2024 ELECTION THREAD
The next presidential race will be here soon! Please see current Bovada odds. Thoughts?
We've had some polling now past labor day. I'm genuinely swurprised the left is as happy as they are with their chances, at least based on my impression. This is still the worst spot dems have been in at this point in the cycle in 20 years.
In retrospect they were probably in worse shape in 2016 but polls weren't built to capture what they now capture (and "shy trump voters" aren't a thing these days imho)
We've had some polling now past labor day. I'm genuinely swurprised the left is as happy as they are with their chances, at least based on my impression. This is still the worst spot dems have been in at this point in the cycle in 20 years.
Disagree entirely
2016 was and will always be the worst point in the cycle Dems have been in cuz nothing indicated what was to come was remotely possible
Dems aren’t unaware of the possibility of trump winning no matter how much of a batshit lunatic he sounds like which is why biden isn’t the nom and they actually tried to get a running mate who had sick vibes
If the election were held right this second Dems would win, and not by much at all (despite what I can only assume will be a 5-7 million popular vote lead) but the DNC is at least showing they aren’t resting on their laurels. That has to count for something
We've had some polling now past labor day. I'm genuinely surprised the left is as happy as they are with their chances, at least based on my impression. This is still the worst spot dems have been in at this point in the cycle in 20 years.
Hillary Clinton on this date led in electoral votes by like 337 to 201 but there were a large number of undecided voters in swing states. Had they divided evenly she would have won assuming the polls stayed the same. But the undecideds went heavily to Trump and Hilary lost ground in the polls. And while Biden looked good as well, he ultimately had the same problem with undecided voters and came within 44,000 votes of losing it all.
As it stands now this is where Nate Silver, then the founder of 538.com and now on his own, has things as of 9/7/24 ("Un" is Undecided and potential 3rd Party):
AZ: Hillary trailed by 3.4% with 8.6% Un (Trump won by 4.1%), Kamala trails by 0.4% with 8.4% Un
FL: Hillary was up by 1.6% with 6.9% Un (Trump won by 1.3%), Kamala trails by 4.3% with 7.5% Un (the funny thing was that 3 weeks later Hillary was trailing by 1%)
GA: Hillary trailed by 1.8% with 7.2% Un (Trump won by 5.7%), Kamala leads by 0.4% with 7.4% Un
ME2: Hillary trailed by 3.8% with 13.2% Un, Nate Silver has no data on the 2nd district or Maine itself but the poll that came out favors Kamala by 5% with 7% Un
MI: Hillary was up by 4.3% with 7.8% Un (Trump won by 0.3%), Kamala leads by 1.8% with 5.8% Un
NC: Hillary was up by 0.4% with 7.6% Un (Trump won by 3.8%), Kamala trails by 1% with 3.2% Undecided
NH: Hillary was up by 3.8% with 10.4% Un (Hillary won by 0.4%), Kamala leads by 7.2% with 6.8% Un (Hillary barely held on here and Trump started an investigation to show he won the state...)
NV: Hillary was up by 2.8% with 8.1% Un (Hillary won by 2.4%), Kamala leads by 0.7% with 3.4% Un
OH: Hillary was up by 0.9% with 9.1% Un and 3 weeks later Hillary was down by 2% and ended up losing by 8.6% --- OH is not up for grabs in 2024
PA: Hillary was up by 4% with 7.6% Un (Trump won by 1.2%), Kamala leads by 0.6% with 4.6% Un
WI: Hillary was up by 3.7% with 8.9% Un (Trump won by 1%), Kamala leads by 2.4% with 4.4% Un
So its not clear what is going to happen. Nate Silver has Trump as the 60% favorite right now. But this is likely based on the past two elections undecided voters going heavily to Trump. The electoral votes based on Nate Silver's current poll analysis has Kamala winning by 291 to 245 (not including ME2 or NE2).
Part of the reason Democrats are optimistic is that Biden isn't running and Trump is old. It is possible that Trump will carry undecideds. It is also possible that Kamala will decline in the polls (as seems to be the case now though the decline has been slight recently). It is also possible that the debate (or debates) will be a decisive factor.
It should be noted that the undecideds in the 3 key swing states (MI, PA, WI) are significantly lower than they were in 2016 at this point in time.
In retrospect they were probably in worse shape in 2016 but polls weren't built to capture what they now capture (and "shy trump voters" aren't a thing these days imho)
They never were. All the error in 2016 was fully explainable by normal error plus under sampling non-college educated whites.
he literally called it a fact of life in the quote. are you saying that because he qualified it with not liking that is it a fact of life means that he did not categorize it as a fact of life?
give me a ****ing break you troll
in my search for this bethune biopic i did find this hilarious one on snow - not me but i do actually know the women who plays his wife quite well
skip to 3:37 to see what happens when you cast a random expat you know through your friend circle into a dramatic role in a film 😀
he literally called it a fact of life in the quote. are you saying that because he qualified it with not liking that is it a fact of life means that he did not categorize it as a fact of life?
give me a ****ing break you troll
not one to defend vance but i think the headline was misleading and inaccurate
to say "school shootings are a fact of life" generally means there's nothing that can be done and we have to accept them
he actually said "it's a fact of life that psychos see schools as soft targets to make headlines" and then proposed measures to counteract
Which is calling school shootings a fact of life. He literally said it. It's neither inaccurate nor misleading.
do you know what literally means? do you read anything beyond headlines? rhetorical questions, i know from previous conversations you do not
Yes, and he literally said it. I read the entire quote and context and it's INCREDIBLY clear that he both was saying and believes that school shootings are a fact of life. Denying this is HILARIOUS.
Yes, and he literally said it. I read the entire quote and context and it's INCREDIBLY clear that he both was saying and believes that school shootings are a fact of life. Denying this is HILARIOUS.
do you agree or disagree with this statement:
to say "school shootings are a fact of life" generally means there's nothing that can be done and we have to accept them
Even if you desperately tried to split hairs and tried to argue that "this" in "this is a fact of life" refers to pyschos seeing schools as soft targets, WHAT DOES THAT RESULT IN?
jfc this isn't even hard.
an entirely different intended meaning, see above
reading comprehension or the english language or?
No, it doesn't. At all. I'm so sick to death of all the absolute trolls on this forum that just deny reality even when it stares them right in the face. I should've added you to the ignore list a long time ago.
so he essentially said that "the only way to stop a bad guy with a gun is a good guy with a gun". kool
moar gunz, just one more cop bro, etc
he literally called it a fact of life in the quote. are you saying that because he qualified it with not liking that is it a fact of life means that he did not categorize it as a fact of life?
give me a ****ing break you troll
Do you disagree it's a fact of life?
Kamala said women should stay in violent marriages.
Stop being so obtuse.
Even if you desperately tried to split hairs and tried to argue that "this" in "this is a fact of life" refers to pyschos seeing schools as soft targets, WHAT DOES THAT RESULT IN?
jfc this isn't even hard.
split hairs by using the actual literal grammatical meaning of his statement?
regardless, school shootings are indeed a fact of life. and the solution is to ban guns. if someone said this then liberals would go crazy with joy.
To elaborate: he doesn't mean psychos see schools as a soft target are the fact of life because he immediately tells us how you would fix that. That doesn't make sense. If it's a fact of life, you can't fix it. And if he did mean that he's an even bigger idiot for that reason plus that type of security would have done absolutely nothing to change what happened in this case. This wasn't a psycho walking through the front door, this was a kid that was already in the school.
No. He was calling school shootings a fact of life or he's even more of an idiot than that would indicate. Those are the two choices.
Conservative apologists bending over backwards to excuse this df-ery are embarrassing.
this is the dumbest, most pointless, semantical argument ..... in the last 24 hours anyway
just move past it and report to the gun control thread already
Yes I don't know that "happy" is the word I'd use to describe the Dems situation, at least among people with any basic level of awareness. It's still pretty tense. It's more about the outlook being vastly improved over the trajectory things were on when Biden was in the race, especially post-debate. Sometimes a tie score feels relatively good.
If the election were held right this second Dems would win, and not by much at all
I'm not convinced this is true. I expect that "undecided" is again going to prove to be where a lot of Trump voters park for the polls, and many aren't answering these polls. Of course I'm aware that many pollsters are doing what they can to account for these problems but we can't know how good a job they're doing.
And for what's it's worth--absolutely nothing, just observation--I just drove from D.C. up to Mechanicsburg PA and Trump is convincingly crushing the lawn sign battle and not just in the red districts. With no other information other than knowing PA was a swing state you'd think we were headed for a Reagan '84 sweep. We have way more information in reality, but still in an election polling this close and with good reason to question poll accuracy to begin with it's really hard to completely ignore even anecdotal stuff.
