2024 ELECTION THREAD

looks like Trump's people got to him and convinced him that Georgia might be at issue and now he's calling Brian Kemp a great guy after 4 years of talking crap on him

This BlueMaga joke truly never gets old. It's the greatest joke in history of our species. I can't get enough it. It's hysterical funny every time. And I'm sure it will be hysterically funny the next 2000 times. And if you say it is a "helluva drug," that just takes the joke to new level that I thought was unattainable. More please. I'm begging for it.

seems like more of a comment than a joke, but

Today ends the 4th 8 day period since Biden stepped down and handed the reins over to Kamala (K). Kamala's gains have slowed in swing states to the point where she gained only 0.3% on average in all of them .

The first 8 days after Biden stepped down, Kamala gained 1.9% on average in the 9 swing states (AZ, FL, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA, VA, and WI). The next 8 days she gained 2.3% on average. Then after announcing Walz as her VP she gained 1.3% on average. And in the last 8 days leading up and including the DNC, she gained only 0.3% on average (I didn't count ME 2nd District and NE 2nd District as part of the overall averages because they are only 1 electoral vote each, but had they been counted Kamala would have averaged a 1.8% gain).

Its the first time Kamala lost ground in some of the swing states to Trump (T) per 538.com. There was only 1 poll for swing states that includes data from 8/19-8/21 which was in NC.

For the following MC = Multi-Candidates that aren't K or T. Un = Undecided, the Net Gains noted are for the last 8 days not overall.

Kamala gained in 3 swing states and 2 Districts (in ME and NE) over the last 8 days while Trump lost ground. In all 4 of the 5 cases Kamala has now taken over the lead:
AZ: K up by 1.5% (45.8% to 44.3% with 5.2% MC and 4.7% Un). Net gain of 0.9% for K (K+0.5%, T-0.4%)
ME 2: K now up by 5% (49% to 44% with 4% MC and 3% Un). Net gain of 9% for K (K+9%, T no change). This was the same pollster from several weeks ago.
NC: K now up by 0.4% (45.8% to 45.4% with 3.7% MC and 5.1% Un). Net gain of 1% for K (K+0.4%, T-0.6%).
NE 2: K now up by 6.5% (48.5% to 42% with 4.5% MC and 5% Un). Net gain of 6.5% for K (K+6.5%, T no change). Biden was tied in latest poll before these 2 MC polls this week.
NV: K now up by 0.6% (45% to 44.4% with 5% MC and 5.6% Un). Net gain of 0.8% for K (K+0.7%, T-0.1%)

As a result of the above Kamala is now ahead in electoral votes by 304 to 234. It is now unlikely that Kamala will lose ME District 2 and NE District 2. There also was a Maine poll which had the same result, basically a 9% gain, putting Kamala up by 17% (55% to 38% with 4% MC and 3% Un). Maine was no longer a swing state due to a previous poll, though Biden had trailed by 1% in his latest poll.

In all other swing states the leader stayed the same (though by different gains and losses)

Kamala and Trump both gained in 5 swing states in the last 8 days but in some states K gained over T and in others T gained over K.:
FL: T up by 3.8% (47.7 to 43.9% with 4.1% MC and 4.3% Un). Net loss of 0.9% for T (K+1.5%, T+0.6%). Florida should now be considered a swing state.
GA: T up by 0.5% (46.6% to 46.1% with 3% MC and 4.3% Un). Net gain of 0.4% for T (K+0.3%, T+0.7%).
MI: K up by 3.4% (46.9% to 43.5% with 4.7% MC and 4.9% Un). No net gain (or loss...) (K+0.6%, T+0.6%)
PA: K up by 1.8% (46.6% to 44.8% with 4.1% MC and 4.5% Un). Net loss of 0.3% for K (K+0.3%, T+0.6%).
WI: K up by 3.8% (47.9% to 44.1% with 4.1% MC and 3.9% Un). Net gain of 0.3% for K (K+0.6%, T+0.3%)

Though MN is no longer a swing state I wanted to show how it looks now because of Walz :
MN: K up by 9.2% (49.5% to 40.3% with 4.4% MC and 5.8% Un). Net gain of 1.1% for K (K+1.8%, T+0.7%). This state is basically no longer a possible victory for Trump.

One poll came out in VA this past week and it was really bad for Kamala. This was the only swing state where Kamala lost votes. Nate Silver has a graph for VA but 538.com doesn't yet (I'm guessing they will soon):
VA: K up by 4.6% (46.7% to 42.1% with 5.2% MC and 6% Un). Net loss of 0.5% for K (K-0.2%, T+0.3%). I am kind of stunned that Kamala hasn't campaigned in VA...

Typically there will be poll increases for the Democratic candidate after the DNC. However because RFK is likely to announce stepping down and supporting Trump tomorrow, I have no idea how it will affect the polls. If RFK remains on the ballots which I think has to be the case where he has submitted signatures there will still be some small % of people who will vote for him that wouldn't vote for either Trump or Kamala. But a significant % of RFK's support will go to Undecided and a significant % will possibly go to Trump over Kamala. We will have to wait and see.

The other factor that could shed light on this RFK thing is that Kamala does not do as well in Heads Up (HU) polls as she does in MC polls in almost any swing state. The only swing state where Kamala does better HU is in NV. It is a significant difference too but NV is worth only 6 electoral votes. MI and NC are the only other states where Kamala is worse in the HU polls by less than 1.2% than the MC polls. In MI she is 0.4% worse in HU polls and in NC she is 0.1% worse in HU polls. The worst swing state for Kamala HU vs MC is GA where she is worse by 3.3%. So my gut feeling is that GA is not looking good for Kamala right now.

People are wrong all the time. It doesn't mean they are lying.

However, Donald Trump does in fact lie all the time.

Luciom cites people who post here all the time as liars. It isn't true in all likelihood. We are just making mistakes. I have done that twice.

Donald Trump however, isn't making mistakes. He is lying. Intentionally. People around him have said it was made clear to him that he lost the 2020 election. His lawyers filed over 60 cases
to dispute the outcome of elections. Not only did they lose all of those cases (they did win one in PA where the case was about extending the number of days people could correct write in ballots) they did not present any evidence of fraud in any of the cases. In all of the cases challenging election results the judge asked the lawyers if they were submitting evidence about fraud. Not once did they submit any evidence about fraud.

So Trump is obviously clearly lying. And yet Luciom hasn't responded and he also hasn't called Trump out on his lies. To my knowledge. I could be mistaken and maybe Luciom has said Trump lied. But I doubt it. In any case moving forward if Luciom calls anybody here a liar I will again ask him what he thinks about Trump's lies. I will pick new ones each time. I have about 15,000 to choose from when he was President. And apparently at his rallies he is lying over 100 times per rally.

If the dnc can somehow truck along with this same kind of exuberance until election day, id put money on kamala today. But once you take you foot of the gas, trunp is going to gain again - unless he shoots clint eastwood or bangs taylor swift or something.

lol hasan got kicked out of the dnc today

Obama getting the Nobel peace prize was peak bluemaga to me

I just watched Kamala's speech at the DNC and I haven't been moved like this since 2008 when I saw Barack Obama's speech after the NH primary he lost. I cried then and I cried tonight. I think she is going to win and win by a wide margin.

What she said about Israel was incredible. The democrats who are angry about how the Palestinians have been affected by Netanyahu now have a path back to support Kamala.

People who are upset about immigration will now understand that Kamala will do what Trump killed. And she won't do it by separating children from their parents.

She spoke about Trump and called him out for what he is and what he would do in a second term. It wasn't pretty but then what he stands for isn't either.

Trump having an absolute meltdown, Kamala was better than I expected and I expected a lot given her campaign speeches.

Trump is going to run from the debate, he'll look so weak, and Vance is the worst VP pick in modern history.

That said the US is broken and it'll probably still come down to small margins in PA, AZ, GA, WI again, along with whatever ****ery they can do with fake electors/Supreme Court interference.

It's gonna be closer than 2020, with a greater than zero chance the Supreme Court steals the election.

just stole all the Republican positions from the last decade and then went full on genocide support. just an incredibly scary speech.

Didn't watch it, but if Victor and his basement-dwelling brethren hated it, it was probably pretty good.

What'd you think of tonight? Kamala Night was chock full of fear.

Not tasteless, but the previous days themed with joy and motivation to fight was a build up to what their fighting against. And they utilized a lot of fear tactics. Effectively.

I thought Trump would win by a slim margin coming into tonight, but I might be with you. She played the role of president in the realm of 2008 Obama and 1992 Clinton, whereas 2000 Gore and 2004 Kerry were kinda boring and offputting, 2000 Bush was just dumb, 2016 Trump was like a meme stock who beat a largely unlikeable 2016 Clinton.

Effective triangulation. Maybe.

Zionists are gonna say she was too critical of Israel while the Intifada NOW crowd is gonna say that she was was too friendly to Israel.

But those people dont' really matter. I think she effectively spoke to whatever sentiments independents feel. It isn't very nuanced. It's very confused. And independents prefer empathy to ridicule when it comes to their confusion.

I very much agree with you here. I"m an open borders guy, so I disagree with the bill, but the bill is incredibly popular, so riding that wave should be effective.

It's the centrist take that Obama had with healthcare. When he responded to single payer with a public-private partnership, all the GOP had to foil was a stupid voucher program. The only foil the GOP has to the half-measure on immigration proposed by the Dems is mass deportation -- which is a waste of resources to consequentialists and appalling to deontologists.

I think this was weaker than it could've been. She said what Trump will do with reproductive rights, driving up the debt, and healthcare, but lacked specifics on what he'll do with immigration, Ukraine, and the SCOTUS. Unless I missed something.

But if I missed it, how many others did, too?

by Victor P

just stole all the Republican positions from the last decade and then went full on genocide support. just an incredibly scary speech.

I don't know about scary. She's pivoting to "govern from the center" where a lot of independents lie and leaning right on immigration and Israel where Never-Trumper Republicans lie. She's just trying to win an election. Nothing really new to see here.

It isn't appealing to me, but that speech wasn't for me.

by Victor P

just stole all the Republican positions from the last decade and then went full on genocide support. just an incredibly scary speech.

"nothing will change"

Blue maga is basically your lot. Horseshoe theory and all that.

Wait a sec the horror, why would deontologists dislike mass deportation of illegals? It is moral to punish illegal behavior

Aside from the fact that I actually wrote more than once that trump lies all the times, there is the detail that trump does not write in this forum.

Btw it's interesting you say this after I simply pointed out an objective lie.

Was it moral to execute runaway slaves? Imprison people for selling pot? Or for bootlegging during prohibition?

C'mon, man.

I don't consider our immigration system to be legitimate, as a proponent of open borders, so the laws are, therefore, as illegitimate as fugitive slave laws and the prohibition of drugs and alcohol.

Your usage of the term "illegals" shouldn't really be tolerated, either. They're people. Not contraband.

Well open border deontologists would consider deportation immoral sure, now for the vast majority of the people who aren't pro open border, deontologism would require deportation exactly because "consequences be damned".

Illegals shouldn't be tolerated because even if that's the law, given you disagree with it your preferences should rule language. That's a fascist requirement and I disagree with it.

They are people who committed a crime, and keep committing it.

People who rape can be called rapists, people who steal can be called thieves, and people who are illegally in the country can be called illegals.

This isn't true. A deontologist is indifferent to the laws. They would only be guided by their moral compass.

Immigration doesn't inherently harm people. Unlike rape and theft, which are direct violations of people and property. Landlords should be free to rent to whomever they please. Employers should be free to employ whomever they please. No matter which dirt they were born on. People born ont his dirt aren't entitled to all of the jobs on this dirt.

Enslaved people committed the crime of escaping over and over again. Pot dealers committed the crime of selling drugs and kept committing the crime. Bootleggers committed the crime of manufacturing alcohol over and over again. The laws were illegitimate, ergo, their punishments.

You can be anti-immigrant. But peaceably crossing borders isn't a violation of person or property in and of itself. As for those who commit acts of aggression, sure, punish them for it.

A deontologist can, and often will have, a moral that prescribes to follow the law.

Btw the laws you listed weren't illegitimate, they were simply laws you disagree with.

Which is why for two of those things the constitution was amended to make future laws on the topic illegitimate. Which meant they were legitimate before.

A rule of law deontologist is exactly the kind of person who both agrees with capturing fleeing slaves and with arresting slave owners or dealers depending on the law.

Entering a place you are forbidden to entry by the owners of the place is a very basic form of aggression even if you don't use further violence after you are in.

Trespassing borders is identical to trespassing private property.

Being against trespassers isn't the same as being against people who you are ok to enter coming in