2024 Fantasy Football Thread

2024 Fantasy Football Thread

Welcome to the 2024 fantasy season, where I'm officially addicted to best ball. I've been drafting since the end of January. Through 95 drafts, my exposures are below. The player order is based on current ADP. Some of these ADPs have been quite fluid over the last 3 months, with FAs and rookies moving the most. Most of my exposures are structurally driven, rather than player take driven. Especially at this point in the game, pre-draft.

But there are some players I simply couldn't avoid going heavy on, like McBride and Andrews in the 5th round. I'm actually quite heavy all of the top TEs, minus LaPorta and Kincaid. I also tried to make sure I had at least 1 TE by the end of round 8, with Ferguson being the last of the group.

Also took approaches like attacking Nabers and Odunze harder than MHJ, at their relative prices.

What do we like and not like?






Rookie season is also upon us. Redraft is still 3.5 months away from heating up, but there will be rookie drafts, dynasty startups, and best ball drafts leading up until then.

Good luck to all, and may injuries and variance be kind.

25 April 2024 at 04:46 PM
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3762 Replies

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by Dgoat P

How much playing time do we think Pearsall gets if Aiyuk stays ?


I saw something on (I think ETR) that said Shanahan doesn't like to give his rookies a lot of run.

Not sure how true it is or if Pearsall may be different.

I've mainly been playing him in stacks only (even before I heard that about Shanahan).

He's a 1st round pick and **** happens.


by Dgoat P

How much playing time do we think Pearsall gets if Aiyuk stays ?

Pearsall is really tough for me, especially since I think the odds heavily favor both Deebo and Aiyuk not being traded this season.

On the one hand, he's a first round rookie going in the 12th/13th rounds, so he's a great bet in best ball.

On the other hand, he could be completely boxed out without an injury, especially since I think the 49ers will prefer Jennings for blocking purposes.

And yeah, I'm with newguy. I basically only take Pearsall either with Purdy or opposite Detroit guys. I'm at 3-4%. This also makes me nervous, because in the event Aiyuk or Deebo are moved, Pearsall is going to skyrocket up ADP.


by newguyhere P

I saw something on (I think ETR) that said Shanahan doesn't like to give his rookies a lot of run.

Not sure how true it is or if Pearsall may be different.

I've mainly been playing him in stacks only (even before I heard that about Shanahan).

He's a 1st round pick and **** happens.

They just paid Jennings too so I just don’t see the playing time for him. I don’t think I have any pearsall .


by tarheels2222 P

Pearsall is really tough for me, especially since I think the odds heavily favor both Deebo and Aiyuk not being traded this season.

On the one hand, he's a first round rookie going in the 12th/13th rounds, so he's a great bet in best ball.

On the other hand, he could be completely boxed out without an injury, especially since I think the 49ers will prefer Jennings for blocking purposes.

And yeah, I'm with newguy. I basically only take Pears

I’m not too worried about non-qb w17 negative correlation. Monty could just punch in 2 1yd Tds. As long as the total for the game could be good, I’m happy to correlate any position


Got my first hurts exposure w/o either Ajb or Devonta

Also had all my byes at rb at w6 so went w 7

Do you think Wright w Achane is bad? Mostert w Achane almost for sure is and Mostert with Wright is fine, but wasn’t sure about Achane and Wright

Qb - Hurts, Tua

Rb - Achane, Pollard, Corum, Wright, Gibson, Foreman, Estime

Wr - Reek, Nabers, Kirk, Nuk, Jeudy, Corley, Franklin

Te - Kittle, Goedert


by jimmymcgill8 P

I’m not too worried about non-qb w17 negative correlation. Monty could just punch in 2 1yd Tds. As long as the total for the game could be good, I’m happy to correlate any position

That's kind of how I feel too. But some of the sharper streamers I watched seem to err away from correlating RBs for w17. I need to look into it more.


by jimmymcgill8 P

Got my first hurts exposure w/o either Ajb or Devonta

Also had all my byes at rb at w6 so went w 7

Do you think Wright w Achane is bad? Mostert w Achane almost for sure is and Mostert with Wright is fine, but wasn’t sure about Achane and Wright

Qb - Hurts, Tua

Rb - Achane, Pollard, Corum, Wright, Gibson, Foreman, Estime

Wr - Reek, Nabers, Kirk, Nuk, Jeudy, Corley, Franklin

Te - Kittle, Goedert

I think any 2 combo of that backfield together is fine. Even Mostert w Achane. There were multiple games last year where they both had double digit outings, and this is one of the highest value backfields in the league from both weekly projections and contingent value.

Obviously, that Denver game was an outlier, but if you had both Mostert/Achane, that was like 6% of an average w1-14 advancing score from only 2 players in one single week.

Achane/Wright is nice since Wright is likely more of replacement for Mostert than Achane.


In and amongst all this best ball talk, the scoring for this year's Scott Fish Bowl is insane with a point for every five return yards, and only one required starter at each position with a super flex and 6 (six) flex spots after that... will be cool if I can get in one of their mirror leagues again this season (if running)

Edit - also TE premium to add to the crazy


How much of last season do we need Mostert to replicate?

Age and being injury prone aside he's not a big volume guy. Most of his points came from TDs, and while he had 18 on the ground. 12 of those were within the 5 yard line.

Maybe Jonnu takes away some of those RZ opportunities.

Thoughts?


by sixfour P

In and amongst all this best ball talk, the scoring for this year's Scott Fish Bowl is insane with a point for every five return yards, and only one required starter at each position with a super flex and 6 (six) flex spots after that... will be cool if I can get in one of their mirror leagues again this season (if running)

Edit - also TE premium to add to the crazy

I've seen some crazy posts and thoughts so far. And of course, some complaints, as well. I don't play, but I think it's cool how Scott changes things up year to year.

I've seen some draft boards with people taking 3-4 TEs in the first 5-6 rounds because of the available flex spots + TEP. Seems like RBs and WRs would be way devalued compared to QBs and TEs.

The return yard points is interesting, especially since we aren't really sure how teams are going to play these new kickoff rules. I've seen talk of more high profile WRs/RBs getting in the mix. We'll see if that actually comes to fruition.


by newguyhere P

How much of last season do we need Mostert to replicate?

Age and being injury prone aside he's not a big volume guy. Most of his points came from TDs, and while he had 18 on the ground. 12 of those were within the 5 yard line.

Maybe Jonnu takes away some of those RZ opportunities.

Thoughts?

I'm just drafting him at cost and not really thinking about it. I think a lot of that risk is baked in. I'm not sure I'll be keen to have him in redraft, but he should still have some decent weeks for best ball if he stays healthy.


by tarheels2222 P

I think any 2 combo of that backfield together is fine. Even Mostert w Achane. There were multiple games last year where they both had double digit outings, and this is one of the highest value backfields in the league from both weekly projections and contingent value.

Obviously, that Denver game was an outlier, but if you had both Mostert/Achane, that was like 6% of an average w1-14 advancing score from only 2 players in one single week

I think the difference between Achane/Mostert this year vs last is the price. Last yr you were getting both after rd10 this year Achane has a 2nd/3rd rd price and Mostert is going in the 90’s, so it’s just a ton of capital to take both, especially since you need Achane to be amazing to pay off his tag


Fair points.


Yeah, I think I'd be out on Achane at ADP but Mostert (and Wright for that matter) could well outperform


by sixfour P

Yeah, I think I'd be out on Achane at ADP but Mostert (and Wright for that matter) could well outperform

I just think Wright needs 2 injuries to be relevant . I agree in Mostert though .


by Dgoat P

I just think Wright needs 2 injuries to be relevant . I agree in Mostert though .

Possibly, but Miami have shown that they can support two fantasy relevant RBs at the same time already, and neither of the main two have been the greatest examples of workhorses


I think Wright only needs 1 injury to relevance, as I don’t think McDaniel wants either Mostert or Achane to be volume snap share guys. I think he prefers 40-60% ranges for both, especially for the way they scheme.

The bigger concern for Wright is that we are assuming a 4th round rookie is immediately plugged in with an injury. But it’s a risk worth taking in round 13.

Wright was explosive in college, but the Tenn scheme is more gimmicky than most college teams.


Wasn’t Mostert close to a bell cow when Achane was hurt ?


Not for the most part.

Achane was inactive in w1 and Mostert played 73%. Achane only played 10% in w2 and Mostert played 73%. Then Achane's role increased in w3-5.

Achane missed w6-w12 with a bye in w10 and Mostert played 61%, 53%, 56%, 56%, 79%, and 60%. So really only w11.

Then Mostert missed w17-18 and Achane played 48% and 63%.


QB - Stafford, Watson, Carr

RB - Kamara, Monty, Brooks, Allgeier, Shipley

WR - Chase, Kupp, DK, Cooper, Ridley, Shaheed, Robinson, Malik, Gallup

TE - Njoku, Kmet, Juwan


Seems pretty good. Might have rather had 6/8 for RB/WR, but that’s my only small nitpick.


I know it's not necessary, but I just felt like building a "super" team. On the bright side, I didn't even really need to reach to make it happen.

All 3 QBs are correlated with at least one player in all 3 playoff matchups. What made it kind of easy is DET and NE both play BUF, and TB and NE both play LAC.

Don't know if I needed a 3rd TE, but Hunter fell a few spots, and made it easy to take Maye.

QB - Goff, Baker, Maye

RB - Walker, Brooks, Zeke, Gus, Khalil, Shipley

WR - ARSB, Deebo, DJ, Godwin, Jamo, M. Wilson, Baker, Jennings

TE - Kincaid, Otton, Henry


by newguyhere P

I know it's not necessary, but I just felt like building a "super" team. On the bright side, I didn't even really need to reach to make it happen.

All 3 QBs are correlated with at least one player in all 3 playoff matchups. What made it kind of easy is DET and NE both play BUF, and TB and NE both play LAC.

Don't know if I needed a 3rd TE, but Hunter fell a few spots, and made it easy to take Maye.

QB - Goff, Baker, Maye

RB - Walker, Brooks, Z

This team is really nice . No critiques


Do you guy's do any Sit n Goes? Are these just contest that pay out the top points within the pod?


by mongidig P

Do you guy's do any Sit n Goes? Are these just contest that pay out the top points within the pod?

I don’t I prefer the bigger contests . But I think they just pay out top 2 or 3 of each pod .


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