Ukraine-Russia War Take 2
Here is what the preliminary take on the Ukraine thread disappearing is:
The site was hit with a massive spam attack where hundreds of spam threads were created. In the case where, for example, I see a single spam thread and delete it, that is called a soft delete, and mods can still see them but forum members cannot. Those deletion can be undone.
When a massive attack hits with hundreds of threads, an admin uses a different procedure where the hundreds of spam threads are merged and then hard deleted, where the threads are gone, and no note is left behind. As I have mentioned with my own experience of just soft deleting a large number of posts, sometimes a post or thread gets checked or merged accidentally and is deleted by mistake. Dealing with hundreds of spam threads takes a sledgehammer, not a scalpel.
It appears that our Ukraine thread may have gotten caught up in that recent net of spam threads. If so, it is likely gone for good. I cant say this for sure, and am awaiting comments from admins on this issue. Yes, this sucks. And hopefully there was some other software glitch that caused the disappearance, and we may recover it in the future.
But in the meantime, I have created this new Ukraine-Russia War thread to enable the conversation to continue. Obviously continuity with earlier discussions will be lost. There is no way around that. So as best as possible, let's pick up the conversation with recent events and go from there.
If you have any questions about this, please post them in the mod thread, not here. Let's keep this thread going with posts about the war, not the disappearance of the old thread.
Thanks.
I called out this bull crap from day one. There's no way for Ukraine to win this war if they are not in Nato or they don't have their own Nukes.
Innocent Ukrainian soldiers are chicken feed, casualties of Zelensky and Biden, who would prefer to stay on a power trip.
It’s putins fault lmao stfu
any opposition to this war is "Putin propaganda" so whatever
No, not all opposition to this war is Putin propaganda. You're spreading that false narrative because you get your propaganda from sources who get it directly from the Kremlin and hate it when you get called out for it, so your defense mechanism is that "well that's just what they say to anything" but it's not. You are constantly quoting propaganda directly from the Kremlin.
I agree with the overall sentiment but I have no idea what "summer offensive" actually means anymore. Russia has not slowed down since taking Avdiivka, they are throwing everything they have at Ukraine. This is likely because they fear ammo could make it to Ukraine soon, and also to make it difficult to prepare defenses, but the costs Russia is incurring is enormous.
I don't think there is going to be any kind of pause and a big push this s
Kofman addressed this on an episode yesterday. No one knows what will happen this summer, it could be anything from a "sure of effort" to an attempt to returning to normal tactics used in an offensive, although likely with hastily trained troops.
Russia is definitely not winning this war. They have already lost it. Now it's a matter of how much destruction they can inflict on Ukraine because Putin's philosophy is that if he can't have something then it should be destroyed. The more Russia loses the better as it will help stop their future imperialist ambitions by teaching the lessons Snyder mentions.
oh Russia lost. good. I guess we can all go home.
It's 4 sentences! How do you stop after sentence 2?
presumably Snyders not stupid enough to believe the crap he spews but I am sure he gets compensated well by his handlers.
but I sure do love deterrent arguments. thats always a good plan!
30 years ago in a dark room, the CIA decided to decided to play Snyder in a historian role where he would dedicate his career to European history with a focus on Ukraine. His handlers then concocted a way to lure Putin into invading Ukraine knowing that at the perfect moment they could release their secret weapon: a historian of Ukrainian history.
He doesn't have handlers you absolute muppet.
It's not a deterrent argument either, listen to it.
you dont understand how these people get coopted and used
Victor: This is 911, what's your emergency?
Caller: There's a person in my yard throwing rocks at my house and destroying things.
Victor: He went there with the goal of throwing rocks and destroying things? Doesn't sound likely.
Caller: Well no, he tried to break in and do horrible things to me and my family, but he failed. Now he's super angry and trying to destroy my house.
Victor: Sounds like you already won, good. We can all go home.
Enlighten me on how Snyder has been coopted and used. Who are his handlers?
Be precise. Back it up with evidence.
ya bro Ill get right on that
We characterize the contemporary Russian model for propaganda as “the firehose of falsehood” because of two of its distinctive features: high numbers of channels and messages and a shameless willingness to disseminate partial truths or outright fictions.
I guess spreading Russian propaganda for Putin wasn't enough and your handlers asked you to start making your own.
“The point of modern propaganda isn’t only to misinform or push an agenda. It is to exhaust your critical thinking, to annihilate truth.” Kasparov
Absolutely shameless.
Russia is definitely not winning this war. They have already lost it. Now it's a matter of how much destruction they can inflict on Ukraine because Putin's philosophy is that if he can't have something then it should be destroyed. The more Russia loses the better as it will help stop their future imperialist ambitions by teaching the lessons Snyder mentions.
they have lost the "easy denazification special operation" but they have the donbass, that's not a loss.
Continually reducing goals until the goals reflect the current situation is not a win. They tried to conquer the country, overthrow the government, and do whatever they wished to the people. They failed. If Putin could go back in time and be told "This is what will happen to your military, your economy, your world standing and your country, but you'll have control of approximately 20% of Ukraine" he would not take that deal.
It's not nothing, but it's definitely not a win. Anyone trying to declare it as a win it will be extremely transparent.
Continually reducing goals until the goals reflect the current situation is not a win. They tried to conquer the country, overthrow the government, and do whatever they wished to the people. They failed. If Putin could go back in time and be told "This is what will happen to your military, your economy, your world standing and your country, but you'll have control of approximately 20% of Ukraine" he would not take that deal.
It's not nothing
We don't know what the original plan actually was tbh, and we shouldn't take putin words for it.
There might have been a moment when he thought Kiev could be his yes, but i think that the intention always was to at least take donbass.
From there, i am not even sure Ukraine is of his interest anymore for now, i think he wants to destabilize Georgia and Moldova now.
Being able to wrap it up with Ukraine, keeping donbass, and then move to transnistria and/or georgia after he rebuilds a little at home, would definitely be a win for him, and if we "make a deal" that lets him keep donbass like victor wants, he is going to win
We know that was his original plan.
What you're describing is 'Continually reducing goals until the goals reflect the current situation'.
