2024 Fantasy Football Thread
Welcome to the 2024 fantasy season, where I'm officially addicted to best ball. I've been drafting since the end of January. Through 95 drafts, my exposures are below. The player order is based on current ADP. Some of these ADPs have been quite fluid over the last 3 months, with FAs and rookies moving the most. Most of my exposures are structurally driven, rather than player take driven. Especially at this point in the game, pre-draft.
But there are some players I simply couldn't avoid going heavy on, like McBride and Andrews in the 5th round. I'm actually quite heavy all of the top TEs, minus LaPorta and Kincaid. I also tried to make sure I had at least 1 TE by the end of round 8, with Ferguson being the last of the group.
Also took approaches like attacking Nabers and Odunze harder than MHJ, at their relative prices.
What do we like and not like?
Rookie season is also upon us. Redraft is still 3.5 months away from heating up, but there will be rookie drafts, dynasty startups, and best ball drafts leading up until then.
Good luck to all, and may injuries and variance be kind.
Got one more on DK. Didn’t get any bring backs on the main stacks unfortunately
Qb - Caleb, Baker, Maye
Rb - Bijan, Javonte, C Brown, Dowdle, Gibson, Pierce
Wr - Olave, Aiyuk, Dell, Godwin, Nuk, Odunze, Polk, McMillan, Bourne
Te - Andrews, Otton
According to offseason reports, Stidham was the best QB in camp but Nix wasn't far behind him. It sounds like Nix is on schedule to start from a knowing the play book stand point. Stidham is in a tough spot because if it's at all close the job goes to Nix. There's a good chance Denver has a top 5 pick next year so they will want to see what they have in Nix.
Don't think it can ever be a bad idea to wait on TE.
These are the top 10 WRs, RBs, and TEs by fantasy ranks from the last 2 years along with their ADP.
It clearly shows the likelihood of drafting a top 10 TE past round 7 is much greater than doing so at RB or WR.
What I mean by "late" is in situations where you feel you need a 4th TE. Last year it may have worked out for you. This years prospects don't look as good. Besides Bowers there are no legit upside TE rookies going late. Also, there is an opportunity cost of waiting this year. Elite TE's are cheap this year. There are more solid TE options as well. Last year there was more of a path for a late round TE to emerge. We knew Mcbride, Kincaide and Laporta all had the skills. Unfortunately, a couple of potential upside guys in Juan Johnson and Tucker Kraft are coming into the season injured.
I still can't stop drafting Juwan, although, he's been more of a 3rd TE than a 2nd TE in my builds since he got injured.
What I mean by "late" is in situations where you feel you need a 4th TE. Last year it may have worked out for you. This years prospects don't look as good. Besides Bowers there are no legit upside TE rookies going late. Also, there is an opportunity cost of waiting this year. Elite TE's are cheap this year. There are more solid TE options as well. Last year there was more of a path for a late round TE to emerge. We knew Mcbride, Kincaide an
It's not just last year. It was the year before as well, and the year before that.
A TE drafted past round 9 is more likely to have top 10 upside than a WR or RB drafted past round 9.
I'm not saying to never draft a TE early. I've mixed in some early picks and will continue to do so as well.
I really like the group of Ferg, Bowers and Njoku and try to have at least 1 TE by this point.
Goedert and Muth are solid too. I think both are undervalued.
I usually pass on Schultz, Kmet, Hock and Musgrave.
I like Henry, Otton, Fant, Jonnu, Juwan, etc. With that said, I’d prefer these guys as my TE2/3 rather than starting with them.
Been a while since I did a RB/RB build to start. Wanted Jonnu as my TE3, but got sniped.
QB - Purdy, Watson, Maye
RB - Bijan, Achane, Singletary, Chandler, Elijah
WR - Deebo, Cooper, Ridley, Rice, Jamo, Slayton, Malik, Gallup
TE - Kittle, Henry, Gesicki
I try to grab one of the top 7 if not I prioritize Bowers.
Sometimes I grab elite + Bowers
I think this years TEs are quite a bit different than the last couple years where I was more willing to go late
I think it’s a very big mistake not to grab elite te this year
Here are my UD exposures (I don’t love Sinnott or woods, but I have a lot of AR and Jayden)
I’m not quite as high at the top, but still playing a similar game for the most part, just stretching it more to the top 11. My Muth exposure is usually with him as my TE2.
This also doesn’t include my pending slows, superflex or pre-draft contests.
Andrews was my highest drafted player at 21% through 95 pre-draft contests. Was also on Pitts at 14%. That was back when he was going in the 90s/100s before the Cousins signing. I had 14% Mayer. He was going to be the key to late round TE this year without Bowers.
Wow my highest owned tes are 28% muth and Ferguson .
Hopefully those two pay off for both of us!
With the volume I’m putting in, I probably won’t be 20%+ exposure on anyone.
My highest right now is 17%. 4 players: BTJ, Maye, Worthy, and Khalil.
But I will start consolidating some as we get more training camp news and work through preseason.
My RBs are now the only ones I have over 20%, which Ive been trying to lower bc that feels like a mistake especially given the chaos that can happen at that position
Hopefully those two pay off for both of us!
With the volume I’m putting in, I probably won’t be 20%+ exposure on anyone.
My highest right now is 17%. 4 players: BTJ, Maye, Worthy, and Khalil.
But I will start consolidating some as we get more training camp news and work through preseason.
Lol me . I have like 52% Rashaad White . And I’ve done about 90 drafts already .
Might have waited too long on RB, hence why I went with 8.
QB - Hurts, Caleb
RB - Javonte, Chase, Charb, Lloyd, Hubbard, CEH, Sermon, Gray
WR - AJ, London, DJ, Hollywood, Ridley, Odunze, Tolbert
TE - Engram, Likely, Fant
Might have waited too long on RB, hence why I went with 8.
QB - Hurts, Caleb
RB - Javonte, Chase, Charb, Lloyd, Hubbard, CEH, Sermon, Gray
WR - AJ, London, DJ, Hollywood, Ridley, Odunze, Tolbert
TE - Engram, Likely, Fant
If you hit on a rb or two you are good. Though id have taken a rb over Rome
Qb : Dak, Baker
Rb : Saquon , Kamara , Ekeler, Spears, Estime
Wr: Harrison , Dj Moore , Pittman , Godwin , Jeudy , Bateman , Demarcus Robinson , Mims, Slayton , Rondale
Te: Ferguson , Hock , Otton
Hopefully those two pay off for both of us!
With the volume I’m putting in, I probably won’t be 20%+ exposure on anyone.
My highest right now is 17%. 4 players: BTJ, Maye, Worthy, and Khalil.
But I will start consolidating some as we get more training camp news and work through preseason.
Does Khalil = Herbert or shakir?
Oops, forgot about Shakir lol.
It’s Khalil Herbert.
It's not just last year. It was the year before as well, and the year before that.
A TE drafted past round 9 is more likely to have top 10 upside than a WR or RB drafted past round 9.
I'm not saying to never draft a TE early. I've mixed in some early picks and will continue to do so as well.
I'm just pointing out the different landscape at TE this year compared to previous years.
That’s part of my bias, since he was on my Puppy 3 finals squad.
But I’m also bullish on the change in OC plus lack of target competition behind Olave.
