2024 ELECTION THREAD
The next presidential race will be here soon! Please see current Bovada odds. Thoughts?
New truly bipartisan poll came out (one democrat and one republican pollster togheter), looking really bad for Biden.
Sample is smallish though
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-el...
As a foreigner, the "improve American image" answer is baffling though, which countries do they have in mind when they answer Trump ?
New truly bipartisan poll came out (one democrat and one republican pollster togheter), looking really bad for Biden.
Sample is smallish though
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-el...
As a foreigner, the "improve American image" answer is baffling though, which countries do they have in mind when they answer Trump ?
It’s like any other questions .
It’s nonsense answers like the one u highlight.
incumbent president’s approval rating in New Hampshire at just 38% — the same survey
found Biden leading Donald Trump in a hypothetical general election match-up, 52% to 45%.
https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show...
Biden and the Democratic Party have a significant cash advantage over Republicans at the moment.
That could change in the coming months, but so far it’s a sign that Democratic donors are
reasonably engaged with the party and that Republicans have some financial vulnerabilities.
What is the current thinking regarding "shy" Trump voters, namely those who intend to vote for him but don't confess to that in polls or otherwise? I remember that being seen as a major factor in why 2016 went the way it did. This time around I feel like with his image somehow worse than it was in 2016, it could be even more prevalent. Add to that the baked in 40-45% people who would still likely vote for Trump even if he personally decapitated their entire family, and I do feel the ingredients are there for him to once again show even better than polls suggest, which, if I'm a democrat and I see those above trends, scares the bejesus out of me.
What is the current thinking regarding "shy" Trump voters, namely those who intend to vote for him but don't confess to that in polls or otherwise? I remember that being seen as a major factor in why 2016 went the way it did. This time around I feel like with his image somehow worse than it was in 2016, it could be even more prevalent. Add to that the baked in 40-45% people who would still likely vote for Trump even if he personally deca
Afaik that's not a thing anymore, people don't feel they have to hide their preferences this round, pollsters don't talk about "shy trump voters" anymore when discussing technicalities and so on.
That at least is my limited understanding of the matter.
Trends are currently slightly positive for democrats because michigan consumer sentiment index is improving really fast & headline inflation is calming down, among other things.
But remember the election is actually only about some specific states, everywhere else it doesn't matter, so national polls can give you a national pulse of the situation, but presidential election outcomes will still be linked uniquely to the opinion of people living in a bunch of so called purple state. The opinion of everyone else doesn't matter.
Afaik that's not a thing anymore, people don't feel they have to hide their preferences this round, pollsters don't talk about "shy trump voters" anymore when discussing technicalities and so on.
That at least is my limited understanding of the matter.
Trends are currently slightly positive for democrats because michigan consumer sentiment index is improving really fast & headline inflation is calming down, among other things.
But remember the
I would agree the economy is performing unbelievable even Larry Kudlow has said that but is the every day American feeling it in their pocketbooks? The overall cost of living is high
The other element that is big is immigration . In many cities your seeing the poorer communities having their rec center's or schools being used fore housing migrants. In New York they are giving out prepaid credit cards to migrants and in California Gavin is spending 3 billion on Universal health care for migrants . Add in all the money for Ukraine and many folks are saying What about me ?
The immigration bill on the table looks pretty good but its no HR2 . Heck Biden is even going to build more walls with this bill. Though its dead in the water with the house. Yes they are playing politics but do you think the Democrats would be giving up so much if it wasn't killing them in the polls
Biden has the worst numbers of any incumbent president worse than Jimmy Carter but there is lots of time to change them . Though if he cared about the country he would drop out
The immigration deal, if it goes through, would be a very very very significant win for Biden coming the elections. It could make the difference. Move to the center, admitting past mistakes, for the good of the country, that kind of stuff is really big with independents, males especially (women he is winning already because of abortion and other issues).
What is the current thinking regarding "shy" Trump voters, namely those who intend to vote for him but don't confess to that in polls or otherwise? I remember that being seen as a major factor in why 2016 went the way it did.
It was not. National polling errors were completely standard in 2016 and 2020. If anything, the opposite is true. Trump runs up the score a little more than expected in rural areas with non college whites and poorer rural areas where there is no stigma associated with being an uneducated Trump supporter. If shy Trump supporters was a thing you’d expect him to over perform in cities and educated suburbs and he has not.
It was not. National polling errors were completely standard in 2016 and 2020. If anything, the opposite is true. Trump runs up the score a little more than expected in rural areas with non college whites and poorer rural areas where there is no stigma associated with being an uneducated Trump supporter. If shy Trump supporters was a thing you’d expect him to over perform in cities and educated suburbs and he has not.
afaik he did overperform in white heavy urban areas in 2016 (vs polls, at least in purple states) but not in 2020
Sorry for the delayed reply. I've been writing 10k words about j4 hand.
Generally, my response is, look at the Republican party. I assume we all understand that we are talking about the parties, i.e. the politicians, big donors, think tankers, cable news people, insiders etc, and not voters.
Republicans run on and give speeches for some pretty good stuff. Though I lean left/lib, there sure is a lot of government waste and cutting it would be a great idea. Maybe our deficit and debt are too high and we should scale them back. Reps stand for individual rights, private property etc. That's why they hate things like civil forfeiture and should oppose the patriot act and various other big brother type stuff. They are also big advocates for small businesses, and therefore opponents of corporate welfare and other measures that destroy Main Street on behalf of Wall Street. Did you ever watch Trump's speech accepting the nom at the convention the first time? Dyn-o-mite!
Ike built the interstate highway system. Under Nixion, the top tax rate was 50% and we slashed military spending as the Vietnam war had ended, so obviously you'd spend less on the military in peace time, right?
Of course, in reality, the Republican party never implements any of that stuff, even when in power. They love deficit spending, but they just want to borrow to fund tax cuts for the rich and corporations. They go along with CF, the Patriot Act and all that stuff. And they want every mom and pop shop in the country replaced by Wall Mart, Starbucks, etc. There might be a handful of individuals who would actually implement the good stuff if they had the chance, but the party as a whole would never allow it.
Given that the Democratic party is funded by mostly the same corporations, and by wealthy individuals and that they get the same speaking fees and jobs for themselves and their families I submit that they have pretty much the same agenda, though they are given the role of "good cop" to the R's "bad cop."
they do
The bolded is such an obvious lie that it's silly. Dems have been pushing for Euro-style healthcare reform for decades. Republicans have been blocking these reforms. It's fine if you don't want to vote for the lesser of two evils, but at least be honest with us.
lol
I can't believe an intelligent person with an internet connection believes the Dem party as a whole wants to put some of their biggest donors out of business and provide European style... or Japanese, Canadian, Australian, Brazilian.... everyone but us style HC. The corporate welfare scheme/protection racket we now enjoy is called Obamacare of course, after it's founder, who killed the single-payer option before it was proposed and gave us this Heritage Fund-conceived madness, which does make the concession of insuring a few more people than before.
Joe ain't in favor of UHC and passed on the lie that it would create some huge tax burden.
https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/20...
Our dumb azz HC system costs literally double what almost any other country pays, factoring in taxes and all that. It doesn't factor in the social costs of bankruptcies, divorces, untimely deaths of parents and kids and all that goes with that stuff: addiction, mental illness, crime, etc.
I know if you watch enough MSNBC and read enough NYT these seem like inevitable realities that you must accept as a realistic and smart person. But take a step back and think about how crazy this really is. We don't pay a little more. Or even 20 or 30 or 50% more. We pay double, and a lot of us aren't insured and many are underinsured and almost everyone has horror stories about how terrible our system is. Virtually every other rich country and some poorer ones pay half of what we do and everyone has full coverage for life. Dem politicians are deeply dedicated to making sure that never happens here. Why do you think they fought so hard against Bernie, who was crushing Trump in polls, to make sure that more WS friendly, but unpopular figures got the noms?
I havent looked at all of your examples, but two stick out as incorrect. The dems have supported the increase in the min wage fircyears. The Raise the Wage Act has been introduced in Congress by dems several years in a row but the repubs keep voting against it. In FL the min wage was increased only because a citizen initiative, led by prominent democratspased 60-40 to change the FL Constitution. This was necessary because tge repubican cont
So... Dems proposed Obamacare hoping to win over Reps. But it didn't work. So, rather than give us a good HC system, they went with the crappy one anyway? I don't buy it.
You're right and I'm wrong on min wage as Biden joined most other Dem candidates in support of it. But, I'm right insofar as they never passed it, while they easily passed, for example, increased military spending.
Got it. You are one of those people who thinks that voters in swing states like Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina are desperate for progressive Democrats. I wish that were true. I honestly do. But the historical non-viability of progressive politicians in those states in national and state-wide elections strongly suggests that it is not true.
I am one of those people who believes in evidence, like polls. They aren't infallible, but they are the best we have. If they say 82% of voters favor family leave, I guess it's somewhere around there.
If I had to guess, I would guess that many voters in those states favor "progressive" positions like "let's not have the worst HC system in the developed world." But they probably are less likely to agree with left wing identity politics, CRT, extremist trans stuff and so on. You'll find pictures of Pelosi wearing silly African themed costumes and kneeling, but you won't find a picture of her voting to make insider trading illegal for Congress, or canceling some corporate welfare military project and using the money to provide UHC.
On the family leave thing... I suppose it's pointless to spell out why a policy favored by 82% of the GP and 70% of Reps and implemented in almost every country but ours is an objectively good policy. Do you guys actually believe that the Dems have been sincerely trying to get this over the past 30-40 years? With majorities and supermajorities? At times, controlling all 3 branches? It's just a series of crazy coincidences and misfortunes that have stopped it from happening?
ES2 interesting that you mention the Patriot Act (one of the most fascist pieces of legislation ever conceived), which has expired without renewal thanks to Trump.
Interesting analysis about the special election to fill the Santos house seat in NY
Interesting analysis about the special election to fill the Santos house seat in NY
Says a lot when neither candidate wants their leader to campaign for them
Donald Trump's 'total immunity' rant is an argument for a police state
Everybody who votes for Trump this time should be considered complicit in aiding his autocratic ambitions.
Donald Trump's 'total immunity' rant is an argument for a police state
Everybody who votes for Trump this time should be considered complicit in aiding his autocratic ambitions.
Yet he is still winning in the polls
Donald Trump's 'total immunity' rant is an argument for a police state
Everybody who votes for Trump this time should be considered complicit in aiding his autocratic ambitions.
I am failing to think of even one US politician from the last 20 years at any level of the federal government who has exhibited less of a desire to be autocratic or one who is more pro personal choice than trump? I don't think there is one other person who has ran in a national election that would have fought as hard as trump did to give every day people, businesses and individual states as much power as possible during the early stages of covid. Not only was he fighting to give us personal choice on things like masks and the vax, he was also fighting for businesses to choose their own policies and he was fighting to reduce the power of the federal government (of which he was in charge of) and to give power to individual states.
You can hate on trump for a lot of things, but claiming trump is power hungry is one of the oddest things of ever heard of anyone being made fun of for. You probably make fun of Usher for being a bad dancer.
I am failing to think of even one US politician from the last 20 years at any level of the federal government who has exhibited less of a desire to be autocratic or one who is more pro personal choice than trump? I don't think there is one other person who has ran in a national election that would have fought as hard as trump did to give every day people, businesses and individual states as much power as possible during the early stages of
You are delusional.
I am failing to think of even one US politician from the last 20 years at any level of the federal government who has exhibited less of a desire to be autocratic or one who is more pro personal choice than trump? I don't think there is one other person who has ran in a national election that would have fought as hard as trump did to give every day people, businesses and individual states as much power as possible during the early stages of
Ye he just wanted to play golf and be praised as the best ever wherever he went.
As you mention he had the biggest opportunity in a generation to grab actual autocratic power (the previous one was 9/11), congress could have easily passed laws allowing potus wide powers to "manage the covid emergency", he never even asked for them (afaik).
He ordered several federal agencies to reduce the autocratic regulatory violence they inflicted upon society (unfortunately not the FDA , which he let destroy the small business vaping market).
It has always been quite incredible to hear claims that he was dictatorial lol. Claims of racism i get, under the "all encompassing" current leftist definition, almost everyone is racist so, no problem. Claims of him being a liar are objectively true, he lies pathologically even when he has nothing to gain from lying.
But dictator? lol the guy could care less about 90%+ of the actual powers of the presidency and did far less with them than most other presidents
I am failing to think of even one US politician from the last 20 years at any level of the federal government who has exhibited less of a desire to be autocratic or one who is more pro personal choice than trump? I don't think there is one other person who has ran in a national election that would have fought as hard as trump did to give every day people, businesses and individual states as much power as possible during the early stages of
I'm curious why you couched this with "the last 20 years." Was there someone else you had in mind who'd otherwise apply but for it being earlier than 2004? Also, you lost points with "any level of the federal government." That is a very, very sweeping statement and I have to think almost no one can truly speak to that being the case for anything, let alone what you've espoused.
Ye he just wanted to play golf and be praised as the best ever wherever he went.
As you mention he had the biggest opportunity in a generation to grab actual autocratic power (the previous one was 9/11), congress could have easily passed laws allowing potus wide powers to "manage the covid emergency", he never even asked for them (afaik).
He ordered several federal agencies to reduce the autocratic regulatory violence they inflicted upon soci
You've apparently missed the part about being a sociopathic narcissist.
You're exactly right about him not caring about the usual responsibilities that come with being president. He's too busy trying to get everyone to kneel down to him.
He's already made it crystal clear that he will stop at nothing to be dictator trump.
You've apparently missed the part about being a sociopathic narcissist.
You're exactly right about him not caring about the usual responsibilities that come with being president. He's too busy trying to get everyone to kneel down to him.
He's already made it crystal clear that he will stop at nothing to be dictator trump.
Trump left a lot of seats empty, which he could have filled with cronies to exercise actual power (even after his term expired in some cases), if he was power hungry.
He didn't nominate ambassadors to very relevant foreign countries. Federal agency board members. He left the seats vacant blaming democrats for that at times (lol).
That's the behaviour of some seriously weird person sure, but the polar opposite of what a power hungry person would do.
You've apparently missed the part about being a sociopathic narcissist.
You're exactly right about him not caring about the usual responsibilities that come with being president. He's too busy trying to get everyone to kneel down to him.
He's already made it crystal clear that he will stop at nothing to be dictator trump.
What responsibilities as President did he fail on ? Economy was good, Interest rates were low, Gas was cheap, No big conflicts or wars, ISIS was eliminated, Oversaw the development of a vaccine at warp speed , selected three new supreme court judges and a ton of lower court ones.
I would agree he failed on the peaceful transfer of power
But dictator? lol the guy could care less about 90%+ of the actual powers of the presidency and did far less with them than most other presidents
You don't understand how Trump operates. When Trump was in office, he didn't care about extending the power of the White House or trampling on separation of powers as a matter of principle or policy. He also was not motivated by some gauzy vision of an autocratic future for the country after he was gone.
Trump's feeling about how much power the president should have are entirely personal to him. When he was in office, he believed that the president should function more or less as an emperor. If he loses this election and becomes non-viable as a presidential candidate, he will cease to care about the power of the presidency.
That's because Trump doesn't care what happens to the country. The concept of a national interest is entirely foreign to him.
You don't understand how Trump operates. When Trump was in office, he didn't care about extending the power of the White House or trampling on separation of powers as a matter of principle or policy. He also was not motivated by some gauzy vision of an autocratic future for the country after he was gone.
Trump's feeling about how much power the president should have are entirely personal to him. When he was in office, he believed that th
Would you agree in the national interest of the country and the risk of a Donald Trump presidency Joe Biden should step down as the candidate ? If not than does Joe Biden actually care about the national interest of the country if Trump being President will destroy democracy knowing he has a very good chance of losing
