he was talented but given his age I figured it would take a while for him to get playing time. He is gonna cap the upside of Breece. I was team Breece but I would now move Bijan ahead of him. In fact I probably would move Breece down to the Barkley/Achane tier.
What evidence points to Hunt being done? I hate to keep bringing this up but this is hive mind type of talk. It's a given that at the age of 29 Hunt is not the same player that he was. The people who point out that Hunt had a career low yards per carry fail to point out that he had a career high in TD's. He was nearly automatic scoring a TD inside the 5 yard line. His receiving numbers were down but that is because Hunt was used more as a p
Ahh yes, the guy who ran hot and scored 9 TDs and still only averaged 7.9 PPR fpts/gm over 15 games. One of the above stats is sticky; the other isn't.
Hunt hasn't played more than 50% of the snaps in a game since w1 of 2022. He might have a game here or there, but the Chiefs are likely to pass more while still remaining gimmicky at the goal line.
You realize a lot of thought and analysis is based on metrics and not just vibes, right? People look at stats like Y/C, Y/R, rushing success rate, RYOE, etc., on top of also factoring in recent production, age, situation, etc. Given the reliability of a lot of those stats, most sharp analysis is going to come to the same conclusion.
I still don't expect any back to consolidate this backfield rendering them all unstartable. We'll see how it goes.
Ahh yes, the guy who ran hot and scored 9 TDs and still only averaged 7.9 PPR fpts/gm over 15 games. One of the above stats is sticky; the other isn't.
Hunt hasn't played more than 50% of the snaps in a game since w1 of 2022. He might have a game here or there, but the Chiefs are likely to pass more while still remaining gimmicky at the goal line.
You realize a lot of thought and analysis is based on metrics and not just vibes, right?
I'm not arguing that Hunt will be a league winner or even significantly fantasy relevant. My point is that I don't think he should be dismissed as a potential fantasy asset just because the numbers say so. You realize a lot of stats are taken out of context right? He may have averaged 7.9 PPR points on the Browns but that doesn't mean that's what he'll do on the Chiefs. I've seen this too many times where the "smart" people leave a player for dead and then when given the opportunity that player comes back to life. I can't say with certainty what will happen here. I do see the path for Hunt to be the guy while Pacheco is out.
I was simply responding to your post taking stats out of context, which is the only reason I cited his fantasy production on the Browns in the first place. He had a career high in TDs, after all!
This is a game where you have to make decisions in a vacuum. When deciding to pickup a player like Hunt you're spending FAAB/waiver priority while dropping another player to do so. So of course we always need to consider the possibility of whether Hunt, or anyone else, can be a fantasy asset or not.
People chased Dalvin Cook and Le'Veon Bell and Leonard Fournette and whoever else. Austin Ekeler went from the RB 1 overall in 2022 to dusty vet in 2023 to backup in 2024. The RB cliff is steep and fast. This is an expected value game with trade offs. In the long run, you'll do better making decisions based on metrics and expectation. It's impossible to be 100% correct, so we chase directional accuracy. I'll be wrong plenty; everyone will. But the goal is to be right more often than not.
